Octobers with < 2” of rain in Olympia: 2006, 2002, 1993, 1987, 1983, 1980, 1978, 1974, 1972, 1964, 1952. Useless. Good winters in 06/07, 83/84, 78/79, 72/73. Bad winters in 02/03, 87/88, 80/81, 74/75. Haven’t looked at 93/94, 64/65, 52/53. But there is no predictive value regardless.

That’s because the PDO covaries w/ ENSO/IPWP on a lag. If you calculate years where PDO/ENSO are out of phase during boreal autumn (e.g. 2023/24(-/+), 2016/17(+/-) 2012/13(-/+), 2009/10(-/+), 1995/96(+/-), 1983/84(+/-), etc, the correlation to both 500mb patterns and temps/precip over the lower-48 vanishes completely.

So are you when you post stuff about Trump, but never say a single negative thing about what Biden/Harris say However 25 years ago when I was a kid, the country was more religious, more patriotic and pretty much everyone thought socialism was a bad idea. Today more than 50% of Biden voters have a positive view of socialism and people who are like most of the country was 25 years ago are considered to be far-right nut jobs.

@Front Ranger I decided to calculate the statistical significance between October precipitation and DJF average temperature in Olympia, WA, using spearman’s ρ. Result: essentially no relationship. Actually a very weak negative relationship with no statistical significance. data used: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?wa6114 calculator: https://www.statskingdom.com/correlation-calculator.html

Yes. The winds have seemed far lighter than feared. Especially since I'm probably in the windiest spot in the CWA. I'd say today's been breezy but nothing to write home about.