I'm really just waiting on my favorite pollster to do the battleground polling. They're fundraising for PA, WI, MI, OH, IA, MN. Getting close, so maybe will have a good picture of it after this weekend.
In 2020 Biden won Wisconsin by 20,682 votes. He won Dane County (Madison) by 34,905 more in 20' than Hilary won it in 2016. So essentially the improvement in that county won him the election. The shift in Milwaukee and Dane was a combined 55,197 in 2020. The overall statewide shift was about 45,000 votes, so in all other counties Trump did marginally better in 2020, and still lost.