00z CMC with a big time improvement over it's 12z run. Huge shift towards the other models. It's kind of a hybrid of the two routes with a couple small energies but also rolling into a larger system near the end.

If the GFS doesn't trend back to cold...might be time to throw in the towel for the entire winter.

My guess is that the GFS in the long range will be on the warmer side of its ensemble suite, but there will be a lot of spaghetti..... aaaaaaaas one should expect with the long range GFS

This is one chilly looking GFS run. Looks like a nice overrunning event up your way. Has that early season gradient look on a lot of the models lately. Just happy to finally get some moisture here in KC. Man did we need it.

Same... ENSO signals being weak/muddy and the SPV flexing a bit have me questioning whether an Arctic event this winter is a slam dunk. My fault for ever making definitive statements about long range forecasting! A slow MJO is good though if we do get into a favorable pattern... and a slow MJO we do have