The Tim and Phil thread

[Phil]

:lol: :lol:

 

Late August will be troughy. Middle is up for grabs.

Probably makes sense... first part troughy, middle warm, troughy end.

 

If August does end up cooler than normal then I expect a warm September. Just a feeling based on local history.

[Phil]

I learned you call most everything troughing and its still nice.

 

And don't really care.

 

August is looking nice as well now.

 

No point to this discussion as usual.

I don't care how "nice" you think a month is. I look at quantitative, numerically verifiable data, from all relevant standpoints.

 

I don't live in a world where cherry picking and hyperbole is necessary to sustain a personal opinion on the nature of reality.

[TT-SEA]

:lol: :lol:

 

 

 

Entertaining yourself? Maybe I will make you spend hours pulling up quotes from different times just to keep you busy.

 

 

You are always wrong... give me 50 posts to try and prove otherwise.

 

Deadline is 5 pm EDT.

 

Enjoy your day.

 

Oh and August looks nicer than you led me to believe at one point in time.

[TT-SEA]

I don't care how "nice" you think a month is. I look at quantitative, numerically verifiable data, from all relevant standpoints.

 

I don't live in a world where cherry picking and hyperbole is necessary to sustain a personal opinion on the nature of reality.

Exactly... and I am reporting my feelings based on my definitions. Already been over this. Don't care.

[Phil]

Entertaining yourself? Maybe I will make you spend hours pulling up quotes from different times just to keep you busy.

 

You are always wrong... give me 50 posts to try and prove otherwise.

 

Deadline is 5 pm EDT.

 

Enjoy your day.

 

Oh and August looks nicer than you led me to believe at one point in time.

I didn't say anything about how "nice" August would be, so any derivations and/or interpretations you made in that regard are of your own doing, and have no relevance to me whatsoever.

 

I don't forecast within context of a Tim "niceness index". I'm a scientist, not a gypsy. Understand?

[TT-SEA]

I didn't say anything about how "nice" August would be, so any derivations and/or interpretations you made in that regard are of your own doing, and have no relevance to me whatsoever.

 

I don't forecast within context of a Tim "niceness index". I'm a scientist, not a gypsy. Understand?

Yep... stop trying.

[Phil]

Yep... stop trying.

#irony

[TT-SEA]

#irony

You just flipped out today. And you know what... my comment still stands. August looking better than I was thinking based on your earlier comments.

 

Oh wells.

[TT-SEA]

Sorry, but you've been severely obnoxious and obtuse recently, even by your standards, and this is coming from someone who has observed you for years. Just the way it goes sometimes.

 

Phil brought that on with the July crap. I never had a read on August and never pushed anything. Going with the flow this month.

[Phil]

Phil brought that on with the July crap. I never had a read on August and never pushed anything. Going with the flow this month.

Stop dragging me back into this s**t. You started it with a laughably transparent, backhanded troll attempt at me.

 

Normally I'd ignore it but you've been a relentless pain in my butt all summer and I'm low on patience.

[TT-SEA]

Stop dragging me back into this s**t. You started it with a laughably transparent, backhanded troll attempt at me.

Normally I'd ignore it but you've been a relentless pain in my butt all summer and I'm low on patience.

You did it today. You could not handle one simple opinion. You have been doing this all summer when we clearly were talking about different things.

[TT-SEA]

In defense of Phil... He predicted we would see a major anomalous GOA ridge this summer and we most certainly have. The anomaly has been impressive in it's intensity and duration. Good call.

 

 

Nobody has ever challenged that fact.   And it was not challenged today.   He just freaked out again with a simple comment about August looking nicer than I thought based on his posts back in July.    So simple.  

[Jesse]

You did it today. You could not handle one simple opinion. You have been doing this all summer when we clearly were talking about different things.

 

No, you just changed what you were talking about when it started becoming clear you were wrong about the overall summer pattern. :) :) :) :)

 

And it is obvious to everyone but you.

[TT-SEA]

No, you just changed what you were talking about when it started becoming clear you were wrong about the overall summer pattern. :) :) :) :)

 

And it is obvious to everyone but you.

Incorrect. Regime change came early. I switched to looking locally based on new set of analogs. Said it many times. I probably made the mistake early on of thinking local results would be more representative of the entire region. Phil was looking at the big picture and I was just looking at the expected results locally and both ended up correct. We should be giving credit to each other instead of arguing about forecasting for different things.

[Phil]

Incorrect. Regime change came early. I switched to looking locally based on new set of analogs. Said it many times. I probably made the mistake early on of thinking local results would be more representative of the entire region. Phil was looking at the big picture and I was just looking at the expected results locally and both ended up correct. We should be giving credit to each other instead of arguing about forecasting for different things.

I agree with this. We'll have to stop the stealthy, backhanded digs at one another if the bolded is to become reality, however.

 

Deal? Are we capable of that?

[TT-SEA]

I agree with this. We'll have to stop the stealthy, backhanded digs at one another if the bolded is to become reality, however.

Deal? Are we capable of that?

DEAL!

[Deweydog]

I smell bullshit!

[Jesse]

I smell bullshit!

Yeah, not gonna happen.

[TT-SEA]

At least we can make an effort.

[Phil]

Here is a much better representation of the last 90 days...

Remember, that's actually the preliminary data (before all quality control measures).

[TT-SEA]

Remember, that's actually the preliminary data (before all quality control measures).

 

 

Looks better than the NOAA map up here.  

 

Its clearly been above normal for JJA for the Puget Sound region up into Vancouver Island.    The NOAA map shows its all below normal up here and that is just plain wrong.   Every month has been above normal.  

[Deweydog]

Color wars!

[Phil]

Looks better than the NOAA map up here.

 

Its clearly been above normal for JJA for the Puget Sound region up into Vancouver Island. The NOAA map shows its all below normal up here and that is just plain wrong. Every month has been above normal.

The NOAA map overly smoothed, yes. The purpose is to depict regional temperature anomalies on a broad scale, rather than smaller scale variations.

 

The dominant trough position this summer has been over the PNW. I don't think anyone can deny this, looking at the 500mb height anomalies.

[TT-SEA]

Bellingham as an example... its been getting warmer as the summer as progressed.

 

June  +1.9

 

July  +2.0

 

August  +2.6 

 

 

Side note... the last 9 days of May included in the maps above were also above normal there.    The last third of May as about +2.0 there.  

[TT-SEA]

The NOAA map overly smoothed, yes. The purpose is to depict regional temperature anomalies on a broad scale, rather than smaller scale variations.

 

The dominant trough position this summer has been over the PNW. I don't think anyone can deny this, looking at the 500mb height anomalies.

 

 

Nobody is talking about the 500mb pattern.

 

Talking about temperatures.   Its been solidly above normal at every station in the Puget Sound region for the last 3 months... same with Vancouver Island and lower BC. 

 

Even OLM has been above normal every month this summer.  

 

The map I posted is much better representation up here for actual surface temperatures.

[Phil]

Uh, BLI has been a monstrous outlier to the majority of the region (even the I-5 corridor) this summer. Why reference a station that's been largely unrepresentative of the region?

[TT-SEA]

Uh, BLI has been a monstrous outlier to the majority of the region (even the I-5 corridor) this summer. Why reference a station that's been largely unrepresentative of the region?

 

 

SEA and WFO SEA have been about the same.    

 

Vancouver Island is even warmer.   

 

There is no station from Olympia northward that has been below normal this summer.    Every station has been above normal for every month.    Can't paint that blue.

[Phil]

Nobody is talking about the 500mb pattern.

 

Talking about temperatures. Its been solidly above normal at every station in the Puget Sound region for the last 3 months... same with Vancouver Island and lower BC.

 

Even OLM has been above normal every month this summer.

 

The map I posted is much better representation up here for actual surface temperatures.

You're completely missing the point. The NOAA map is designed to (and was in reference to) measure(d) temperatures on a broader scale to reflect systematic tendencies and behaviors through the summer. Not small scale variations.

 

The maps you're referencing don't even depict official, quality controlled data. Just preliminary anomalies.

[Deweydog]

Uh, BLI has been a monstrous outlier to the majority of the region (even the I-5 corridor) this summer. Why reference a station that's been largely unrepresentative of the region?

Most major stations on the I-5 corridor have been above average all three months.

[TT-SEA]

SEA:

 

June +2.6

 

July +1.1

 

August +2.4

 

 

 

WFO SEA:

 

June +2.6

 

July +1.1

 

August +2.1

[TT-SEA]

SEA NWS has climate records on 6 stations.

 

Every station for every month this summer has been above normal.

 

That is 18 out of 18.    (6 stations X 3 months)

 

Not one below normal month at even one station.   

[Deweydog]

He's busting out the bolds!!!

[Phil]

Most major stations on the I-5 corridor have been above average all three months.

July was not cooler than June at most locations, even along the I-5 corridor. All of this is, again, irrelevant to the point I was making initially.

 

A certain few people here are just allergic to facts.

[TT-SEA]

He's busting out the bolds!!!

No way to argue it. Simple math.  18 out of 18.  

 

Even includes a station like Quillayute that is so far removed from any UHI effect that a bear breathing would have more of an impact that any human development. 

[Phil]

SEA NWS has climate records on 6 stations.

 

Every station for every month this summer has been above normal.

 

That is 18 out of 18. (6 stations X 3 months)

 

Not one below normal month at even one station.

Did I argue otherwise? No. Read back to my initial post.

 

You're literally arguing with the air in your head.

[Phil]

Amazing how Tim will do everything in his power to start a fight, even if it means contradicting himself in the process.

 

June 10 - Aug 10 was troughy and cool overall... even more so down there.

So, was it troughy and cool? Or warm, humid, and ridgy?

[TT-SEA]

Did I argue otherwise? No. Read back to my initial post.

 

You're literally arguing with the air in your head.

 

 

If you are to paint a map of surface temperature anomalies across our region (and for Vancouver Island and lower BC) this summer... it has to be on the warm side of average.   

 

We all live on the surface!    

 

And you can't use UHI either... even the non-UHI stations have been above normal.

[Phil]

My post clearly isn't in reference to anomalies specific to the I-5 corridor. Context.

 

Not sure what provoked this nonsense.

[TT-SEA]

Amazing how Tim will do everything in his power to start a fight, even if it means contradicting himself in the process.

 

 

So, was it troughy and cool? Or warm, humid, and ridgy?

 

Each month was above normal.

 

Not saying anything right now about troughy.    It was troughy overall from June 10 - August 10.  And still above normal for EACH MONTH.

 

You cannot argue 18 out of 18.       

 

Every station... every month.   Above normal.

[Phil]

Troughy, cool, ridgy, and warm at the same time!