1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[hawkstwelve]

3 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Can you post it?

I'm not on my computer for side-by-side but this is a pretty large shift south when compared to even it's 12z run. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[james1976]

TC shut out on the 0Z GFS

[hawkstwelve]

Large improvement for Missouri on both models. 

[Money]

GFS very similar to 18z and gem is almost identical to GFS now 

6 days away 

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Can you post it?

GFS with a monster hit for us.

[KTPmidMO]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

GFS with a monster hit for us.

Heck yeah! That's what I like to see! What an improvement here for MO.

[winterfreak]

Let's get it to bomb out a little further west please.

[hawkstwelve]

If this is how the track ultimately ends up, the AI models are going to score a huge win. The GFS and CMC now look very similar to what they've been showing - consistently keeping the storm to the south with only a slight extension of the precip shield to the north on the most recent runs. They haven't wavered from that hardly at all. It'll be an impressive victory for the young chaps. 

[KTPmidMO]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

If this is how the track ultimately ends up, the AI models are going to score a huge win. The GFS and CMC now look very similar to what they've been showing - consistently keeping the storm to the south with only a slight extension of the precip shield to the north on the most recent runs. They haven't wavered from that hardly at all. It'll be an impressive victory for the young chaps. 

Can you post the most recent AI models please?

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Heck yeah! That's what I like to see! What an improvement here for MO.

I should have said monster hit for you, it's a good hit for me but 12+ in your neck of the woods.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS tries to share the wealth and fill in the gaps with the Wed/Thurs system. 

[hawkstwelve]

15 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Can you post the most recent AI models please?

Kind of hard to read and keep in mind it's in mm, but here's the total precip from the 12z run of the GraphCast. 

[bud2380]

There are still plenty more changes in store for this storm. At 168 hours the GFS has the low south of Chicago. That’s an eternity away in weather forecasting. 

[Grizzcoat]

UKMET-

[winterfreak]

UKMET is juicy at 144:

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS well N of it's operational run--

[hawkstwelve]

And of course the GEFS goes north as it's OP shifts south. I mean, come on... 

[Grizzcoat]

Not only N - but increased totals by about 25% compared to 12 and 18Z runs-- Go figure-

 

[Grizzcoat]

Variables that still need to be worked out are obviously numerous at this range. One that is clearly an issue is if true Arctic air will get pulled down right behind this system ? or - will the low pressure parade coming in from the NW USA limit it's intrusion?   If the Arctic air is allowed down it will only make this system more dynamic but then likely shut down the low pressure parade for a time. You can see the GEFS struggling with this tonight---  18Z and 00z  

 

Fun times ahead.

[gabel23]

7 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Variables that still need to be worked out are obviously numerous at this range. One that is clearly an issue is if true Arctic air will get pulled down right behind this system ? or - will the low pressure parade coming in from the NW USA limit it's intrusion?   If the Arctic air is allowed down it will only make this system more dynamic but then likely shut down the low pressure parade for a time. You can see the GEFS struggling with this tonight---  18Z and 00z  

 

Fun times ahead.

Both AO and NAO should help the cause! Bring on a monster; I just hate to see that snow hole showing up on both models tonight. Let's see what the EURO has to say. 

[Hoosier]

44 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

There are still plenty more changes in store for this storm. At 168 hours the GFS has the low south of Chicago. That’s an eternity away in weather forecasting. 

It already feels like we've been tracking this thing forever.  

[Grizzcoat]

Just now, Hoosier said:

It already feels like we've been tracking this thing forever.  

Likely because for the most reading there has been very little to track.  But yeah I agree- 144-168 out is FOREVER in weather forecasting. I still like my North call from day or so ago- and by N - I mean MN/WI and not my home here in IA. Just a gut feeling..

[gabel23]

32 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Not only N - but increased totals by about 25% compared to 12 and 18Z runs-- Go figure-

 

Been in the bullseye from the GEFS for the past two days; It has for sure increased. What could go wrong......

[gabel23]

Euro is going nuts for the central plains wow. 

[winterfreak]

00z EURO:

[Money]

Wow at the Euro. Much more QPF and further north than any run so far

[gabel23]

Monster over Chicago.

[MKEstorm]

Ugh! Why does this have to be 6 days away! I like the snow totals the Euro is showing now, lol.

[Grizzcoat]

another jump or two like that N and it will be in SD/MN with L going right over DSM.  Actually- that is what I think is going to happen.

[Hoosier]

You can see the potential temp issues near the western shore of Lake Michigan. This could be an issue even with a farther south track, but a farther south track would obviously make it more likely to keep precip as snow as warmer air aloft would be kept at bay.  In that scenario, the main question wouldn't really be precip type, but rather the accumulation efficiency for areas near the lakeshore.

 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Money]

You can definitely tell the trend last few runs is for better gulf connection and more precip 

 

06z GFS is continuing that 

[Grizzcoat]

I say this every year. And especially at this range outside 90 hours- 06Z/18Z GFS does not apply current upper air soundings.

Why do you think the CMC/UKMET/EURO only run out past 90 hours WITH upper air soundings? Yes the argument can be made that the system is 6 more hours "closer" -- but what is 6 hours without "new"  upper air data past 90 hrs?  = probably a funky run past 90 hours. Just my .02

 

[Clinton]

6z GFS almost to far south for my liking

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Variables that still need to be worked out are obviously numerous at this range. One that is clearly an issue is if true Arctic air will get pulled down right behind this system ? or - will the low pressure parade coming in from the NW USA limit it's intrusion?   If the Arctic air is allowed down it will only make this system more dynamic but then likely shut down the low pressure parade for a time. You can see the GEFS struggling with this tonight---  18Z and 00z  

 

Fun times ahead.

EPO doesn't go negative until the 10th so I would bet the artic air gets held up and pours south behind the storm on the 14th and 15th similar to what the GFS is showing this morning and the Euro.

[Clinton]

6z GEFS