September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

We will see. Forcing does not always work out the way you think.

The models could always be off w/ regards to the tropical forcings. They certainly were for that 2-week period in August.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF definitely more troughy at day 9 and 10 though.   

 

Like to see the improvements in the mid range of course.  

[Phil]

Big trough into the NE (down to even Phil) by next Sunday.

Well, now we know *for sure* that this run is wrong.

[Bryant]

And not warming up either right?

 

Really warm anomalies in the 10-15 day period... warm up starts earlier.

 

I said the control and the EPS... the control is warm by day 9.

I never said they didn't show warming, but as usual your depiction of the models was a bit exaggerated

[TT-SEA]

I never said they didn't show warming, but as usual your depiction of the models was a bit exaggerated

 

Nope.   I said the EPS and the control run.   I was accurate with that run.

 

We will see what the 12Z EPS shows. 

 

You are just splitting tiny hairs to start something for no apparent reason at all.  

[Phil]

Let's not do this today.

 

Mama Nature is probably sitting back in her lounge chair, laughing her a** off as we fight amongst ourselves trying to figure out her next move.

[TT-SEA]

Let's not do this today.

 

Mama Nature is probably sitting back in her lounge chair, laughing her a** off as we fight amongst ourselves trying to figure out her next move.

 

 

Totally!  

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF likes the idea of bringing another shot of cool air in here around the 11th or 12th also.  I'm liking it!

[snow_wizard]

I never said they didn't show warming, but as usual your depiction of the models was a bit exaggerated

 

A bit?

[Phil]

Nice to see a bunch of cool air up in Canada in the extended range, 12z ECMWF included. Just have to keep the PV at-bay, and then maybe this will start dropping into the US later in September on a more regular basis. Also would prefer that vortex evacuate the western Arctic sooner rather than later.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/FCA517ED-1786-406F-8672-15868D281863_zpsmlurqdn4.png

[Jesse]

A bit?

It's funny how he claims he doesn't care if it's above normal or below normal as long as it's sunny, but then spends the majority of his waking hours doggedly chasing warm anomalies on the models.

 

Following certain aspects of the weather because you legitimately enjoy them is one thing. Following them based solely on the fact that it is important to you that a select few people are unhappy must qualify as some sort of mental illness.

[Jesse]

12z Euro was really nice.

[TT-SEA]

A bit?

 

 

Not exaggerated at all for the 00Z ECMWF run.   That was the run being discussed at the time, Jim.

[TT-SEA]

It's funny how he claims he doesn't care if it's above normal or below normal as long as it's sunny, but then spends the majority of his waking hours doggedly chasing warm anomalies on the models.

 

Following certain aspects of the weather because you legitimately enjoy them is one thing. Following them based solely on the fact that it is important to you that a select few people are unhappy must qualify as some sort of mental illness.

 

Reporting this post.    

 

I am posting honestly the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z ECMWF runs and things I like to see.

 

JUST LIKE EVERYONE ELSE HERE.  

 

I like all kinds of weather.

[TT-SEA]

Also going to show Fred my PM box with threats and truly vile comments from Jesse.  

 

Want to talk about insane?  

[Jesse]

Also going to show Fred my PM box with threats and truly vile comments from Jesse.

 

Want to talk about insane?

Threats?

 

There is nothing I've said in those I haven't said on the main forum. You have some serious issues. Clear to everyone here but you.

[Deweydog]

You're both nuts.

 

Go out and enjoy the low geopotential heights!

[TT-SEA]

Threats?

 

There is nothing I've said in those I haven't said on the main forum. You have some serious issues. Clear to everyone here but you.

 

 

OK Jesse... good to know for the millionth time.   So do you.  

 

The biggest problem I have is that my weather preferences do no align with you... and I post lots of model data.     That is a fact.

 

Oh frickin well.   

[Phil]

You're both nuts.

 

Go out and enjoy the low geopotential heights!

We're all nuts. We laugh, cry, and bicker over frozen water falling from the sky and/or the vibrational frequencies of gaseous molecules.

 

At least you lawyer people for materialistic gain, so you're somewhat normal.

[Deweydog]

We're all nuts. We laugh, cry, and bicker over frozen water falling from the sky and/or the vibrational frequencies of gaseous molecules.

 

At least you lawyer people for materialistic gain, so you're somewhat normal.

Some just excel at it more than others, whether it be irrational concerns about how others feel about the weather or ego-driven insult-fests bellowed from the summit of Stampede Pass.

 

But you're right, a certain level of nuts is a prerequisite here.

[TT-SEA]

EPS ensemble mean and control run do not agree with the operational ECMWF for days 9 and 10. 

 

They are both more ridgy and warmer.

 

Here is the ensemble mean at day 10... compared to the operational run.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls00/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls00-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Pffi8B.png

[TT-SEA]

Hey Phil... what is the ECMWF control run?     

 

WeatherBell must think its important because they link it so prominently.   

[TT-SEA]

A bit?

 

 

12Z ECMWF EPS  is about the same as the 00Z run.    Warm in the period being discussed above.  

 

No exaggeration.  

[Phil]

Some just excel at it more than others, whether it be irrational concerns about how others feel about the weather or ego-driven insult-fests bellowed from the summit of Stampede Pass.

 

But you're right, a certain level of nuts is a prerequisite here.

I think it's more how we express our nuttiness.

 

Some proudly display it, while others attempt to conceal it under a smooth, above-the-fray attitude.

[Deweydog]

I think it's more how we express our nuttiness.

 

Some proudly display it, while others attempt to conceal it under a smooth, above-the-fray attitude.

Or, people are what they are. Just because you strived for so long (and probably are still to a much lesser degree) to conceal who you really are doesn't mean the rest of us are.

 

Most of the people here have a pretty organic feel to them. The BS meter rarely spikes with the locals.

[TT-SEA]

EPS ensemble mean 850mb anomalies for the 10-15 day period.

 

[Phil]

Hey Phil... what the ECMWF control run?

 

WeatherBell must think its important because they link it so prominently.

It's the unperturbed EPS ensemble member. Ensemble aggregations work by "perturbing" (slightly tweaking) the initial conditions fed into the model, to account for weaknesses & potential error in the observed data fed into the model. The "control run" operates with the same general physics and resolution as the rest of the EPS members, but is "un-tweaked".

 

The OP ECMWF is run on a higher resolution w/ slightly different physics than the ensembles, so the control run is basically the "OP" within the ensemble system.

 

A more detailed picture of the reasoning for perturbing ensembles is as follows. Basically, a model initializes, processes, and extrapolates (forecasts) a future evolution of the systematic boundary state based on the aggregation of observed data fed into it. However, this data is obviously not perfect...there are gaps, measurement errors, processing errors, and biases inherent to both the data as well as the physics/parameterizations within the model itself that will throw the solution off. Perturbing the data input and initializion scheme(s) produces a range of outcomes throught to more or less follow the guide of potential uncertainty itself, while OP runs work to reduce uncertainty directly w/ more data, fewer parameterizations, and smaller initial parcel grids.

[TT-SEA]

It's the unperturbed EPS ensemble member. Ensemble aggregations work by "perturbing" (slightly tweaking) the initial conditions fed into the model, to account for weaknesses & potential error in the observed data fed into the model. The "control run" is run w/ the same physics as the rest of the EPS members, but is "un-tweaked". The OP ECMWF is run on a higher resolution w/ slightly different physics than the ensembles, so the control run is basically the "OP" within the ensemble system.

 

A more detailed picture of the reasoning for perturbing ensembles is as follows. Basically, a model initializes, processes, and extrapolates (forecasts) a future evolution of the systematic boundary state based on the aggregation of observed data fed into it. However, this data is obviously not perfect...there are gaps, measurement errors, processing errors, and biases inherent to both the data as well as the physics/parameterizations within the model itself that will throw the solution off. Perturbing the data input and initializion scheme(s) produces a range of outcomes throught to better follow the guide of uncertainty itself.

 

 

Good information... thanks!  

[Phil]

Or, people are what they are. Just because you strived for so long (and probably are still to a much lesser degree) to conceal who you really are doesn't mean the rest of us are.

 

Most of the people here have a pretty organic feel to them. The BS meter rarely spikes with the locals.

Well, taking a post completely out-of-context, then going into attack mode over it certainly doesn't help your case, nut.

 

My point was that, despite our very different personalities and opinions, we all share the same crazy hobby, and we all embrace it because we post here. The fact you jumped to "some are crazier than others" (and attacked my character) proves my original premise to be correct.

 

You're just as nutty as the rest of us, you just conceal it for the same reason I lied about my location and make dramatic posts..ego, forum stature, and a desire for attention.

[Phil]

Good information... thanks!

No problem.

 

BTW, I PM'ed you my facebook info.

[snow_wizard]

You're both nuts.

 

Go out and enjoy the low geopotential heights!

 

I'm thinking of throwing a low height party tonight!

[wx_statman]

This could be the cover for a guidebook about this forum:

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see a bunch of cool air up in Canada in the extended range, 12z ECMWF included. Just have to keep the PV at-bay, and then maybe this will start dropping into the US later in September on a more regular basis. Also would prefer that vortex evacuate the western Arctic sooner rather than later.

 

 

Love seeing those cold colors over the northern tier west of the Great Lakes.  That is very much the same look the CPC is predicting for this winter.

[snow_wizard]

PDX may put up a -7 or so today.  A nice first three days of September for them.

[Deweydog]

Well, taking a post completely out-of-context, then going into attack mode over it certainly doesn't help your case, nut.

 

My point was that, despite our very different personalities and opinions, we all share the same crazy hobby, and we all embrace it because we post here. The fact you jumped to "some are crazier than others" (and attacked my character) proves my original premise to be correct.

 

You're just as nutty as the rest of us, you just conceal it for the same reason I lied about my location and make dramatic posts..ego, forum stature, and a desire for attention.

Down, boy.

 

It's one thing to abide in a state of forum craziness, it's another to have extensive back and forths in private messaging, reporting others to the forum heiarchy, going out of your way to personally insult people in some geeked up power struggle.

 

There's a butt load of irony in your assessment of me given the fact I don't embellish my credentials, I don't exaggerate my knowledge and I don't overcook my weather observations. I just don't think you appreciate honesty because honesty is not your first language.

 

If someone pays attention to something I post, so be it. It is however clear you have and still do go out of your way for attention, and it bites you in the a** pretty routinely, which is sad because you have a valuable skill set but you just haven't quite shook the whole lying d-bag thing and it bleeds through.

[Phil]

Easy there, friend. Why make this personal?

 

I think it's more how we express our nuttiness.

 

Some proudly display it, while others attempt to conceal it under a smooth, above-the-fray attitude.

Quite an extravagant reaction to such a small poke. Come on, you know I'm right. Remove your suit and tie, set down the briefcase, and join the rest of us at club nutcase.

[Deweydog]

Easy there, friend. Why make this personal?

 

 

Quite an extravagant reaction to such a small poke. Come on, you know I'm right. Remove your suit and tie, set down the briefcase, and join the rest of us at club nutcase.

 

I joined this nut house before your nuts dropped.  

 

I win.

[TT-SEA]

Phil... maybe some fall-ish weather for you next weekend!     At least much less humid.  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_198_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

Edit... I see the NE flow around the storm offshore has your dewpoint down to 57 right now.   

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS looking nice.

[Deweydog]

18Z GFS looking nice.

 

Fall ball reigns supreme!