Yeah. Deep dgz is nice to have, but you gotta have the lift and enough saturation in there to really take advantage. Overall I'm not that concerned about ratios locally, because even if we underperform on ratios today into early tomorrow, I think we may overperform the modeled ratios later on in the event especially with the increased low level lift in the dgz associated with the lake enhancement/effect.

I don’t know how to tell you this but since we’re really good friends… you have a misshapen dog.

Thats what it's been like here.

Here's what LOT had to say about flake size/ratios and everything else. Basically ratios may underperform, especially for the first part of the storm. Forecast on track with no meaningful changes to previous forecast for the approaching winter storm. I am concerned that lake effect snow could overperform a bit very late tonight into Sunday morning over northeast IL and into northern Lake Co Indiana Sunday afternoon, but confidence is a bit too low to justify an upgrade to a winter storm warning at this time. Large winter storm is slowly approaching the area this afternoon though very dry antecedent air mass is taking some time to saturate from top down. WSR-88D imagery does suggests that the low level dry air is being eroded and expect areas of light snow and flurries to begin making it to the surface soon. Light snow will likely continue tonight, especially south of I-80. Most of the ascent tonight appears to be the result of upper level divergence in the right entrance region of developing upper level jet streak over the western Great Lakes. As such, strongest upward vertical velocities (UVVs) are progged to be above 600 mb, well above the very deep DGZ where weak UVVs are progged to be neutral or even weak subsidence. This suggests that predominant snow type for most of tonight will be smaller flake size and resultant lower snow:liquid ratio (SLR). Nudged the forecast SLR down some, but possibly still too high if the snow tonight is mostly pixie dust and low SLR. Confidence wasn`t high enough to make any big adjustments to snowfall totals, but that is something the evening shift will need to look at for the first half of the event tonight. By early Sunday morning, we start to get into an area of coupled jets with some strengthening mid-level frontogenesis. This could result in a period of stronger UVVs below 600mb and closer to the DGZ. This may produce heavier snowfall rates Sunday morning where larger dendrites result in higher SLRs, at least in mesoscale band(s). The system snow should end from west to east from mid afternoon Sunday through early evening. One wildcard will be the lake enhanced snow late tonight into Sunday. While there will be a strong frontal inversion between 800-850mb through the duration of the event, limiting the depth of the lake induced convective instability. While the depth of the instability looks to be rather shallow, the instability below the inversion will be quite strong with lake-850mb delta T values around 20C. This should result in very strong ascent below the inversion, the majority of which will be smack dab in the middle of the DGZ. I am concerned that seeder-feeder process from strong synoptic ascent above 600mb could result in a band of intense lake effect snow embedded within an area of lighter snow and flurries. Wouldn`t be surprised to see snowfall rates >=1" per hour with the lake enhanced snow Sunday morning into NE IL, gradually shifting into NW IN Sunday afternoon. Certainly a play for totals solidly over 6" into northeast IL if the lake enhancement really gets going, but confidence isn`t high enough to justify an upgrade to a warning at this time. Will be something that later shifts will need to closely watch. Intensity of the lake effect should begin to decrease Sunday evening as it loses seeder-feeder with synoptic snows shifting east of the area. Inversion heights are progged to come up a bit Sunday evening, so did maintain likely pops for LES across northeast IN Sunday evening. By late Sunday evening the LES threat should push east of Porter County, so the midnight expiration time for the winter weather advisory looks good for Lake/Porter Counties. - Izzi