The Tim and Phil thread

[Phil]

I thought we were done after last night, but since you apparently wanted another fight, you're going to get one.

 

Again, you didn't even mention SEA or Puget Sound in your forecast(s). All you had to do was clarify this when I challenged you. Since you decided not to, it's fairly obvious that you're simply using SEA to wiggle out of yet another blown forecast.

 

Typical Tim, spinmaster.

[Phil]

I was reading the trends and the evolution correctly. And more importantly... I intimately understand what makes for a warm pattern in our specific Puget Sound region climate and what does not make for a warm pattern.

Yeah, you missed the mid/late July troughing and the early June heatwave, not to mention a summer that will be troughy over 80% of the time. You're just throwing darts, dude.

 

You were trying to shoot me down as quickly as possible and say I was wrong about the warm spell.

No, I was correcting your flawed interpretation of a model run.

[TT-SEA]

I thought we were done after last night, but since you apparently wanted another fight, you're going to get one.

 

Again, you didn't even mention SEA or Puget Sound in your forecast(s). All you had to do was clarify this when I challenged you. Since you decided not to, it's fairly obvious that you're simply using SEA to wiggle out of yet another blown forecast.

 

Typical Tim, spinmaster.

 

Really?   You want to shoot me down on 7/17 about the marine layer ruining the warm spell and then say you did not understand where I was referencing??   

 

Really?

 

So I could have been talking about Spokane or Boise and you were saying the marine layer would keep it cool there?    

 

STFU.  

[TT-SEA]

Hey Phill... maybe you should stop mocking me for my Puget Sound region forecasts which have been very good and stick to the big stuff. 

[Phil]

Really? You want to shoot me down on 7/17 about the marine layer ruining the warm spell and then say you did not understand where I was referencing??

 

Really?

 

So I could have been talking about Spokane or Boise and you were saying the marine layer would keep it cool there?

 

STFU.

Yeah, I shot down your terrible analysis OF A PARTICULAR MODEL RUN. Get it?

 

This isn't even relevant to our earlier discussion. Stop starting fights with me. You'll be a happier guy overall.

[Phil]

Hey Phill... maybe you should stop mocking me for my Puget Sound region forecasts which have been very good and stick to the big stuff.

How's the marine layer treating you today?

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I shot down your terrible analysis OF A PARTICULAR MODEL RUN. Get it?

This isn't even relevant to our earlier discussion. Stop starting fights with me. You'll be a happier guy overall.

HA!

 

King of misdirection.

 

Dewey specifically called you out for bad analysis of the models on that day!

 

You were wrong. Accept it and move on.

[TT-SEA]

How's the marine layer treating you today?

Sun is shining here... beautiful day for yardwork.

[Phil]

HA!

 

King of misdirection.

 

Dewey specifically called you out for bad analysis of the models on that day!

 

You were wrong. Accept it and move on.

Bullcrap. Your interpretation of that model run was demonstrably wrong. Okay?

 

My classes require me to read and interpret models 24/7. It's something I'm very good at..definitely more-so than you in this regard.

[Phil]

Sun is shining here... beautiful day for yardwork.

Then I guess you don't live in Seattle after all. Cloudy there and still 63 degrees as of 11AM. #negativedepartureday #troughing

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=SEA&num=48

[Phil]

How about you get started on that yardwork instead of wasting your day fighting with me.

[Phil]

Still think your +1.5 guess @ SEA was "too cold"? I have a screenshot of that gem, too.

 

You're soooo accurate when it comes to Puget Sound!

[ShawniganLake]

you guys really bring out the best in each other. 

[Phil]

you guys really bring out the best in each other.

I know right?

[TT-SEA]

Bullcrap. Your interpretation of that model run was demonstrably wrong. Okay?

My classes require me to read and interpret models 24/7. It's something I'm very good at..definitely more-so than you in this regard.

Dewey called you out that day... it was bad analysis. You don't know our climate well.

 

Don't bother. We know it.

[Phil]

Dewey called you out that day... it was bad analysis. You don't know our climate well.

 

Don't bother. We know it.

Your interpretation of that model was wrong. Get over it.

[TT-SEA]

Then I guess you don't live in Seattle after all. Cloudy there and still 63 degrees as of 11AM. #negativedepartureday #troughing

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=SEA&num=48

 

 

Sun is coming out in Seattle.

 

Marine layer days are going to start slow... evening high possible today.

 

[TT-SEA]

Your interpretation of that model was wrong. Get over it.

 

Amazing.

 

You are called out that day.   Proven to be wrong.   

 

And still are a complete j*ckass about it.  

[TT-SEA]

Still think your +1.5 guess @ SEA was "too cold"? I have a screenshot of that gem, too.

 

You're soooo accurate when it comes to Puget Sound!

 

SEA is at +1.3

 

Probably end up right around there.   Maybe +1.2 

 

I forecasted +1.4 in the contest.

 

Splitting hairs over 1 or 2 tenths of a degree.   

[MossMan]

Sun is coming out in Seattle.

 

Marine layer days are going to start slow... evening high possible today.

 

We have had zero marine influenced clouds up here today, just slightly cooler temps...perfection!

[Front Ranger]

Debate with Jared was about whether SEA represents the Seattle area.

 

That is why I was using BFI, RNT, and WFO SEA. Those are Seattle area stations.

 

You assumed badly again.

 

Maybe you should come visit King County. SEA, BFI, RNT, and WFO SEA are all within a few miles of each other.

SEA anomalies run on the warm side. Every month is different, but as a general rule, that is not debatable.

 

Therefore, using SEA as the standard for the Seattle area or Puget Sound region is inherently biased warm, from an anomaly perspective. Not necessarily for pure temps.

[TT-SEA]

SEA anomalies run on the warm side. Every month is different, but as a general rule, that is not debatable.

 

Therefore, using SEA as the standard for the Seattle area or Puget Sound region is inherently biased warm, from an anomaly perspective. Not necessarily for pure temps.

Fair enough.

 

RNT would be a good comparison.

 

In terms of actual temperature... SEA is a very good representation.

[Phil]

Amazing.

 

You are called out that day. Proven to be wrong.

 

And still are a complete j*ckass about it.

You're a delusional basket case. Your interpretation of that model was DEMONSTRABLY FALSE. Read the exchange carefully.

 

I posted the modeled soundings. YOU READ IT WRONG.

[Phil]

Another example of Tim's shenanigans. He claims I attacked his "forecast", then when I refute that, he suggests I "read the models wrong". What will he try next?

 

No mention of the "models" until 2hrs ago, then he shoots himself in the foot when the soundings are posted. Dude is wrong all the time. Irrelevant to the entirety of the discussion last night.

[Phil]

SEA anomalies run on the warm side. Every month is different, but as a general rule, that is not debatable.

 

Therefore, using SEA as the standard for the Seattle area or Puget Sound region is inherently biased warm, from an anomaly perspective. Not necessarily for pure temps.

Which is why I "mocked" him. He wasn't just forecasting for SEA, he was attempting to use SEA's anomalies to broadbrush the lowland PNW.

[TT-SEA]

Which is why I "mocked" him. He wasn't just forecasting for SEA, he was attempting to use SEA's anomalies to broadbrush the lowland PNW.

 

Right Phil.

 

Talking about the 5-10 day period on 7/17.    

 

 

 

 

You are misdirecting again.

 

SEA was not even the warmest spot.  

 

I said it was not a marine layer pattern... and it would be warm.   It was not a marine layer pattern and it WAS warm.   All over.

 

That is why Dewey called you out at the time.   And yesterday.   YOU WERE WRONG.   Move on.   

 

 

Do you even know that you start spraying crap all over to distract from being wrong?   

[TT-SEA]

Another example of Tim's shenanigans. He claims I attacked his "forecast", then when I refute that, he suggests I "read the models wrong". What will he try next?

 

No mention of the "models" until 2hrs ago, then he shoots himself in the foot when the soundings are posted. Dude is wrong all the time. Irrelevant to the entirety of the discussion last night.

Soundings???

 

1) Maps on 7/17 looked warm.

 

2) I said it looks warm in the models on 7/17.

 

3) You said on 7/17 it would be cool marine layer pattern for this past week

 

4) Dewey said on 7/17 that you are reading the models wrong and it would not be a marine layer pattern.

 

5) Dewey makes the point yesterday that it was not a marine layer pattern

 

6) You have been denying and misdirecting since yesterday.

 

Proved it with quotes.

 

Proved it with actual weather. It was very warm.

 

 

Very simple

 

Follow the steps... admit you were wrong... MOVE ON.

[Phil]

Right Phil.

 

Talking about the 5-10 day period on 7/17. You are misdirecting again. SEA was not even the warmest spot.

 

 

The only forecast I made was for the 7/15 to 7/25 window, which was cooler than average over a majority of the PNW lowlands. Do you understan this? Or are you mentally retarded?

 

The discussion you referenced was to a PARTICULAR MODEL RUN. You were misreading the temperature output, hence why I called you out.

 

I said it was not a marine layer pattern... and it would be warm. It was not a marine layer pattern and it WAS warm. All over.

THE MODEL SAID OTHERWISE, WE WERE DISCUSSING A F**KING MODEL RUN.

 

That is why Dewey called you out at the time. And yesterday. YOU WERE WRONG. Move on.

No, your interpretation of the model was wrong, as you yourself highlighted with your "comparison" yesterday. My forecast was for 7/15 to 7/25. Okay?

[Phil]

Give it up Tim. You're done.

[Phil]

Soundings???

 

1) Maps on 7/17 looked warm.

No, they didn't. Your maps are low resolution crap.

 

Remember how you pointed out the ECMWF was busting warm? It's because it was overemphasizing the marine layer.

 

2) I said it looks warm in the models on 7/17.

Yeah, incorrectly so, as the "cold bust" proved.

 

3) You said on 7/17 it would be cool marine layer pattern for this past week

No, I didn't. I said the ECMWF run depicted such a solution. Not my forecast, okay?

 

5) Dewey makes the point yesterday that it was not a marine layer pattern

I didn't forecast a marine layer pattern, you nitwit.

 

6) You have been denying and misdirecting since yesterday.

You've been making s**t up since yesterday.

 

Proved it with quotes.

 

Proved it with actual weather. It was very warm.

You proved that you're a clueless nitwit and should be banned from ever viewing a weather model again in your life.

 

Very simple

Apparently not for your feeble brain.

[Phil]

My quotes prove me right.

 

We were discussing the 12z ECMWF/EPS run, which at the time depicted a healthy marine layer. This is why the model busted warm, as you outlined in the main thread So yes, I read the model correctly, you read it wrong.

 

Here are the quotes you mentioned:

 

[TT-SEA]

Dewey and I read the pattern correctly and applied common sense based on living here and knowing the climate.

[Phil]

Dewey and I read the pattern correctly and applied common sense based on living here and knowing the climate.

The model was depicting a different pattern with a stronger marine layer, which is why it busted cold.

 

In other words, not my forecast, stupid.

 

I was correcting your faulty interpretation of the model run. Understood?

[Phil]

I wasn't wrong about anything. I never forecasted for the 7/17 to 7/31 timeframe. We were discussing a model run.

 

Give it up, Tim. You're going to lose this one, too.

[TT-SEA]

Fact is... you were looking for some way to shoot down my warm analysis that day. You have been doing it all summer and yet many of us in the Puget Sound region have been above normal on 60-70% of the days this summer and have even been above normal overall for the entire summer.

 

You wanted to shoot me down again just to do it. And you were wrong. Just accept it.

[Phil]

I was shooting down your misinterpretation of the modeled temperatures. That's all. Read the quotes, silly.

 

I didn't say anything about your forecast. I don't forecast for individual cities/microclimates to begin with. Heck, I even said your forecast was "within the realm of possibility". You're just making s**t up.

 

I'm telling you, you're going to waste what little summer you have left fighting with me over something that didn't even happen.

[TT-SEA]

I was shooting down your misinterpretation of the modeled temperatures. That's all.

I didn't say anything about your forecast, I don't forecast for individual cities/microclimates.. I even said your forecast was "within the realm of possibility". You're just making s**t up.

I'm telling you, you're going to waste what little summer you have left fighting with me over something that didn't happen.

 

You wanted to shoot down my comment that the models looked warm that day. That was your goal. Nobody made a forecast.

 

You were wrong. Dewey called you out at the time.

 

Deal with it.

[Phil]

The model wasn't warm, that's the point. I didn't agree with it, I was just correcting your faulty interpretation of what it was depicting, verbatim.

 

It busted on the cold side for a reason.

 

The only forecast I made was for the WA/OR lowlands in their entirety, The 7/15 to 7/25 period averaged cooler than normal over the majority of the lowlands. I don't forecast for individual cities and microclimates.

[Phil]

Give it up, Timmy. You're not gonna win.

 

I guarantee you will never get bulls**t past me. Ever.

[TT-SEA]

The model wasn't warm, that's the point. I didn't agree with it, I was just correcting your faulty interpretation of what it was depicting, verbatim.

It busted on the cold side for a reason.

The only forecast I made was for the WA/OR lowlands in their entirety, The 7/15 to 7/25 period averaged cooler than normal over the majority of the lowlands. I don't forecast for individual cities and microclimates.

You are wrong now and you were wrong then. You did not apply specific climate knowledge to what the models were showing. Dewey did that day... and he was right.

 

Deal with it nut job.