Got to give it another month before we get those "another boring climo fall on tap" posts from folks.

Euro brings a pretty potent little trough in at day 9.

Or not. Map looks similar to the June 18 release. Here is the reasoning that they gave: An area of equal chances (EC) of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures stretches from the eastern Northern and Central Plains eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest, the northern Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Upper and Lower Great Lakes into the northern Ohio Valley. The transitory nature of the retrograding ridge and model differences in the ridge placement later in the month drive some of this uncertainty. Additionally, the potential emergence of an active MJO in phase 6/7, combined with El Nino conditions, could favor cooler temperatures over this region. However, because summer teleconnections are typically weaker and often overshadowed by long-term trends, EC is favored over below-normal probabilities. The temperature forecast for Alaska is complex due to an anticipated mid-month pattern shift. A weak tilt toward below-normal temperatures is indicated for southwest Alaska based on early-to-mid-July guidance and persistent below-normal SSTs, while above-normal temperatures are favored in the northeast, primarily supported by Week 3-4 model guidance and above-average temperature trends .