I think there is more to this then there seems. 6z AIFS ens is quite chilly and moved towards gfs. I don’t know why we think any model would handle a complex ridge merger over the goa with a bunch of tiny troughs very well 10 days out.

January sun doesn’t melt the snow the way a warm, windy rainfall would. Almost 1/2” of rain here this morning with up to 3” forecast through tomorrow. As much as 8” now expected for the west coast with more along the ridges. Should be some minor river flooding as well. So far the snow level is fairly low though. Still snowing down to the base of Mt Washington resort.

Gem maybe gets there beyond day 10? Hard to say for sure.

Yep it gets there, looks kinda ugly but yes you are right. It’s very different and not really worth taking stock in

Models really backed off on the QPF here for today’s AR. Great news for the snowpack. I don’t think the sunny weather next week will melt the snowpack as much as an AR would.