The Tim and Phil thread

[Phil]

If I was forecasting for Oregon or Idaho then I might have picked that up.

 

But I don't really care too much what happens there.

OLM is in WA, and they were cooler during wk2/wk3 as well, warmer wk1. As were most stations in WA.

 

Also, OLM will finish the month around average, too, or even slightly below with the next two days averaging -3F to -4F.

[Phil]

We will see. I am thinking the second half of August might be pretty warm again.

It wasn't long ago that you were calling for a warm first half of August. Though you haven't made a firm call either way really, except in the forecast contest where you went cooler than average, ironically.

[Deweydog]

It wasn't long ago that you were calling for a warm first half of August. Though you haven't made a firm call either way really, except in the forecast contest where you went cooler than average, ironically.

 

In all fairness, it wasn't long ago you were calling for a warm first half of August.  

[Phil]

In all fairness, it wasn't long ago you were calling for a warm first half of August.

I already confirmed and elaborated on that, in two separate threads actually. #pointlesstalkingpoints

[Front Ranger]

Also, much like my original forecast, your call for troughing 8/5 to 8/15 looks a bit slow, possibly too conservative as well regarding the troughing next month.

 

We'll also attempt an EPO block, so the nature of the troughing will be different.

He changed that some days ago. Basically saying he was expecting less troughing in August than July.

[TT-SEA]

I have no idea what you're talking about.

 

You repeatedly laughed at me when looking at this week saying the NW flow would bring marine layer and cool temps.  The pattern screams inversion with NW flow right?  

[Phil]

You repeatedly laughed at me when looking at this week saying the NW flow would bring marine layer and cool temps. The pattern screams inversion with NW flow right?

This is a load of crap, much like your summer forecast.

 

I never forecasted anything like that. I might've been describing a model run or two, but never predicted a prolonged pattern inversion under high pressure. Never. Not once.

 

You wonder why I get "angry" at you? This is why. Stop pulling crap like this out of your arse. Just stop. It honestly won't get you anywhere, unless you actually enjoy wasting countless hours arguing on a weather forum.

[Phil]

Here's July 15th to 25th. Go home.

 

[Phil]

Here's the second half of July so far. Troughy overall, with more troughing 7/30 & 7/31.

 

Y'all are hilarious. Your preconceived, unsubstantiated "perception" of the pattern doesn't hold up to the observations/data.

 

[TT-SEA]

If you were paying any attention whatsoever, I forecasted offshore ridging with NW flow aloft for the third week of July, or more specifically, July 15th to July 25th.

 

That is exactly what happened.

Right. It was a knee jerk response from you to try and prove it would be cold somehow. Why Dewey mentioned it.

 

7 out 10 days above 80 in Seattle. It been very warm.

[Phil]

Right. It was a knee jerk response from you to try and prove it would be cold somehow. Why Dewey mentioned it.

7 out 10 days above 80 in Seattle. It been very warm.

Except I never said it would lead to below average temperatures at SEA. Alright? Your reading comprehension can't be this horrid.

 

I literally said nothing about SEA when I made that forecast. Stop this nonsense, Tim. You're at a dead end, it won't get you anywhere.

[TT-SEA]

Except I never said it would lead to below average temperatures at SEA. Okay? There's no way your reading comprehension is this horrid.

I literally said nothing about SEA when I made that forecast.

We were talking about SEA... you were mocking my warm forecast.

 

That what happens when you attack just to attack.

[Phil]

We were talking about SEA... you were mocking my warm forecast.

That what happens when you attack just to attack.

Wrong. You were implying the majority of the region would run warmer than average, using SEA as a gauge. That's why multiple people, including myself, took you to task.

 

I responded stating the majority of the region (including PDX, OLM, EUG) would run cooler than average from 7/15-7/25. I was right, you were either wrong or trolling.

[TT-SEA]

Wrong. You were implying the majority of the region would run warmer than average, using SEA as a gauge. That's why multiple people, including myself, took you to task.

I responded stating the majority of the region (including PDX, OLM, EUG) would run cooler than average from 7/15-7/25. I was right, you were either wrong or trolling.

Never did that. Bad assumption bud.

[Phil]

Never did that. Bad assumption bud.

You were called out by several people, for the exact reason I outlined above. It literally took you multiple pages to concede.

 

Will give you kudos for the attempt, however..

[Phil]

He changed that some days ago. Basically saying he was expecting less troughing in August than July.

Again?

 

Too many "adjustments" for me to keep track of.

[TT-SEA]

You were called out by several people, for the exact reason I outlined above. It literally took you multiple pages to concede.

Will give you kudos for the attempt, however..

Nope. I know because I have only cared what happens locally this month.

 

You are wrong. You attacked just to rile me up after saying it would be warm for us here. It HAS BEEN WARM. Sorry.

 

I don't care about Idaho or Oregon or Montana. You assumed that.

[TT-SEA]

Again?

Too many "adjustments" for me to keep track of.

Ha!

 

Just shut up. I know I have done well for where I am forecasting. Why do you keep attacking?

[Phil]

Nope. I know because I have only cared what happens locally this month.

 

You are wrong. You attacked just to rile me up after saying it would be warm for us here. It HAS BEEN WARM. Sorry.

 

I don't care about Idaho or Oregon or Montana. You assumed that.

I'm talking about OR/WA along/west of the Cascades, which you implied would run warm overall from 7/15 to 7/25. No one said anything about fricking Montana or Idaho. I wasn't the only one calling you out on this.

 

In truth, OLM, PDX, & EUG were all cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25, as were the majority of stations in the aforementioned area along/west of the Cascades. Unless your words (verbatim) calling for warmth everywhere west of the Cascades were "sarcastic" again?

[TT-SEA]

I'm talking about OR/WA along/west of the cascades, which you implied would run warm overall from 7/15 to 7/25. No one said anything about f**king Idaho or f**king Montana. I wasn't the only one calling you out on this.

In truth, OLM, PDX, & EUG were all cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25, as were the majority of stations in the aforementioned area.

You are changing topics. Breathe!

 

Dewey called you out and was exactly correct.

[Phil]

You are changing topics. Breathe!

 

Dewey called you out and was exactly correct.

Don't even try, dude. The hard data is straightforward and supports my conclusion(s).

 

The majority of the region along/west of the Cascades was cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25, contrary to your statements (using SEA as a gauge). So, I was right.

[Phil]

Ha!

 

Just shut up. I know I have done well for where I am forecasting. Why do you keep attacking?

If you'd quit the backhanded jabs (also your outright dragging me into arguments) in the main thread, I'd have no reason to call you out. You're asking for it, dude.

 

Hopefully, once July winds to a close and the Jesse calculates the numbers in the forecast contest, we'll be able to move on from this.

[TT-SEA]

If you'd quit the backhanded jabs (also your outright dragging me into arguments) in the main thread, I'd have no reason to call you out. You're asking for it, dude.

Hopefully, once July winds to a close and the Jesse calculates the numbers in the forecast contest, we'll be able to move on from this.

You did it again today. Dewey is right as well.

[Phil]

You did it again today. Dewey is right as well.

I did what, exactly? You initiated this exchange.

[Deweydog]

I already confirmed and elaborated on that, in two separate threads actually. #pointlesstalkingpoints

Good lord, you guys have thrived on pointless talking points for weeks.

 

See need for separate thread for reference.

[TT-SEA]

I did what, exactly? You initiated this exchange.

Actually Dewey did... he had a good point

[Phil]

Actually Dewey did... he had a good point

I meant the exchange between you and I, silly.

 

As for Dewey's "point", he didn't really have one, as I proved above. My forecast for 7/15 - 7/25 was spot on.

[TT-SEA]

I meant the exchange between you and I, silly.

 

As for Dewey's "point", he didn't really have one, as I proved above. My forecast for 7/15 - 7/25 was spot on.

 

 

Dewey was spot on.  You did not prove anything.   

 

I just agreed with him.   I did not bring it up.

[Phil]

Dewey was spot on. You did not prove anything.

 

I just agreed with him. I did not bring it up.

No, he wasn't. You're just full of it, as usual.

 

He suggested that I'd forecasted a NW flow marine inversion. I clarified that I'd merely forecasted offshore ridging w/ a general onshore flow from 7/15 to 7/25, and that the majority of the westside would average cooler than normal.

 

I was spot on.

[TT-SEA]

No, he wasn't. You're just full of it, as usual.

 

He suggested that I'd forecasted a NW flow marine inversion. I clarified that I'd merely forecasted offshore ridging w/ a general onshore flow from 7/15 to 7/25, and that the majority of the westside would average cooler than normal.

 

I was spot on.

 

 

You were totally wrong.   You were mocking me for my Seattle forecast once again and you were referring to this week.    Dewey knows this as well.   Sorry.

 

And even in the period beginning 7/15... you were totally wrong about the Puget Sound region.    And of course the whole thing came up because I said it looks warmer than normal in the Seattle area and you laughingly mocked me and said NW flow and marine layer will keep it cooler than normal.    

 

 

 

 

We all know you were not referring to east of the mountains either.   They don't have marine layer there.

 

You were trying to get a rise out of me and burned yourself in the process as the map clearly shows with the period beginning 7/15.   

 

Let it go... you keep failing when comes to the only area that I am even forecasting for or care about.   Stick to your regional stuff and I will stick to local.  

[Phil]

As usual, you're struggling to grasp reality. Take a Valium, then try to pay attention.

 

1) Regarding that map. I said 7/15 to 7/25, not 7/15 to 7/28. Simple math, Tim. The westside was demonstrably below average in the 7/15 to 7/25 that timeframe, in both WA/OR. Do you understand this? Or do you need more visual and/or mathematical help?

 

2) I mocked you for using SEA as a gauge for the westside, then directly stating that 7/15 to 7/25 would be warmer than average across a majority of the westside as a result. As Flatiron correctly pointed out (along with several others), SEA is/has been unrepresentative of the aforementioned region, most of which was cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25.

 

Were you able to grasp all that?

[TT-SEA]

As usual, you're struggling to grasp reality. Take a Valium, then try to pay attention.

 

1) Regarding that map. I said 7/15 to 7/25, not 7/14 to 7/27. Simple math, Tim. The westside was demonstrably below average in the 7/15 to 7/25 that timeframe. Understand? Or do you need more visual and/or mathematical help?

 

2) I mocked you for using SEA as a gauge for the westside, then directly stating that 7/15 to 7/25 would be warmer than average across a majority of the westside as a result. As Flatiron correctly pointed out (along with several others), SEA is/has been unrepresentative of the westside, most of which was cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25.

 

 

Typical Phil... when you are wrong just mix everything up and change the topics and mock the other person.  

 

Dewey called you out.   He knows as well.    Why do you fight things that you were clearly wrong about?   You don't see me arguing about the entire PNW region being cool overall.   I don't care.   I only care that its has been a warm month here.   And MUCH warmer in the second half.

 

I had posted maps showing the warm spell for this week early on you said NW flow and mariner layer would keep it cool.    That is what happened.  

 

Its been in the 80s on 7 of the last 10 days here.    And SEA is far from being the warmest station in the region.    SEA is not even a good representative of the warmest areas.   

[Phil]

Intentionally adding 7/26, 7/27, & 7/28 to boost anomalies, eh? Do you honestly think people won't see that?

[Deweydog]

You were totally wrong. You were mocking me for my Seattle forecast once again and you were referring to this week. Dewey knows this as well. Sorry.

 

And even in the period beginning 7/15... you were totally wrong about the Puget Sound region. And of course the whole thing came up because I said it looks warmer than normal in the Seattle area and you laughingly mocked me and said NW flow and marine layer will keep it cooler than normal.

 

 

 

 

We all know you were not referring to east of the mountains either. They don't have marine layer there.

 

You were trying to get a rise out of me and burned yourself in the process as the map clearly shows with the period beginning 7/15.

 

Let it go... you keep failing when comes to the only area that I am even forecasting for or care about. Stick to your regional stuff and I will stick to local.

Why would you use the 15th to 28th? He said the 15th to 25th.

[TT-SEA]

Why would you use the 15th to 28th? He said the 15th to 25th.

 

 

It does not allow me to use 15-25.

 

You get one week, two weeks, or since July 1

[Phil]

Why would you use the 15th to 28th? He said the 15th to 25th.

He literally does this all the time. Usually it's more subtle, like intentionally misquoting me or spinning his own words to wiggle out of a bust.

 

This is why I've been such a "prick" lately. It's a clever strategy because I end up looking like the bad guy when I respond accordingly.

[Phil]

It does not allow me to use 15-25.

 

You get one week, two weeks, or since July 1

Then you shouldn't have posted it, stupid.

[TT-SEA]

SEA was +2.0 from July 15-25.    Definitely a warm period.  

 

Bellingham was +3.0 from July 15-25 so don't blame SEA for not representing the Puget Sound region.  

 

One thing is clear... I have only forecasted for the Seattle area this month.

 

Mockingly telling me my Seattle forecast was bad and it would be cooler than normal due to NW flow and marine layer was wrong.  

 

That and he was actually referring to this week which makes it even more wrong.    I was making the argument that a really warm spell was coming.   He did not like that idea and shot me down with marine layer BS.   Dewey called him out then and again now.  

[Phil]

Yeah, and OLM, PDX, and EUG were cooler than average. As were 850mb temperatures across the entirety of the entire region, in the aforementioned 7/15 to 7/25 period.

 

This is as straightforward as it gets. I said "the majority of the westside". I never said anything about the Puget Sound area, or other specific areas.

[TT-SEA]

How can this argument still be going on?????

 

I ONLY FORECASTED FOR THE SEATTLE AREA THIS MONTH.  I ONLY USED LOCAL HISTORY AS MY GUIDE.   

 

THE NUMBERS ARE OFFICIALLY RECORDED IN THE BOOKS.   

 

USE THEM TO JUDGE MY FORECAST.