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State temperature extremes likely to be broken

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#1
Scott

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:31 AM

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Now that there is a thread of which temperature extremes that likely won't be broken again, what would you say the state (or maybe others) temperatures are that likely will get broken?  Some records are such anomalies, but some are likely to be broken.

 

As far as heat records go, I think the state record for Utah (117 on 7/5/1985 at St George) will likely be broken sometime in the near future (within the next decade or two).  Several places right near the border have had temperatures hotter than that and the record isn't that far out of the ordinary.  

 

I consider the Utah record the most likely high temperature to be broken in the near future.  

 

106 in Connecticut on 7/15/1995 is another one that I could see getting broken sometime in the near future. 

 

As far as cities go, I believe the 107 in Salt Lake City and the 106 in Grand Junction (Colorado) are likely to be broken sometime in the near future.  

 

I can't think of many State cold records that are likely to be broken anytime soon, but time will tell.


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21<

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   6.45 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches


#2
erik1974

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:51 AM

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     I agree with you Scott on Utah.  The Lytle Ranch station could probably reach 118-120 in the near future.  It probably has gotten that hot, just that there was no station there...


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#3
erik1974

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:54 AM

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     Perhaps North Carolina or Virginia as well.  The 110 readings for these states are dubious, which leaves several 109 readings on various dates.  It is interesting that PA/NJ/WV have legitimately reached 110, but VA and NC have not.


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#4
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:58 AM

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I fully expect Oregon to break a high temp record in the next few years if the strong west ridge pattern persists every summer. Gotta think the 108F all time high here will eventually fall soon.


Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

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#5
Scott

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:03 AM

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     I agree with you Scott on Utah.  The Lytle Ranch station could probably reach 118-120 in the near future.  It probably has gotten that hot, just that there was no station there...

 

Yes, and even during the period of record, there is still a lot of missing data in the summer.  July 2017 was a really hot one in the region and all the data is missing for that month.  The hot summer of 2012 also had a lot of missing data.  There was a good chance that Lytle Ranch could have broken the record or at least come close on 7/8/2017 had the weather station been operating.  


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21<

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   6.45 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches


#6
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:24 AM

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Now that there is a thread of which temperature extremes that likely won't be broken again, what would you say the state (or maybe others) temperatures are that likely will get broken? Some records are such anomalies, but some are likely to be broken.

As far as heat records go, I think the state record for Utah (117 on 7/5/1985 at St George) will likely be broken sometime in the near future (within the next decade or two). Several places right near the border have had temperatures hotter than that and the record isn't that far out of the ordinary.

I consider the Utah record the most likely high temperature to be broken in the near future.

106 in Connecticut on 7/15/1995 is another one that I could see getting broken sometime in the near future.

As far as cities go, I believe the 107 in Salt Lake City and the 106 in Grand Junction (Colorado) are likely to be broken sometime in the near future.

I can't think of many State cold records that are likely to be broken anytime soon, but time will tell.


Much harder to break cold records with UHI, so that’s probably a safer bet. If it’s going to happen, it will probably be somewhere in Midwest or Northeast where urbanization has leveled off (and those regions are also closer to the climatological cold vortex location).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#7
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:27 AM

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Perhaps North Carolina or Virginia as well. The 110 readings for these states are dubious, which leaves several 109 readings on various dates. It is interesting that PA/NJ/WV have legitimately reached 110, but VA and NC have not.


Too much humidity for VA/NC to hit 110*F. See DC..all time record there is only 106*F while Martinsburg WV (well NW beyond the Blue Ridge) has hit 110*F.

Higher dewpoints keep a firm lid on high temperatures around these parts. Very hard to surpass 105*F.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#8
Scott

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:23 PM

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Much harder to break cold records with UHI, so that’s probably a safer bet.

 

 

That's true for cities, but a majority of cold records (and all of the ones out west) were recorded in places where UHI shouldn't be a problem.

 

None of the "cities" that hold the cold records in the Western States have a population of more than 200, unless you discount the Logan Pass reading in Montana.   West Yellowstone has a population of about 1353, making it by far the largest populated area with a state record low in the West.

 

A lot of other areas of the US also have nearly un-populated places holding the cold records.  The biggest exception I can think of are Tallahassee Florida.

 

Too much humidity for VA/NC to hit 110*F. 

 

 

It might be possible, but it would take a powerful heatwave.  Parts of Louisiana and Texas not far from the coast have hit 110 with high humidities.


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21<

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   6.45 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches


#9
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:14 PM

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That's true for cities, but a majority of cold records (and all of the ones out west) were recorded in places where UHI shouldn't be a problem.

None of the "cities" that hold the cold records in the Western States have a population of more than 200, unless you discount the Logan Pass reading in Montana. West Yellowstone has a population of about 1353, making it by far the largest populated area with a state record low in the West.


Interesting. Definitely different out West. Around here the majority of the cold records have been UHI’d out of contention, though some all-time monthly records have still been set locally in recent years (Feb 2015, Mar 2014).

The trends in the NPAC cell network since the 19th century have really hurt the West in the cold department relative to the East, it seems.

It might be possible, but it would take a powerful heatwave. Parts of Louisiana and Texas not far from the coast have hit 110 with high humidities.


Hmm..when and where exactly were those temperatures recorded? Sounds dubious if it’s near the coast.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#10
Eujunga

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:21 PM

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What's the official record for California these days now that the 1917 Death Valley reading of 134º is no longer considered valid?  The way the climate has trended of late, I wouldn't be surprised at a new state record at some point.  Death Valley averaged over 120º this July. 

 

Looking at the monthly average high temperature records, it's interesting to note that of the seven times Death Valley has recorded a average maximum of over 120º in July, six have occurred since 1996.  The lone exception?  1917, which is regarded as suspect.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

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#11
Scott

Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:48 PM

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Hmm..when and where exactly were those temperatures recorded? Sounds dubious if it’s near the coast. 

 

 

September 2000; Corpus Christi to Louisiana. 

 

Attached File  heat.jpg   390.52KB   0 downloads

 

Houston Airport is about 30 miles from the coast and hit 109 on 9/5/2000, but several areas slightly inland were in the 110-113 range, including the suburbs of the Greater Houston Area.   

 

Corpus Christi is right on the coast and hit 109.  Several stations not far inland were 110 or higher. 

 

Almost all of the stations operating in that region recorded their all time record highs then.

 

That region is usually humid as well.  

 

According to Wikipedia, 140 people died during the heatwave:

 

https://en.wikipedia...tates_heat_wave


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At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21<

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   6.45 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches


#12
Scott

Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:01 PM

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What's the official record for California these days now that the 1917 Death Valley reading of 134º is no longer considered valid? 

 

 

129 on the following dates:

 

7/18/1960

7/18/1998

7/20/2005

7/7/2007

7/1/2013

 

A ranger recorded a 131 at Badwater during the 6/1994 heatwave.  It is probably accurate though not official since it wasn't a weather station.

 

Furnace Creek Visitor Center hit 131 last year, but I don't know if it was ever accepted as official.


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At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21<

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   6.45 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches


#13
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:37 PM

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September 2000; Corpus Christi to Louisiana.

heat.jpg

Houston Airport is about 30 miles from the coast and hit 109 on 9/5/2000, but several areas slightly inland were in the 110-113 range, including the suburbs of the Greater Houston Area.

Corpus Christi is right on the coast and hit 109. Several stations not far inland were 110 or higher.

Almost all of the stations operating in that region recorded their all time record highs then.

That region is extremely humid as well.

According to Wikipedia, 140 people died during the heatwave:

https://en.wikipedia...tates_heat_wave


What were the PWAT/theta-e values over the area? The amount of energy required to generate 110*F+ ambient temperatures with dewpoints well into the 70s under the Gulf moisture pump would be simply outrageous.

If it was as humid as is climatologically typical, it would translate to almost 140*F in a drier adiabatic profile like that of Phoenix, AZ, if not higher.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#14
wx_statman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:50 PM

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What were the PWAT/theta-e values over the area? The amount of energy required to generate 110*F+ ambient temperatures with dewpoints well into the 70s under the Gulf moisture pump would be simply outrageous.

If it was as humid as is climatologically typical, it would translate to almost 140*F in a drier adiabatic profile like that of Phoenix, AZ, if not higher.

 

This was a drought situation. I'm sure dry air was advecting from the desert region to the west, and the lower-than-normal soil moisture and ET profile along the coast wasn't doing much to moisten up the lower levels. Add strong sensible heating under a fat ridge = record heat. Otherwise, like you're saying, 110 degree readings in that region wouldn't happen. 


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#15
Scott

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:39 PM

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What were the PWAT/theta-e values over the area? The amount of energy required to generate 110*F+ ambient temperatures with dewpoints well into the 70s under the Gulf moisture pump would be simply outrageous.

If it was as humid as is climatologically typical, it would translate to almost 140*F in a drier adiabatic profile like that of Phoenix, AZ, if not higher. 

 

Looking through the records, some of the heat indexes approached 120 in some areas, but didn't approach 140.  Dew points on those days ranged from 65-75 or lower. 

Houston is typically one of the most humid cities in the US, but it was drier than normal during this time period.   After looking through the records, the humidities, dew points, and heat indexes were lower than I thought they would be.

 

Still, it was a very impressive heat wave. 


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21<

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   6.45 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches


#16
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:06 PM

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This was a drought situation. I'm sure dry air was advecting from the desert region to the west, and the lower-than-normal soil moisture and ET profile along the coast wasn't doing much to moisten up the lower levels. Add strong sensible heating under a fat ridge = record heat. Otherwise, like you're saying, 110 degree readings in that region wouldn't happen.


Ah, I wasn’t aware of the drought. It makes much more sense to me now. Less work going to evaporation. So dews/PWATs were probably lower.

We don’t get extreme droughts here (save the 1930s) so there really isn’t any opportunity to test 110+ nowadays. Plenty of record high minimums, though.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#17
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:11 PM

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Looking through the records, some of the heat indexes approached 120 in some areas, but didn't approach 140. Dew points on those days ranged from 65-75 or lower.

Houston is typically one of the most humid cities in the US, but it was drier than normal during this time period. After looking through the records, the humidities, dew points, and heat indexes were lower than I thought they would be.

Still, it was a very impressive heat wave.


Thanks for the info.

And sorry, I was talking about the ambient temperatures should moisture be extracted (the lack of moisture in the desert Southwest, for example, is the reason for the hot summer temperatures there).

A warm, humid airmass in the SE US holds just as much potential heat as a hot, dry airmass in the desert Southwest. The only difference is that more of said heat is in latent form.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#18
OKwx2k4

Posted 11 August 2018 - 06:08 AM

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I think there's still a shot for some cold records to fall in the interior US in the next decade or so.

#19
erik1974

Posted 11 August 2018 - 11:51 AM

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I think there's still a shot for some cold records to fall in the interior US in the next decade or so.

        I do think it is possible for Texas to beat its -23 readings from 1933 and 1899.  The TX/OK panhandle is good area for a record-shattering coldwave to hit since its all-time lows are relatively mild...


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#20
erik1974

Posted 11 August 2018 - 11:56 AM

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       I don't think that the readings of -40 in KS/MO as well as the -29 in AR on 2/13/1905 have the slightest chance of being beaten though despite the -31 reading in OK at Nowata on 2/10/2011.



#21
erik1974

Posted 11 August 2018 - 12:14 PM

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        I was also thinking of New York 108 reading at Troy on 7/22/1926.  There is also a 108 reading at Mineola on 7/6/2010.  I am not sure if the latter is legit or not...  Even the 108 at Troy in 1926 seems a little suspect...  



#22
erik1974

Posted 11 August 2018 - 12:20 PM

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Now that there is a thread of which temperature extremes that likely won't be broken again, what would you say the state (or maybe others) temperatures are that likely will get broken?  Some records are such anomalies, but some are likely to be broken.

 

As far as heat records go, I think the state record for Utah (117 on 7/5/1985 at St George) will likely be broken sometime in the near future (within the next decade or two).  Several places right near the border have had temperatures hotter than that and the record isn't that far out of the ordinary.  

 

I consider the Utah record the most likely high temperature to be broken in the near future.  

 

106 in Connecticut on 7/15/1995 is another one that I could see getting broken sometime in the near future. 

 

As far as cities go, I believe the 107 in Salt Lake City and the 106 in Grand Junction (Colorado) are likely to be broken sometime in the near future.  

 

I can't think of many State cold records that are likely to be broken anytime soon, but time will tell

     Conn. has good potential to be broken in the future.  Mass. has reached 107 on 8/4/1975 at New Bedford and Chester(bit overexposed though).  It has also reached 106 in NH and another 106 in MA(7/4/1911).  A very good chance Connecticut has...



#23
erik1974

Posted 11 August 2018 - 12:23 PM

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     Conn. has good potential to be broken in the future.  Mass. has reached 107 on 8/4/1975 at New Bedford and Chester(bit overexposed though).  It has also reached 106 in NH and another 106 in MA(7/4/1911).  A very good chance Connecticut has...

 

       I dont think that the 107 at Chester on 8/4/1975 is legit, among many other of its monthly high temp extremes.  July 1982 was not a record setting July yet it says Chester reached 106 on that month.  Highly questionable imo.



#24
Black Hole

Posted 12 August 2018 - 03:55 PM

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Another really interesting thread!

Living in SLC myself, I agree with the opening statement that the 107F record here is likely to fall at some point. We have had several heatwaves the last few years that might have done it if they occurred at the right time. I don't foresee smashing it, but a 108-109F seems possible.  


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#25
Black Hole

Posted 12 August 2018 - 03:57 PM

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Last year in PDX the record might have been broken if not for excessive smoke. The whole west being covered with smoke has probably prevented some record highs. That may be a bigger factor in the future with ever larger fires.  


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F