You could internal variability (ENSO/PMM and AMM) masks the aerosol signal, but you would expect substantial mid/high latitude SSTA warming with a 3-year niña as observed from 2021-23, and while that did occur, it attenuated with the flip to El Niño.
No idea. Just adding in the current SSTA map which shows the warmest areas are where the largest reductions have occurred. I am sure there are a million variables.
What’s your point, exactly? SSTAs at the latitudes with greatest aerosol reductions have cooled since 2020 in the seasonal means, even if they are presently warmer than average.
I don’t see how this contradicts what I stated previously.
It’s a reasonable large scale pattern progression given WPAC MJO but almost certainly too deep with the NE-Pacific Low (and too amplified in general).
Would be some wild severe setups here if it verified, though.