Go back and reread what I bolded. How are you objectively quantifying: in most years the true summery stretch with very dry/warm weather isn't kicking is much earlier or staying much later than historically normal. That clearly reads as an opinion unbounded by any objective metrics.

Drudge is thinking this could be a replay of 2012 where a very close election many people thought Romney could win ended up turning into an easy Obama win. It's possible, though in that case Obama's people were always confident. This one is different because internal polling on both sides is showing things moving more towards Trump than the public polling is indicating. I'm hearing Trump's folks ran 3 internals in WI this week and he led in every one of them, and Harris folks have her down 3% there. They also have her down in NC.

I actually think it could make a little bit of a difference overall if he does manage to win the popular vote. But I'd still expect plenty of loud protesting and rioters in various places anyway.

Yeah, I suppose it could depress turnout. But on the other hand Trump's positions are so much "worse" on these issues for people who hold those views. I don't see what point of sitting it out is. It would be like a pro-lifer not voting for Trump because he says he won't sign a national abortion ban.

The 2008 comparison was made earlier. It's very rare but I guess looking back the 2008-09 cold season pretty much avoided any real jet extensions the whole time aside from a moderate one for a week or so in early/mid November 2008. The only other cold seasons that come to mind that pretty much avoided a strong jet were 1976-77 and 2000-01, the latter of which had a ton of rex blocking and sent much of the Pacific energy into CA. So a pretty mixed track record with winters like that.