The Tim and Phil thread

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, and OLM, PDX, and EUG were cooler than average. As were 850mb temperatures across the entirety of the entire region.

 

This is as straightforward as it gets. I said "the majority of the westside". I never said anything about the Puget Sound area, or other specific areas.

 

 

You were mocking my forecast at the time.   

 

MY FORECAST HAS ALWAYS BEEN FOR THE SEATTLE AREA.

 

Good Lord.

[Deweydog]

He literally does this all the time. Usually it's more subtle, like intentionally misquoting me or spinning his own words to wiggle out of a bust.

 

This is why I've been such a "prick" lately. It's a clever strategy because I end up looking like the bad guy when I respond accordingly.

From an outsider's perspective you both look pretty bad. Lots of stuff twisted and turned to build a case full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

[TT-SEA]

From an outsider's perspective you both look pretty bad. Lots of stuff twisted and turned to build a case full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

 

Except I am not arguing about anything on a PNW regional level or his accuracy on that scale.  

 

He just endlessly attacks me for my forecast for the Seattle area.  

 

Its not subjective now.   Its basically in the books. 

[Phil]

Here's another example of what Tim does. Intentionally misquoting me, to prove a nonexistent point.

 

Mockingly telling me my Seattle forecast was bad and it would be cooler than normal due to NW flow and marine layer was wrong.

This did not happen. I didn't say anything about your "SEA forecast", because you didn't specify that you were talking about SEA when you made the forecast.

 

You're just using SEA to wiggle out of another bust. I mocked you for using SEA to broadbrush the westside, and I stand by that.

 

Why else would Flatiron have to call you out?

 

That and he was actually referring to this week which makes it even more wrong. I was making the argument that a really warm spell was coming. He did not like that idea and shot me down with marine layer BS. Dewey called him out then and again now.

This is more bulls**t. I clearly stated (in my forecast) that I was referring to the third week of July, or more specifically, the 7/15 to 7/25 period.

 

You're so desperate that you're literally making s**t up about me now.

[Phil]

Except I am not arguing about anything on a PNW regional level or his accuracy on that scale.

 

He just endlessly attacks me for my forecast for the Seattle area.

 

Its not subjective now. Its basically in the books.

Oh, I attack you? You started this entire exchange, just like you always do. Give me a break, dude.

 

You never specified that you were referring just to SEA. Rather, you implied and even tried to argue otherwise, contextually, hence the debate between you and Flatiron.

[TT-SEA]

Really Phil.

 

Dewey called you out on this week.    I am making it up?    

 

I have always forecasted for the Seattle area... for years.   And everything this month from me has only been for the Seattle area.   You made some bad assumptions buddy.    

[TT-SEA]

Oh, I attack you? You started this entire exchange, just like you always do. Give me a break, dude.

 

You never specified that you were referring just to SEA. Rather, you implied and even tried to argue otherwise, contextually, hence the debate between you and Flatiron.

 

 

Debate with Jared was about whether SEA represents the Seattle area.

 

That is why I was using BFI, RNT, and WFO SEA.    Those are Seattle area stations.   

 

You assumed badly again.

 

Maybe you should come visit King County.   SEA, BFI, RNT, and WFO SEA are all within a few miles of each other.   

[Phil]

Really Phil.

 

Dewey called you out on this week. I am making it up?

 

I have always forecasted for the Seattle area... for years. And everything this month from me has only been for the Seattle area. You made some bad assumptions buddy.

Yeah, and I clarified that I said nothing about this week in my forecast. Okay?

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, and I clarified that I said nothing about this week.

 

Look back at my posts if you don't believe me.

 

 

You clarified.   That does not mean its right.  

 

Dewey knows it was about this week and this warm spell.   

[Phil]

You clarified. That does not mean its right.

 

Dewey knows it was about this week and this warm spell.

Never happened. Quote it, I dare you.

[Phil]

Also, my posts describing model runs are not forecasts.

 

Just in case you attempt to spin things again.

[TT-SEA]

Never happened. Quote it, I dare you.

 

 

You already deleted or changed it.   

 

Word you used like NW flow and marine layer are completely gone now.    

 

Whatever.    So tired of your game.

[Phil]

You already deleted or changed it. Word you used like NW flow and marine layer are completely gone now.

 

Whatever. So tired of your game.

I haven't deleted or edited anything. Take off the tinfoil hat.

 

Post them, then iFred can confirm that I haven't edited them.

[TT-SEA]

Also, my posts describing model runs are not forecasts.

 

Just in case you attempt to spin things again.

 

 

Our westside climate is a b*tch to forecast.   You need to understand how things work here and that only comes from living here.   And then you can also see the real model tendencies.   

 

You misread model information all the time for our area.      

[Phil]

Ah, so now instead of my forecasts being wrong, my interpretation of the models is wrong?

 

You're hilarious.

[TT-SEA]

I haven't deleted or edited anything. Take off the tinfoil hat.

 

Post them, then iFred can confirm that I haven't edited them.

 

I am going to bed nut job.    

 

You were wrong locally.   Whatever.     

 

You did however fall apart when it came to the details. Maybe you didn't care, but you did try and failed.

 

You know how the old saying goes: if at first you don't succeed, don't try again because you suck.

 

[Phil]

I am going to bed nut job.

 

You were wrong locally. Whatever.

Haha, nutjob? You're like a petulant child, throwing haymakers, missing with all of them, tiring yourself out in the process. Classic Tim.

 

Sleep tight, don't let the cold anomalies bite.

[TT-SEA]

Haha, nutjob? You're like a petulant child, throwing haymakers, missing with all of them, tiring yourself out in the process. Classic Tim.

 

Sleep tight, don't let the cold anomalies bite.

 

You are the chilld... throwing temper tantrums and name calling for years.     Attacking every single time you are challenged.

 

Moving the target... changing topics... the king of misdirection.

 

 

I forecasted for the Seattle area.   I was right on for the Seattle area.   I never said anything about your regional assessment and in fact gave you credit on a regional level,

 

How can this still be going on??

 

What the f*ck else is there to discuss?

[Phil]

You are the chilld... throwing temper tantrums and name calling for years. Attacking every single time you are challenged.

 

Moving the target... changing topics... the king of misdirection.

So, I'm rubber you're glue? What you described above is exactly what you always do, and it's why I've been losing my temper with you lately. The fact you can't see it is simply astonishing.

 

 

I forecasted for the Seattle area. I was right on for the Seattle area. I never said anything about your regional assessment and in fact gave you credit on a regional level.

You should probably specify that, because you made no mention of this (convenient) fact until the last few weeks. Months went by without clarifying this. Hmmm.

 

How can this still be going on??

 

What the f*ck else is there to discuss?

You started this whole thing.

 

Stop starting arguments with me and this won't happen anymore. In the main thread, for example, you just started another one over my post regarding the analog aggregate I'm using. That post had absolutely nothing to do with you! Yet, you interjected yourself into it, and made a bunch of nonsense claims about my feelings on 1988 for some reason. Like, seriously?

 

Give me a f**king break.

[TT-SEA]

So, I'm rubber you're glue? What you described above is exactly what you always do, and it's why I've been losing my temper with you lately. The fact you can't see it is simply astonishing.

 

 

 

You should probably specify that, because you made no mention of this (convenient) fact until the last few weeks. Months went by without clarifying this. Hmmm.

 

 

You started this whole thing.

 

Stop starting arguments with me and this won't happen anymore. In the main thread, for example, you just started another one over my post regarding the analog aggregate I'm using. That post had absolutely nothing to do with you! Yet, you interjected yourself into it, and made a bunch of nonsense claims about my feelings on 1988 for some reason. Like, seriously?

 

Give me a f**king break.

 

 

Dewey called you out today... not me.

 

He was right.  

[Phil]

Dewey called you out today... not me.

 

He was right.

I clarified to Dewey the timeframe I was referencing, and he acknowledged it and moved on. You know, like an adult.

 

You weren't involved, so you should've stayed out of it.

[TT-SEA]

I clarified to Dewey the timeframe I was referencing, and he acknowledged it and moved on. You know, like an adult.

 

You weren't involved, so you should've stayed out of it.

 

 

No.    Dewey reply to your clarification was that you have consistently blown it with the fine details.     He did not say you were right.  

[Phil]

No. Dewey reply to your clarification was that you have consistently blown it with the fine details. He did not say you were right.

No, stupid, he acknowledged the timeframe I was referring to. That means I was right, because the majority of the region (WA/OR) west of the Cascades was cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25, including PDX, OLM, and SEA.

 

Understand?

[TT-SEA]

No, stupid, he acknowledged the timeframe I was referring to. That means I was right, because the majority of the region (WA/OR) west of the Cascades was cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25, including PDX, OLM, and SEA.

 

Understand?

 

Nope.   

 

He called you out appropriately.   He knew what you were doing at the time and he knows it did not work out.     

 

Spot on.    

 

We were talking about a 8-10 day ECMWF maps last week.   It was not in reference to anything close to the 15th.  

[Phil]

Nope.

 

He called you out appropriately. He knew what you were doing at the time and he knows it did not work out.

 

Spot on.

My forecast was only for 7/15 to 7/25, which he acknowledged:

 

He said the 15th to 25th.

The majority of the lowland PNW was cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25, including OLM, PDX, and EUG.

 

Alright?

[Phil]

Remember:

 

My posts describing model runs are not forecasts.

See, I'm *clarifying* this. Something you should do more often.

[TT-SEA]

My forecast was only for 7/15 to 7/25, which he acknowledged:

 

 

The majority of the lowland PNW was cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25, including OLM, PDX, and EUG.

 

Alright?

 

 

Wow.

 

Dewey was just acknowledging that you were now bringing up July 15-25 and my map did not match.   

 

Not that you were right.   

[Phil]

Wow.

 

Dewey was just acknowledging that you were now bringing up July 15-25 and my map did not match.

 

Not that you were right.

The only forecast I ever made was for 7/15 to 7/25.

 

If you think otherwise, quote where you think I said something different. If you can't do that, then shut the f**k up.

[TT-SEA]

The only forecast I ever made was for 7/15 to 7/25. If you think otherwise, quote it. You know, "put up or shut up".

 

So, either quote where you think I said otherwise, or shut the f**k up.

 

Forecast?   

 

You were mocking me for my Seattle area forecast and saying that what I thought was a warm pattern was actually cool and cloudy because of an inversion.  

 

You were not making a forecast... you were mocking my forecast.   My forecast ended up very right and you blew it on the details. 

 

But it was just a knee-jerk response from you anyways to attack me for daring to predict it would turn warm.    But it did.

 

Good night nut job.  

[Phil]

Forecast?

 

You were mocking me for my Seattle area forecast and saying that what I thought was a warm pattern was actually cool and cloudy because of an inversion.

Quote it.

 

Again, you weren't referring to SEA. Or if you were, you didn't specifically say it. I was mocking you because you implied the majority of the lowland PNW would be warmer than average in the 7/15 to 7/25 period, and you were extrapolating SEA's anomalies to make that point.

 

You were not making a forecast... you were mocking my forecast. My forecast ended up very right and you blew it on the details.

Bullcrap. Quote it.

 

I don't make localized forecasts like that. You should know this by now. I stated the majority of the lowland PNW would be cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25, and I was right.

 

But it was just a knee-jerk response from you anyways to attack me for daring to predict it would turn warm. But it did.

 

Good night nut job.

Nope, you're just having another anxiety attack, probably because your warm spell is coming to an end. In the process, you've probably entered some sort of delusional state, where things to think happened never actually did.

[TT-SEA]

OK. Here is part of the conversation being referenced. You want quotes... here are quotes.

Conversation is happening on 7/17 and in reference to this past week. We are discussing the possibilities of a warm spell coming after day 5. Not the July 15-25 period.   

Do not try and mix in other conversations from other days either to confuse the issue and misdirect.

 

Dewey called out Phil at the time... and again yesterday after the period referenced happened. You are wrong Phil, but you will argue for days to prove you did not say something THAT YOU DID SAY. Sound like the McHenry discussion? ITS YOU PHIL.

Trying to make an argument that the marine layer would keep it cooler than average through 7/28. Bad argument done just because I said the models looked warm. And it ended up being warm!










The period being referenced in this discussion begins after 7/22 since it was already 7/17 at the time.

Here are the maps beginning 7/22 through the 7/28 date Phil references above:







END OF DISCUSSION.

[Deweydog]

No, stupid, he acknowledged the timeframe I was referring to. That means I was right, because the majority of the region (WA/OR) west of the Cascades was cooler than average from 7/15 to 7/25, including PDX, OLM, and SEA.

 

Understand?

For the record, you're both wrong. A lot.

 

Tim's been consistently wrong about the very big picture while you've excelled. He's excelled on the much smaller scale while you've been consistently wrong. Different methods, similar overall results. Both aspects are important.

 

The NW flow thing was just an example of an area where you need a little improvement if you want to be considered the east coast west coast guru or whatever.

[TT-SEA]

For the record, you're both wrong. A lot.

 

Tim's been consistently wrong about the very big picture while you've excelled. He's excelled on the much smaller scale while you've been consistently wrong. Different methods, similar overall results. Both aspects are important.

 

The NW flow thing was just an example of an area where you need a little improvement if you want to be considered the east coast west coast guru or whatever.

 

 

I would not say consistently wrong for me this year.   

 

I said persistence through the middle of the summer back in April and May.   That was clearly wrong.   

 

After that I shifted to Nina regime analogs and I am mostly focusing locally.   I did see this recent warm spell coming well before Phil and that was a big picture event.

[Phil]

OK. Here is part of the conversation being referenced. You want quotes... here are quotes.

 

Conversation is happening on 7/17 and in reference to this past week. We are discussing the possibilities of a warm spell coming after day 5. Not the July 15-25 period.

Do not try and mix in other conversations from other days either to confuse the issue and misdirect.

 

Dewey called out Phil at the time... and again yesterday after the period referenced happened. You are wrong Phil, but you will argue for days to prove you did not say something THAT YOU DID SAY. Sound like the McHenry discussion? ITS YOU PHIL.

 

Trying to make an argument that the marine layer would keep it cooler than average through 7/28. Bad argument done just because I said the models looked warm. And it ended up being warm!

 

END OF DISCUSSION.

That was me describing a model run, you dumb s**t.

 

Also, my posts describing model runs are not forecasts.

 

 

Do you have a case of early-onset Alzheimer's or something?

 

[TT-SEA]

That was me describing a model run, you dumb s**t. I swear dude, you're going to waste the rest of your summer fighting with me at this rate.

 

 

Yeah... that was good read on the situation by you!     I was looking at the same models at the same time and saw the warm spell coming.

 

I was also looking at the same models in late June and I saw a big troughy period coming when you mocking me about that as well.   

 

New flash... you missed the warm spell at that time because you were more interested in immediately cutting me down for saying it was probably going to get warm rather than being honest about it.   

[TT-SEA]

Remember nut job... Dewey called you out on this one.

 

HE CALLED YOU OUT ON 7/17 AND AGAIN YESTERDAY.

 

He was 100% right to do so both times.   

 

You chose to fight with me about this.  

[Phil]

Yeah... that was good read on the situation by you! I was looking at the same models at the same time and saw the warm spell coming.

 

I was also looking at the same models in late June and I saw a big troughy period coming when you mocking me about that as well.

Stop spinning, it won't work. None of the models even had an early-July troughy period until five days out, and it was unimpressive relative to the mid/late month troughing.

 

You also missed the early June heatwave and the troughing during the second half of July, not to mention the entirety of the summer pattern.

 

The models have nothing to do any of this.

 

New flash... you missed the warm spell at that time because you were more interested in immediately cutting me down for saying it was probably going to get warm rather than being honest about it.

News flash, my July forecast was MUCH better than yours, even with your constant "adjustments". You missed the mid/late month troughing, just like you missed the early June heatwave.

[Phil]

Another example Tim's shenanigans, intentionally taking posts out of context.

 

All I was doing in that post was correcting Tim's flawed interpretation of a particular model run. Now he spins it into "you read the model wrong, I was right".

 

This guy.

[TT-SEA]

Hey Phill... maybe you should stop mocking me for my Puget Sound region forecasts which have been very good and stick to the big stuff.    Maybe??  

 

Obviously it can be warm here when its not warm regionally.   And it can be warm here in a troughy pattern as well.  

 

LET IT GO.

 

What happens in my area is far more important to me than the big picture.   You care about the big picture.

 

BOTH TYPES OF ANALYSIS CAN CO-EXIST AND NOT CONFLICT.

[TT-SEA]

Another example Tim's shenanigans, intentionally taking posts out of context.

 

All I was doing in that post was correcting Tim's flawed interpretation of a particular model run. Now he spins it into "you read the model wrong, I was right".

 

This guy.

 

 

I was reading the trends and the evolution correctly.  And more importantly... I intimately understand what makes for a warm pattern in our specific Puget Sound region climate and what does not make for a warm pattern.

 

You were trying to shoot me down as quickly as possible and say I was wrong about the warm spell.