September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Pretty clear upward trend overall...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Nice!!

[TT-SEA]

Nice!!

18Z GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean are even nicer.

 

However... you are only allowed to like one type of weather. Cheering for active weather and some rain and then warmer weather and sunshine is not allowed.

[Phil]

I'm going to respond to a few things here, then I'm moving on.

 

I honestly didn't realize how greatly you value your "holier than thou" pedestal. If I had, I wouldn't have poked you about it. So for that, I apologize, and will refrain from bringing it up again after this exchange.

 

That being said, some of your characterizations of me (at least nowadays) ooze the same degree of "irony" you claim exists within my apparent "assessment" of you.

 

There's a butt load of irony in your assessment of me given the fact I don't embellish my credentials, I don't exaggerate my knowledge and I don't overcook my weather observations. I just don't think you appreciate honesty because honesty is not your first language.

Aside from the fact I haven't done any of this in years, your repeated accusatory labeling of me (and others) as attention seekers easily makes you the king of "irony", given you're probably the most prolific attention-seeker here. To elaborate, it's more or less the fact you've constructed an entire personality here, solely for the purpose of distinguishing yourself as "above" everyone else, which you seek to maintain even if it requires you to attack and/or characterize others' "personalities" in contrast to "your" personality you've constructed here. It's annoying.

 

 

If someone pays attention to something I post, so be it. It is however clear you have and still do go out of your way for attention, and it bites you in the a** pretty routinely, which is sad because you have a valuable skill set but you just haven't quite shook the whole lying d-bag thing and it bleeds through.

Honestly, this is exactly what I feel you do, only you go about it differently than used to. The difference now is, I've let go and moved on from the metaphorically photoshopped version of myself I constructed here, while you have yet to come close to doing so.

[Phil]

Phil... maybe some fall-ish weather for you next weekend! At least much less humid.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_198_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

Edit... I see the NE flow around the storm offshore has your dewpoint down to 57 right now.

Heck yeah, I spent most of the afternoon outside. Actually might be able to sleep with the windows open for the first time in four months.

 

Unfortunately, we're right back into low/mid 90s next week, then more heat after the next brief cooldown.

[wx_statman]

I'm going to respond to a few things here, then I'm moving on.

 

I honestly didn't realize how greatly you value your "holier than thou" pedestal. If I had, I wouldn't have poked you about it. So for that, I apologize, and will refrain from bringing it up again after this exchange.

 

That being said, some of your characterizations of me (at least nowadays) ooze the same degree of "irony" you claim exists within my apparent "assessment" of you.

 

 

Aside from the fact I haven't done any of this in years, your repeated accusatory labeling of me (and others) as attention seekers easily makes you the king of "irony", given you're probably the most prolific attention-seeker here. To elaborate, it's more or less the fact you've constructed an entire personality here, solely for the purpose of distinguishing yourself as "above" everyone else, which you seek to maintain even if it requires you to attack and/or characterize others' "personalities" in contrast to "your" personality you've constructed here. It's annoying.

 

 

 

Honestly, this is exactly what I feel you do, only you go about it differently than used to. The difference now is, I've let go and moved on from the metaphorically photoshopped version of myself I constructed here, while you have yet to come close to doing so.

 

In my opinion, deweydog is probably the most level-headed and rational person who consistently posts here. 

 

I didn't make this post to knock you, this is just my opinion of deweydog. 

[Phil]

In my opinion, deweydog is probably the most level-headed and rational person who consistently posts here.

 

I didn't make this post to knock you, this is just my opinion of deweydog.

I respect your opinion.

 

It's my opinion that he holds an obsessive desire to be viewed as "level headed" and truly "holier than thou", relative to everyone else here. It's also my opinion that he takes care to make sure this "image" remains unchallenged, even if it means attacking the characters and personalities of others here.

 

Hence, why he went off when I jokingly compared him to the people he spends his time constrasting himself with.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles are the coolest yet.

[Jesse]

Just checked the Euro ensembles too. They are actually cooler than the operational over the weekend. Then just as cool as the op beyond that until the day 10 frame, where things are clearly becoming pretty smoothed.

[Jesse]

VUO scored a 68/48 today. Early October-ish.

[TT-SEA]

Clear upward trend on 18Z GFS ensembles.   

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Deweydog]

I'm going to respond to a few things here, then I'm moving on.

 

I honestly didn't realize how greatly you value your "holier than thou" pedestal. If I had, I wouldn't have poked you about it. So for that, I apologize, and will refrain from bringing it up again after this exchange.

 

That being said, some of your characterizations of me (at least nowadays) ooze the same degree of "irony" you claim exists within my apparent "assessment" of you.

 

 

Aside from the fact I haven't done any of this in years, your repeated accusatory labeling of me (and others) as attention seekers easily makes you the king of "irony", given you're probably the most prolific attention-seeker here. To elaborate, it's more or less the fact you've constructed an entire personality here, solely for the purpose of distinguishing yourself as "above" everyone else, which you seek to maintain even if it requires you to attack and/or characterize others' "personalities" in contrast to "your" personality you've constructed here. It's annoying.

 

 

 

Honestly, this is exactly what I feel you do, only you go about it differently than used to. The difference now is, I've let go and moved on from the metaphorically photoshopped version of myself I constructed here, while you have yet to come close to doing so.

I just don't think you like being challenged in any way shape or form. Case in point. You can't let this go.

 

As I and others have said, you are an intelligent guy, but level-headedness is not quite on your radar yet and you get lost in your own vanity. We all have to deal with the fallout of this and I think most people tolerate it fairly well, look for the good in it.

[Jesse]

Clear upward trend on 18Z GFS ensembles.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Ensemble mean continues to look cooler than previous runs, though. More show the cool trough around days 8-10, and more cool members in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

Heck yeah, I spent most of the afternoon outside. Actually might be able to sleep with the windows open for the first time in four months.

 

Unfortunately, we're right back into low/mid 90s next week, then more heat after the next brief cooldown.

 

Enjoy!  

[TT-SEA]

Ensemble mean continues to look cooler than previous runs, though. More show the cool trough around days 8-10, and more cool members in the long range.

 

 

Ensemble mean heights around 582DM next weekend... sounds like a nice weekend regardless.   

 

And the ridge builds strongly in the 10-15 day period.

[Deweydog]

I think it will cool down after the warm up.

[TT-SEA]

I think it will cool down after the warm up.

 

Good call.   

[TT-SEA]

Alabama or USC... who do we hate more?   

[FroYoBro]

Alabama or USC... who do we hate more?   

Alabama is going to destroy USC.

[FroYoBro]

Alabama is going to destroy USC.

Maybe that was a bad prediction. 

[Phil]

I just don't think you like being challenged in any way shape or form. Case in point. You can't let this go.

I hate being challenged? Look in the mirror.

 

I jokingly poked you (I didn't even call you out directly) and your response was a super defensive, long winded novel about how I'm a liar, an attention seeker, an exaggerator, etc. Literally a dramatic, exaggeratory rant about me being dramatic and exaggeratory. Come on, even you have to admit the ridiculousness of this.

 

As I and others have said, you are an intelligent guy, but level-headedness is not quite on your radar yet and you get lost in your own vanity.

You've said this a million times. You have this tendency (I'm not sure if it's conscious or subconscious) to analyze, critique, and label people by character and/or motivation. It's quite off putting, to say the least.

[GHweatherChris]

I hate being challenged? Look in the mirror.

 

I jokingly poked you (I didn't even call you out directly) and your response was a super defensive, long winded novel about how I'm a liar, an attention seeker, an exaggerator, etc. Literally a dramatic, exaggeratory rant about me being dramatic and exaggeratory. Come on, even you have to admit the ridiculousness of this.

 

 

You've said this a million times. You have this tendency (I'm not sure if it's conscious or subconscious) to analyze, critique, and label people by character and/or motivation. It's quite off putting, to say the least.

Wow.

[Bryant]

Wow.

Wow.

[wx_statman]

I hate being challenged? Look in the mirror.

 

I jokingly poked you (I didn't even call you out directly) and your response was a super defensive, long winded novel about how I'm a liar, an attention seeker, an exaggerator, etc. Literally a dramatic, exaggeratory rant about me being dramatic and exaggeratory. Come on, even you have to admit the ridiculousness of this.

 

 

You've said this a million times. You have this tendency (I'm not sure if it's conscious or subconscious) to analyze, critique, and label people by character and/or motivation. It's quite off putting, to say the least.

 

Come on dude. We all do that. That's human nature. 

[MossMan]

Power just went out! A precursor to this coming awesomely severe winter???

[Bryant]

Come on dude. We all do that. That's human nature.

Yes, yes we do

[Bryant]

Power just went out! A precursor to this coming awesomely severe winter???

Windy over there?

[Phil]

Come on dude. We all do that. That's human nature.

Sure, we all hold various opinions of one another, and we all interpret things differently from time to time. There's a difference between sharing those opinions within the appropriate context, and regurgitating the same character attacks solely to diminish and insult someone, all based on a number of perceived dispositions.

[GHweatherChris]

Wow.

I know he is a smart dude, but he is completely oblivious to how he is percieved here, he doesn't get it.

 

Why you defend him is baffling.

 

Anyone that gets offended by internet forum oponions has more issues than I can imagine!

[snow_wizard]

PDX is running -6 for the first three days of September, while SEA has only managed a pathetic -2.3.

[wx_statman]

Sure, we all hold various opinions of one another, and we all interpret things differently from time to time. There's a difference between sharing those opinions within the appropriate context, and regurgitating the same character attacks solely to diminish and insult someone, all based on a number of perceived dispositions.

 

I see it as more of a back and forth...

[Phil]

I know he is a smart dude, but he is completely oblivious to how he is percieved here, he doesn't get it.

 

Why you defend him is baffling.

 

Anyone that gets offended by internet forum oponions has more issues than I can imagine!

Well, I'm not "offended" at all, so I think it's your perception of people that needs work, not mine.

 

I know very well how you (and a few others) perceive me. I've made it clear that I don't like you, and you've made it clear you don't like me. Let's leave it at that and be done with it.

[snow_wizard]

In the really bizarre category....PDX had a -7.5 today while Bellingham had a +2.

 

Kind of the same thing we saw in July with southern areas being more anomalously cold.

[snow_wizard]

18z ensembles are the coolest yet.

 

The little cold shot on September 12th has really emerged nicely today.  Very good chance we will see the region as a whole run below normal for the first half of the month.

[GHweatherChris]

Well, I'm not "offended" at all, so I think it's your perception of people that needs work, not mine.

 

I know very well how you (and a few others) perceive me. I've made it clear that I don't like you, and you've made it clear you don't like me. Let's leave it at that and be done with it.

If you weren't offended you would not act the way you do, pretty simple...

[MossMan]

Windy over there?

Not at all...currently a mystery.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe that was a bad prediction. 

 

 

No... its was a solid prediction.

[TT-SEA]

The little cold shot on September 12th has really emerged nicely today.  Very good chance we will see the region as a whole run below normal for the first half of the month.

 

Here is the afternoon of 9/12 on the 18Z GFS:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_222_500_vort_ht.gif

 

The EPS ensemble mean does not really show much of a trough next weekend or early the follow week either.     

[Phil]

Quite an interesting pattern being forecasted for the second half of September, especially by the GEFS. Notable poleward displacement of the climatological anticyclones. This would increase the potential for a wave to break right into the Arctic circle at some point in late September.

[Phil]

If you weren't offended you would not act the way you do, pretty simple...

Or, maybe you're just not very good at reading social cues?

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the most recent ECMWF weeklies are warm starting later next week until the end of the run in the middle of October.   The latest CFS run looks exactly the same.   Nothing but warm anomalies out west past the middle of October (to the end of the run)

 

Honestly... I sense some unhappy cold anomaly fans coming up here through most of October.   

 

Just a feeling.   

 

Nature will probably deliver 45 days of warmth to offset 10 days of a little cool weather.  That is not sarcasm or meant to be mean-spirited.