Geos Posted March 5, 2016 Report Share Posted March 5, 2016 Looks like there is the threat for severe storms in the Plains early week as moisture starts to get tapped into from the Gulf. Further NE two or three system will impact the Midwest and Great Lakes with heavy rain. Total moisture from the 0z GFS. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadobrah89 Posted March 5, 2016 Report Share Posted March 5, 2016 Do Forbes still has tor con at 4 for Kansas and Oklahoma and we're still 2 days out. I think if there are areas of clearing storms could be worst. Wouldn't be surprised to see tor con a 5 by tomorrow or monday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 Storms for NE too? Can see the 4km NAM picking up on convection in the southern Plains. Decent dewpoints for early in the season. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1457269157716 I don't really know why they think there could be severe weather for the middle of nebraska, There's no precip predicted there for then next week or so. It's starting to get mighty dry around here (Omaha area), and there's not much relief in sight for the near future. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_240_precip_ptot.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadobrah89 Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 I dont understand why they're saying the tornado probabilities are low when there is going to be super cells with 45-50 knots of shear. Is there something going on that I'm missing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 I dont understand why they're saying the tornado probabilities are low when there is going to be super cells with 45-50 knots of shear. Is there something going on that I'm missing?Because shear isn't the only thing that tornadoes need?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadobrah89 Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 Because shear isn't the only thing that tornadoes need??I'd still think it should be a low-medium threat giving the dew points in the low 60s, decent shear and isolated super cells in the afternoon. Not saying there is a great chance for tornados but I think it's going to be more favorable than they think. I can see this system over performing based on the nws forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 I'd still think it should be a low-medium threat giving the dew points in the low 60s, decent shear and isolated super cells in the afternoon. Not saying there is a great chance for tornados but I think it's going to be more favorable than they think. I can see this system over performing based on the nws forecastThe low level shear is garbage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 One thing that is coming is heavy rain. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadobrah89 Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 The low level shear is garbage.It looks like 40-50 knots in Oklahoma. I always thought that was plenty to get some tornados Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 We're doing fine for moisture. There's so much moisture in the ground we have an above normal risk of flooding this spring. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif?1457269157716 I don't really know why they think there could be severe weather for the middle of nebraska, There's no precip predicted there for then next week or so. It's starting to get mighty dry around here (Omaha area), and there's not much relief in sight for the near future. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_240_precip_ptot.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 The shear may be fine but from what I've read is there's issues with clouds and a cap early and the best forcing doesn't come until overnight so the storms will be elevated at that time anyway. I've also heard storms that do form up here in Nebraska will form behind the front which again means elevated crap. It looks like 40-50 knots in Oklahoma. I always thought that was plenty to get some tornados Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 It looks like 40-50 knots in Oklahoma. I always thought that was plenty to get some tornados That's not low-level shear... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadobrah89 Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 That's not low-level shear...How much lower level shear do we have then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 7, 2016 Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 Look at the hodographs. There's enough low level shear for tornadoes if a few other things were there. There's 20-25 knots of 0-1 km shear. That's pretty good. Normally 15-20 is enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 GFS 12zGoing to be a muddy week. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 18z NAM has some shear at 700mb Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 Nasty. 30s and heavy rain for Thursday night-Friday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2016 Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 GEOS riding the americans? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 GEOS riding the americans? Still 2" here on the EURO, heavier east. Regardless if the low passes SE, it will be cool/cold. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2016 Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 Still 2" here on the EURO, heavier east. Regardless if the low passes SE, it will be cool/cold.Unless you are.further west as there is no cold air connection. Last year I had a negative 13 reading on yesterdays date. Torch away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 Unless you are.further west as there is no cold air connection. Last year I had a negative 13 reading on yesterdays date. Torch away With the wind off the lake it doesn't matter what the temp is in Michigan or aloft. lol After 0z Thursday the EURO keeps it under 50° until the following Monday. 0z GFS has the 3" corridor nearby still. The heavy rain will help flush out my pond. Looking forward to the rain. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 8, 2016 Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 Wagons south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 That was the 12z, but now this is the 0z, which came back north. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 8, 2016 Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 wagons south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 8, 2016 Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 Is that a GEOS hole??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016030818/namconus_apcpn_ncus_14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted March 8, 2016 Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 We're doing fine for moisture. There's so much moisture in the ground we have an above normal risk of flooding this spring. I take it you don't make it out of the city much. It's dry as a bone out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 9, 2016 Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 I guess your house has missed all the rain and moisture the rest of eastern Nebraska has received and this map must be wrong then. Again people freak out when there isn't 50" of snow every winter or when it doesn't rain or snow for a couple of weeks at a time. The sun's out for like 8 hours a day and the sun angle is so low, moisture doesn't really go anywhere. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/mapsanddata/maparchive.aspx I take it you don't make it out of the city much. It's dry as a bone out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 Is that a GEOS hole??? It's trolling me. Not the first time the NAM has done that. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 GFS really drying out as well too. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 9, 2016 Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 GFS really drying out as well too. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016030900/gfs_apcpn_ncus_11.pngThe season that the ability of GEOS to create QPF out of nothing started to dwindle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 9, 2016 Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 How much rain you get geos? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2016 How much rain you get geos? 0.20"Taking the thread off of pin. Nobody is this forum is really getting affected by the heavy rain. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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