12z ICON with a nice hit next Thursday/Friday.

This is a tad below the belt, and better fits my persona than Chuck’s if we’re being honest.

It's coming! 20210704_153104.mp4 20250608_171344.mp4

It's just Andrew copium since he's not a Hawks fan.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratospheric-warming-2026-polar-vortex-forecast-atmospheric-mjo-interference-winter-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Good discussion here, confirming much of what's been discussed on the forum. A better cold air setup with a more westward orientation. This doesn't portend lowland goods, but it does give us some critical pieces to work with in the middle of the month. The 850 mb temperature anomalies over western Canada are -10 to -15 degrees Celsius once the polar air establishes itself. That makes me less concerned about sun angles and seasonal moderation if the cold air pushes south and establishes itself. This is legit cold air. The big question now is where that ridge sets up. Ensembles still favor a position that's a bit too west for anything interesting in the lowlands, but the trends over the last 48 hours have been slightly better. I'd still put the odds pretty low, but this definitely checks enough boxes to warrant a period of earnest model riding.