Sciascia Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 No way, I just went out side and measured 12" in the same spot that has sun from the morning till 3pm. Lost 2" or so today.Guy claims ORD had 14" at 12z & now has 9" at 0z. Not saying he's necessarily right, but he's usually able to find ORD stats. So I'm not gonna discount him immediately. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Hmmm. HRW-NMM 850 MB temps at HR 45 (21z THU) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045&image=data%2Fhrw-nmm%2F00%2Fhrw-nmm_eus_045_850_temp_ht.gif&model=hrw-nmm-eus&area=eus¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140219+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Just to compare that model to the GFS. GFS has the 850 0 line from LSE to N of GB. That model has the 850 line at MKE at the same time period. Pretty drastic differences for a storm 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Snow is not a realistic possibility here. But what is a realistic possibility is a dry-ish slot. That would be able to save us from disastrous flooding. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 0z UKMET: 983 MB over DBQ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 0z UKMET: 983 MB over DBQ lolI don't want that. That's dry slot me likely and keep all my moisture limited. If it's gonna do that, I want it further NW so I could see some convection or something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 So recap of the models at HR 48 NAM: 985.8 MB near WalworthGFS: 984 MB near the DellsRGEM: 987 MB E of MKEGGEM: 989 MB near WalworthUKMET: 983 MB near DBQHRW-NMM: 986 MB near Pontiac ILHRW-ARW: 990 MB near Rockford IL or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Met on American: Most of the 8-14" of snow that fell from DC to the NYC metro last Weds night through Thursday night was intense WAA driven snows Weds night into Thurs AM. Combo of wet bulbing initially and dynamic cooling kept the column supportive of mostly snow until the warmer air finally overcame. The 00z sounding last Thursday evening at OKX on central LI registered 7c at 850 mb. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM is legit with this wet bulbing/dynamic cooling set-up. GFS will not do as well picking up on this but its last 2 runs were hinting at it over northern IL and southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 GB VFR VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLYEXCEPTION MAY BE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WEST/NORTHWESTWINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT THEAREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRALWISCONSIN... 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES JUSTNORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. FOR THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THELAKE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW...THEN BECOME MIXED WITHOR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TORAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTIONS...ITWILL BE MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TOTHE LAKE...BUT CONVECTION COULD CHANGE IT OVER TO HEAVY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 0z ECMWF HR 48: 987 over Sheboygan, WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 0z ECMWF HR 48: 987 over Sheboygan, WI That positioning makes me think this run will show a big flood maker over here. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 00z Euro...not showing the heavy rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 00z Euro...not showing the heavy rainsIf I have to have rain, I'd happily take that. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 All rain I am assuming for S and E/C WI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 1/2 inch here in February with frost depth over 60" would be a heavy rain Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 6z NAM is even colder than 0z NAM. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 6z NAM is even colder than 0z NAM. Interesting... Yeah and furthur SE. Takes SLP just east of Chicago southern tip of LM as it looks in instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 989 over E S. LM. Farther SE and gives S. WI warning type snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Good hit for DBQ-Madison and up to Green Bay. Heck not to far from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yeah and furthur SE. Takes SLP just east of Chicago southern tip of LM as it looks in instantweathermaps. Yup. .8-1 + QPF across most of MKE CWA that's frozen. Should be an interesting forecast discussion. All the hi-res model showed a farther SE track too. Usually they are the farthest NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 So we got GFS/UKMET with sub 980 over or N. of DBQ and we have RGEM/HRW NNM/NAM all taking it to Milwaukee/Chicago area with the ECMWF in-between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 SREF Plumes increased a bit from its last run. 6+ members showing 6+ here compared to 21z which had 1. Mean is up to 3.8 from 2.6 in its earlier run. Shows 1.1 in MKE for Mean with 2 members showing 7+. 21z had 0 members showing more than 4 inches. DBQ: 21z: Mean: 1.94 Highest: 4.84 Lowest: 0.01 03z: Mean: 3.86 Highest: 9.83 (7 showing 6+) Lowest: 0.23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Could be a last minute southeast adjustment. Still time to go back the other way. Seasonal trends would favor the se guidance but this is a different type of storm than we have seen this season as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Could be a last minute southeast adjustment. Still time to go back the other way. Seasonal trends would favor the se guidance but this is a different type of storm than we have seen this season as well. GB AFD mentioned the other day how models have a tough time with phasing systems. Could be seeing that come into play. Not sure which one to lean towards right now. NAM has been very good overall the last few months and it has a better time with handling dynamic cooling compared to lower resolution models. But it still is the NAM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 SREF Plumes increased a bit from its last run. 6+ members showing 6+ here compared to 21z which had 1. Mean is up to 3.8 from 2.6 in its earlier run. Shows 1.1 in MKE for Mean with 2 members showing 7+. 21z had 0 members showing more than 4 inches. DBQ: 21z: Mean: 1.94 Highest: 4.84 Lowest: 0.01 03z: Mean: 3.86 Highest: 9.83 (7 showing 6+) Lowest: 0.23 East Dubzz and Debuque gonna be happy to hear that. Another adjustment and Chicago-MKE might be in game but not holding my breath here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 WPC giving Chicago a 70-80% chance of receiving >.10 FZR http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=48&ptype=icez This should be interesting.. Snow with areas of blowing snow before midnight, then snow likely with areas of blowing snow after midnight. Low around 18. Windy, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 20 to 30 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Rgem looks warmer then the nam through 36 at least . Hopefully the 12z runs start to dial in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Rgem looks warmer then the nam through 36 at least . Hopefully the 12z runs start to dial in yup, it's stronger/nw it looks like. Amazing the model differences within 36 hours of the event. We aren't talking minor differences either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Rgem is a bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 LOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL321 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014ILZ010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-191730-/O.NEW.KLOT.FA.A.0001.140220T0900Z-140220T1800Z//00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER321 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014 /421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014/...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAYMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDINGTHE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN ILLINOIS...COOK...DE KALB...DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...KENDALL...LA SALLE...LEE...LIVINGSTON AND WILL. IN INDIANA...BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND PORTER.* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.* THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW...FROZEN GROUND AND RAINFALL OFA HALF INCH TO LOCALLY AN INCH AND A HALF LATE TONIGHT INTOTHURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING.* HIGH STANDING WATER AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGEAND FLOOD PRONE LOW LYING AREAS. SIGNIFICANT RISES AND LOCALIZEDFLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON AREA STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 GFS is similar to the 00z run. MKE going with WAA until 12 PM Thursday for FZR/SN and a WSW for Green Lake/Dells area for 2-4 inches of snow + 50 mph winds IT CAN/T BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH HOW COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLYDANGEROUS THIS STORM IS. WE WILL BE SITTING VERY CLOSE TOTEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS THAT DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND THEFINAL TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. A SLIGHT DEVIATIONWILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SOME AREAS. IF IT GOES FARTHEREAST...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY BE THE TARGET FOR THE HIGHERSNOW AMOUNTS AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST AND IT/S AWARMER SCENARIO. PLEASE REMAIN ALERT FOR LATER UPDATES TO THEFORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 La crosse throws up blizzard warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Wow does the gFS bomb out northern wisconsin going to have some crazy snow depths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 This is a quick mover so I am not expecting flooding to be too severe but with such snow depth it is def a concern considering i had people stranded in streets the last 2 floods last spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 nam is weird. i dont buy it. im in a blizzard warning.....5-9" with 50mph wind gusts potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Interesting run from the NAM. If other models had started to do that, I would have gotten a little excited. But it's the only model that is really even close at all to putting me in the good zone, so just throw that run out, NAM must be on some crack or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 DSM northward looking sweet. Calling for 5-9 inches or more. La Cross calling for 8-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 I have a feeling some of those amounts are going to bust. Not many models support that much snow to begin with until you get into furthermore north Minnesota or Wisconsin, and ratios will probably be crap with low temps and high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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