1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Clinton]

EAX morning discussion:

Looking ahead to Monday-Tuesday, long range solutions from the GFS
and ECMWF continue to bring a strong H500 trough off the southern
Plains and across the Ouachitas to Southern Ozarks. Looking at GEFS
Mean H500 height anomalies, a strong trough will emerge, but given
spreads in the GEFS members, there remains great uncertainty in the
track; which matters greatly for precip amounts and types. Looking
at temp profiles and specifically where the boundary layer wet bulb
zero line resides, there`s a chance the bulk of the precipitation
will out pace the colder temps. However, regardless of that
scenario, decent TROWAL signature develops on the trailing side of
the upper low. The 00Z ECMWF has a more bullish northeastward track,
which would suggest greater snow potential, but the GEFS and GFS
Deterministic have maintained the southern track along the Ozarks. I
can say with confidence, there will be precipitation Monday into
Tuesday. I can say with modest (50 to 60%) confidence there will be
a period of all snow, likely late Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. I do not have confidence to go into specific amounts at
this time. Given warm surface/BL temps, much of monday will be rain
or rain/snow mix until the late Monday night early Tuesday timeframe
with temps cool off for all snow. This variability has made a mess
of forecasting snow amounts at this time. For now, continue to
monitor forecasts as we move closer to the event.

[Money]

37 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EPO doesn't go negative until the 10th so I would bet the artic air gets held up and pours south behind the storm on the 14th and 15th similar to what the GFS is showing this morning and the Euro.

With no snow anywhere in the country I hardly doubt this 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Money said:

With no snow anywhere in the country I hardly doubt this 

The PV is coming south of Hudson Bay by the 14th/15th...

[GDR]

Well looks like I was right this thing is pushing south

[bud2380]

7 minutes ago, GDR said:

Well looks like I was right this thing is pushing south

The 00z Euro came way north from the previous run.  I don't think anyone could say with any certainty at this point what path it will take.  We are still 120 hours from the storm taking shape and about 168 hours from it getting to the Great Lakes.  Many more changes will happen between now and then.  

[bud2380]

12z ICON at 132 hours.  Storm is getting going in earnest in the plains.

 

[bud2380]

Fairly similar to last night's Euro.  The lead wave of energy puts down a lot of snow into NE and KS, but just stalls out there and doesn't move into Iowa.  Then the storm seems to regather and strengthen with the strong deformation band as the SLP heads towards STL.  

 

[hawkstwelve]

To bud's point above, Monday's system is still very much wrapped up in the Aleutian trough and isn't forecast to break away and start moving towards the CONUS for another 36-48 hours. I would say we have at least until then before the models get a better handle on things.

That being said, I do think this system will primarily stay to the south of the Northern Plains.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Fairly similar to last night's Euro.  The lead wave of energy puts down a lot of snow into NE and KS, but just stalls out there and doesn't move into Iowa.  Then the storm seems to regather and strengthen with the strong deformation band as the SLP heads towards STL.  

 

One thing I notice right away on the ICON is that it's warmer out ahead compared to other models.  There's like no cold air north of the low... it's relegated to areas west.

[hawkstwelve]

Just now, Hoosier said:

One thing I notice right away on the ICON is that it's warmer out ahead compared to other models.  There's like no cold air north of the low... it's relegated to areas west.

I wouldn't put too much weight on the ICON. It's been flailing around even worse than the other models, and that's saying something.

[bud2380]

I never put much weight in the ICON, but at this range, at least it's another data point.  

[bud2380]

SLP heads into central IL

 

[hawkstwelve]

Some early GFS comparisons.

12z vs 00z...

[bud2380]

GFS staying further south than the Euro. 

[hawkstwelve]

By early Tuesday AM...

[bud2380]

Kansas is the place to be this run.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Through Tuesday afternoon the largest differences are over Kansas and the northern extent of precip...

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z CMC...

[hawkstwelve]

So far this morning's model runs are trending drier on the northern half of the system but wetter through the heart of it.

[bud2380]

Close up of the GFS.  Don't need much of a shift north to get Iowa back in the game.  But the GFS continues to favor a southern track. 

 

[Tom]

Ozark Nation bullseye???  

[Tom]

Yes Please...

[bud2380]

On the whole the GFS seemed to be further NW with the snow shield this run vs. the 00z run.  Not by much though.  

[bud2380]

The Canadian definitely went south from the 00z run.  And increased totals dramatically in parts of KS & MO. 

[KTPmidMO]

Nice run through Missouri again with the 12z GFS. I'd love for this to pan out. First screenshot is kuchera ratio, second is 10:1. What kind of ratios are we expecting with this event here in Missouri, less than 10:1??

[winterfreak]

If we get missed to the south…

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Close up of the GFS.  Don't need much of a shift north to get Iowa back in the game.  But the GFS continues to favor a southern track. 

 

Would be nice to see those heavier totals continue farther northeast.  Not sure if it has something to do with the occlusion (although sfc low continues to deepen slightly as it heads to the Lakes) or some other reason.

[hawkstwelve]

Starting to turn my attention more to the system(s) later next week as this one is appearing out of reach for up here.

Of course, things can and will still change but I would need a very sizable shift in order to end up scoring from this one. Luckily there looks to be a couple more chances to break my under-1-inch storm curse this season.

[Iceresistance]

If you want to see crazy, then you will get crazy

[bud2380]

10 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Nice run through Missouri again with the 12z GFS. I'd love for this to pan out. First screenshot is kuchera ratio, second is 10:1. What kind of ratios are we expecting with this event here in Missouri, less than 10:1??

Models right now are showing snow falling with temps in the 30's, based on the GFS snow ratios are worse than 10:1.  This is going to be a very wet, heavy snow for Missouri for sure.  

[bud2380]

UK rolling in.  120 hours.

 

[bud2380]

UK really takes this south. Ends here, so can't tell what happens exactly, but you can anticipate it would take it into the OHV vs. the GL.  

 

[bud2380]

One thing that is showing up consistently on almost all models is this lead wave of energy that extends even into southern SD, but this piece of energy weakens dramatically and doesn't really shift east.  Instead it seems to get swalloped up by the energy to the south.  Normally from here you would expect to see a northeast movement to the precip or ENE at least, but it doesn't exactly pan out that way.  I think the storm slows down a little here and reorganizes while it strengthens further south, pulling the snow shield with it.  We'll see if the 00z Euro was an aberration or it holds onto a further north solution.  But the models, outside of the Euro, right now favor areas south of Iowa.

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 06z GEFS through early Tuesday. A nice jump up for many spots...

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

UK really takes this south. Ends here, so can't tell what happens exactly, but you can anticipate it would take it into the OHV vs. the GL.  

 

Quite south indeed

[hawkstwelve]

By Tuesday evening. A little odd how much Iowa increased on the mean this run.

Not sure what to make of that yet.

[bud2380]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

By Tuesday evening. A little odd how much Iowa increased on the mean this run.

Not sure what to make of that yet.

Whoa!  Was not expecting to see that.  You just gave me more optimism up here, LOL.  Dangerous thing to have at 120+ hours out.

[jsut]

My eyes are a lot farther east that most of you folks, but this is a fun one to watch. I'm driving from Toronto east of Quebec city on the weekend to ski next week, and I'm interested to see how much this is going to dump on us while we're skiing, as well as what i'm going to be coming home to in the driveway. We've had near nil snow so far this year, and this looks like it has the potential to either shut Toronto down for a few days, or do nothing but rain, or anywhere in between.

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

If you want to see crazy, then you will get crazy

I like what we are seeing here. It could always reverse again, but models have steadily trended colder and for the most part further south putting OK back in play for snow, at least potentially. Look at this crazy jump on the CMCE between last night and today. 

We are on the edge of the action now, and if it trends any further we'd be in the bullseye. Some ensemble members show just that. 

 

 

[bud2380]

CMC Ensembles go south, GFS ensembles go north.  This morning DVN called the model runs "psychotic", LOL.  Probably a good term. 

 

 

Deterministic medium range run-to-
runs and variability remain psychotic, with the ensemble means the
way to lean for some comfort for now.