The Tim and Phil thread

[Phil]

Of course... on regional level. Never argued that.

 

My forecast was for the Seattle area based on local history.

 

Coldest period of the month was July 1-10... above normal for the period since. So I was right as well. And I only really care about Seattle.

 

So you were right and I was right.

Fair enough. I don't forecast for individual cities.

[Jesse]

Phil was right on a regional/upper air level. Big picture. Tim was right for the "One degree/step closer to perfection" Puget Sound area including but not limited to all of its third runways. Nice picture.

[Guest Winterdog]

I think this belongs in the Phil/Tim thread of monotony.

[Phil]

Phil was right on a regional/upper air level. Big picture. Tim was right for the "One degree/step closer to perfection" Puget Sound area including but not limited to all of its third runways. Nice picture.

Yeah I'd like to drop this for good. Really getting old now.

[Deweydog]

Phil was right on a regional/upper air level. Big picture. Tim was right for the "One degree/step closer to perfection" Puget Sound area including but not limited to all of its third runways. Nice picture.

Not a fair assessment. Phil has done an excellent job with the big picture but Tim has done about equally excellent on the small scale. Both are relevant, both are important.

 

Sad thing is they've made themselves look like idiots trying to assert their relevance dominance.

[TT-SEA]

Fair enough. I don't forecast for individual cities.

 

 

Fair enough.

 

Regional is very valuable.

[Jesse]

Not a fair assessment. Phil has done an excellent job with the big picture but Tim has done about equally excellent on the small scale. Both are relevant, both are important.

 

Sad thing is they've made themselves look like idiots trying to assert their relevance dominance.

Basically what I said, but with more use of the word "excellent".

 

Tim has done very well for the east Puget sound region specifically. Down here, east of the cascades, etc it has been a different story. But now he claims not to care about those areas at all anyway, when a few months ago he was pretty quick to butt heads with Phil about negative summertime anoms rearing their ugly heads anywhere in the PNW.

[Deweydog]

Basically what I said, but with more use of the word "excellent".

 

Tim has done very well for the east Puget sound region specifically. Down here, east of the cascades, etc it has been a different story. But now he claims not to care about those areas at all anyway, when a few months ago he was pretty quick to butt heads with Phil about negative summertime anoms rearing their ugly heads anywhere in the PNW.

Tim blew it when it came to the big picture probably due to anxiety, but Phil lacks the intimate knowledge of the fact westside summers are a fickle lil' beast, despite 850mb broadbrushed anomaly maps.

[Jesse]

Tim blew it when it came to the big picture probably due to anxiety, but Phil lacks the intimate knowledge of the fact westside summers are a fickle lil' beast, despite 850mb broadbrushed anomaly maps.

Well said.

 

Marine influence bows to no 850s!

[TT-SEA]

Tim blew it when it came to the big picture probably due to anxiety, but Phil lacks the intimate knowledge of the fact westside summers are a fickle lil' beast, despite 850mb broadbrushed anomaly maps.

 

 

I really thought persistence was going to win out through at least the middle of the summer.   Regime change came faster than anyone thought back in April.  

 

Probably sets us up for a nice second half of summer and early fall.

[Phil]

I really thought persistence was going to win out through at least the middle of the summer. Regime change came faster than anyone thought back in April.

 

Probably sets us up for a nice second half of summer and early fall.

Well, systematically, the transition away from Pacific/Western Hemispheric m forcing isn't finished. So, I'd definitely lean towards a troughy, cooler than average August/September aggregate over the region as a whole, microclimates and UHI hotspots aside.

[Phil]

Just finished installing a brand new AC unit & dehumidifier.

 

Won't be as much of an "angry person" now, despite another day in the upper 90s w/ heat indices in the mid 100s. Looks like it was lightning related, as both of the units blew up simultaneously w/ electrical/feeder lines all fried.

[Phil]

Latest update... the Nina is looking less impressive lately. Or at least its not really progressing. I know the response will be that a quick turnaround is coming soon but we have been hearing that for several weeks.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif

 

 

Compare to July of 1988...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/July.88.anomaly.gif

You're making zero sense as usual.

 

We're ahead of 1983, 1995, 2005, and 2007, as far as thermocline development & AAM/forcing are concerned.

 

The 1988 event was by far the strongest on record for July, it's not even close. Why even bring that event up? I can't tell if you're serious or trolling.

[TT-SEA]

You're making zero sense as usual.

 

We're ahead of 1983, 1995, 2005, and 2007, as far as thermocline development & AAM/forcing are concerned.

 

The 1988 event was by far the strongest on record for July, it's not even close. Why even bring that event up? I can't tell if you're serious or trolling.

 

 

Zero sense as usual??   Come on Phil.      What a bunch of crap.    

 

Why bring up 1988?   Because we have been talking about it since about March.    Like this is the first time that I mentioned 1988?    

 

And the Nina has progressed very little if at all during July.       

 

The end of June...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.30.2016.gif

 

Now...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif

 

 

Not much progress.   Makes perfect sense to mention it.    

[Phil]

Zero sense as usual?? Come on Phil. What a bunch of crap.

 

Why bring up 1988? Because we have been talking about it since about March. Like this is the first time that I mentioned 1988?

 

And the Nina has progressed very little if at all during July.

 

The end of June...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.30.2016.gif

 

Now...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif

 

 

Not much progress. Makes perfect sense to mention it.

You're only one hugging 1988 here. Your snapshots are intentionally selective.

 

Note the underlying trend:

 

 

Zero ENSO updates from you when it's cooling, but literally every f**king warm blip you're there trumpeting it. You think ENSO is just going to magically flip in one month and stay there? It's s prolonged process, dude.

[TT-SEA]

You're only one hugging 1988 here. Your snapshots are intentionally selective.

Note the underlying trend:

image.pngimage.png

Zero ENSO updates from you when it's cooling, but literally every f**king warm blip you're there trumpeting it. You think ENSO is just going to magically flip in one month and stay there? It's s prolonged process, dude.

All you ever post is about how cold it's going to be here. Despite being a solidly above normal summer in progress in our area.

 

It is warm sometimes... you said I post about that so you don't have to and likewise on the ENSO situation.

 

Based on some of your posts you would think we would have a record breaking Nina in place by now!

[TT-SEA]

Bad post.

Probably. So was his.

 

Have not seen a map from him in months that was not to prove it was or will be cold.

[Phil]

All you ever post is about how cold it's going to be here. Despite being a solidly above normal summer in progress in our area.

 

It is warm sometimes... you said I post about that so you don't have to and likewise on the ENSO situation.

 

Based on some of your posts you would think we would have a record breaking Nina in place by now!

It's been cooler than average over the majority of your region, for the majority of the time, for the majority of the summer.

 

So, I'm right.

[Phil]

Based on some of your posts you would think we would have a record breaking Nina in place by now!

Then you're not reading my posts carefully. I've been predicting a monthly ONI bottom-out of -1.1 to -1.3C since March/April.

[Phil]

Bad post.

This.

[TT-SEA]

It's been cooler than average over the majority of your region, for the majority of the time, for the majority of the summer.

 

So, I'm right.

 

Not the point goofball.  

 

You are a one note tune with cold lately... out to prove a point.   Don't call me out for being devil's advocate on the other side.   

 

This Nina does not look impressive yet.   Fair post.     You have driven home the point that the entire globe is in the clutches of this Nina and only years like 1988 were similar in flipping the switch so completely so early.   

 

So comparing to 1988 is fair as well... just following along.

 

I have no idea what will happen with ENSO this fall and winter.   Just making observations currently.

[Phil]

Not the point goofball.

 

You are a one note tune with cold lately... out to prove a point. Don't call me out for being devil's advocate on the other side.

 

This Nina does not look impressive yet. Fair post. You have driven home the point that the entire globe is in the clutches of this Nina and only years like 1988 were similar in flipping the switch so completely so early.

I never said the Niña "looked impressive". Not once. More strawman crap, as usual. You're also paranoid regarding my motives. I'm not trying to spite you or "make a point".

 

The global circulations are very much in La Niña mode, however. Yes, La Niña (forcing) has the NPAC in a collar and leash, and this is easily demonstrable.

 

So comparing to 1988 is fair as well... just following along.

So in other words, you're manufacturing the idea that I have ulterior motives just so you can troll the board with an excuse?

 

Got it.

[Phil]

Monday and Tuesday look cooler than normal and wet.

 

The rest of week is definitely normal or above normal for us here on the models at this time. The pattern later next week is not likely to be an over-performing cool pattern.

Let's look at d5 to d10 on the 12z EPS. Again, you're making s**t up.

 

[TT-SEA]

Then you're not reading my posts carefully. I've been predicting a monthly ONI bottom-out of -1.1 to -1.3C since March/April.

 

Yes... you have said that numerous times.   

 

I don't understand the mechanics and just go with the flow on ENSO.   Maybe you were just surprised to a transition to Nina at all.... but the excitement level in the posts has made it seem like this transition was just crazy.     Probably just that you are excited in general.   I misread it.

[TT-SEA]

Let's look at d5 to d10 on the 12z EPS. Again, you're making s**t up.

 

image.png

 

Wait... you are telling me again that I am making stuff when forecasting for the area that Jim and I live?   

 

Do you not understand yet?    Its both.    Cool regionally and probably warmer than normal here again.   All signs point that way now and I think I know how to forecast weather for King County pretty well.    I am doing just fine so far.

 

It was a comment to Jim... who lives between me and SEA.    

[Phil]

Yes... you have said that numerous times.

 

I don't understand the mechanics and just go with the flow on ENSO. Maybe you were just surprised to a transition to Nina at all.... but the excitement level in the posts has made it seem like this transition was just crazy. Probably just that you are excited in general. I misread it.

You're seeing things that aren't there, dude.

 

I'm not "excited" about La Niña.

[Phil]

Wait... you are telling me again that I am making stuff when forecasting for the area that Jim and I live?   

 

Do you not understand yet?    Its both.    Cool regionally and probably warmer than normal here again.   All signs point that way now and I think I know how to forecast weather for King County pretty well.    I am doing just fine so far.

 

It was a comment to Jim... who lives between me and SEA.    

So SEA will run warmer than model guidance just because you want it to?

 

Whatever. I'm out for now.

[TT-SEA]

So SEA will run warmer than model guidance just because you want it to?

 

Whatever. I'm out for now.

 

No... not because I want it but rather because it will .   And I would think at this point you would just stop telling me I am wrong about the Seattle area.  <_>

 

I can usually tell patterns that are favorable for the Seattle area to be cold and/or wet.   Monday into Tuesday is such a pattern.

 

The rest of the week is not.   You have been doing this for weeks and every time I have had a better handle on the Seattle area.   Might not be that important in the big picture... but it is important to some of us.

[TT-SEA]

00z GFS certainly starts August off on a cooler-than-average note. Also cooler than average on 7/30 & 7/31.

 

Looks like tomorrow is the last well above average day over the majority of the region.

 

Well above average?   Thanks for the bold call.  

 

Lots of 850mb temps of 14-15C here on the 00Z GFS after the system on Monday night and Tuesday.   Normal is 13C at this time of year in Seattle.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/850_temp_ht/gfs_namer_168_850_temp_ht.gif

 

I expect it will be frigidly running +2 to +3 in Seattle area by the middle and end of next week.     Brrrrrrr.    Upper 70s to near 80.   

[TT-SEA]

Great point Brennan.    

 

Arctic outbreak east of the mountains but a little above normal in Seattle in the winter.... I am sure that we would all be discussing how a regional viewpoint is VERY important.    

 

Anyways.... SEA is now at +1.0 for the month.      

 

6 out of the last 9 days have been in the 80s.  We started the month with some days in the 60s.   

 

Chilly start... average middle... warm end.   No other way to decribe it,  

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

[Phil]

You busted on timing too. Both July 10-20 & July 15-25 windows were troughier/cooler than the July 1-10 window overall.

 

I win.

 

7/1-7/10

 

 

7/10-7/20

 

 

7/15-7/25

 

[TT-SEA]

You busted on timing too. Both July 10-20 & July 15-25 windows were troughier/cooler than the July 1-10 window overall.

 

I win.

 

7/1-7/10

 

image.gif

 

7/10-7/20

 

image.gif

 

7/15-7/25

 

image.gif

 

 

Dude.   

 

I forecasted for Seattle.   

 

How many times are we discussing this??    

 

I want you to review this CF6 data for Seattle.    Day by day.   Spend a minute.      Look at the trend over the month.   

 

 

 

This is all I forecasted.   Its exactly what I thought would happen... including timing. 

 

I don't know or care about a much bigger region.   That is your deal.  

 

I probably assumed this trend would be on a larger scale... but really don't care.   What happens here is all that matter to me.  

[Phil]

Why didn't you mention that until two weeks ago, then?

[TT-SEA]

Why didn't you mention that until two weeks ago, then?

 

 

Did not know what I did not know.

 

Local history has been an excellent guide this summer.   Best not to assume local results are on a larger scale.   

 

Its not just SEA either... its been an above normal across a large part of western WA and all of the Puget Sound region.    And the month went from cool, then average, then warm.   All in the right order.

[Phil]

Did not know what I did not know.

 

Local history has been an excellent guide this summer. Best not to assume local results are on a larger scale.

 

Its not just SEA either... its been an above normal across a large part of western WA and all of the Puget Sound region. And the month went from cool, then average, then warm. All in the right order.

Over the region as a whole, it started warm, went cool, got cooler, then warmed up after the 25th, with the most impressive troughing occuring during the middle of the month, late week2 & early week3.

 

If the Puget Sound region differed locally, fine. I was forecasting the pattern, not microclimatic behaviors.

[TT-SEA]

Over the region as a whole, it started warm, went cool, got cooler, then warmed up after the 25th, with the most impressive troughing occuring during the middle of the month, late week2 & early week3.

 

If the Puget Sound region differed locally, fine. I was forecasting the pattern, not microclimatic behaviors.

 

 

Clearly the results were different in the Puget Sound region.   Just go through the CF6 data above.   Pretty straight forward.

 

The month was normal for the 2 days... but the first part of the month was generally cool and damp.   

 

It flipped around 7/10 when the big ULL finally moved through to normal and much more sunny.   

 

And then has been getting warmer since.   

[Phil]

Clearly the results were different in the Puget Sound region. Just go through the CF6 data above. Pretty straight forward.

 

The month was normal for the 2 days... but the first part of the month was generally cool and damp.

 

It flipped around 7/10 when the big ULL finally moved through to normal and much more sunny.

 

And then has been getting warmer since.

Definitely localized though, as PDX/OLM/EUG ran cooler during the middle of the month, warmer during the first week of the month.

 

Plus, tomorrow and Sunday both look to run cooler than average, barring any warm overnight lows tonight.

[Phil]

Also, much like my original forecast, your call for troughing 8/5 to 8/15 looks a bit slow, possibly too conservative as well regarding the troughing next month.

 

We'll also attempt an EPO block, so the nature of the troughing will be different.

[TT-SEA]

Also, much like my original forecast, your call for troughing 8/5 to 8/15 looks a bit slow, possibly too conservative as well regarding the troughing next month.

 

We'll also attempt an EPO block, so the nature of the troughing will be different.

 

 

We will see.  I am thinking the second half of August might be pretty warm again.  

[TT-SEA]

Definitely localized though, as PDX/OLM/EUG ran cooler during the middle of the month, warmer during the first week of the month.

 

Plus, tomorrow and Sunday both look to run cooler than average, barring any warm overnight lows tonight.

 

 

If I was forecasting for Oregon or Idaho then I might have picked that up.   

 

But I don't really care too much what happens there.