jaster220 Posted March 11, 2017 Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 SWMI - the lameness of all things synoptic continues. Some models hardly show anything while a couple are decent. I highly doubt GRR gives any headlines due to long duration Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2017 So is it 3 to 6 inch event from Sunday night to Monday evening, and then the lake kicks in for the Chicago area?Yup, I could see additional 3-6" from the lake. Let's see if the signal stays put. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Hope it happens for you guys by the lake....so hard for events like that to play out on this side of the lake. I remember 1 in the 25 years I lived over there. It was during a packer 49 wild card game around 95 I believe. A one degree change in wind direction and it's game over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 00z NAM came west. Amounts are being adjusted with the EC storm. More of an inland hit now instead of the coast. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 00z NAM came west. Amounts are being adjusted with the EC storm. More of an inland hit now instead of the coast.The nam at 60 hours on a coastal... Good luck 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wow, RPM paints 6-9" for N IL...8.5" for ORD thru 7pm Tuesday. Widespread 6-8" across all of N IL. It pivots just right and it looks like it doesn't weaken as much as it heads east. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Most of N & E IA do very well also. Couldn't tell what Wisco and MN looked like. NW IN had 6"+ as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 00z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031200/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 The last time I saw model runs on the GFS showing the lake plume reaching down towards Kankakee, IL it turned out to be a fun band... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031200/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_11.png Surface temps just outside of the convergence band in the single digits will fuel this thing if it goes to its full potential... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031200/gfs_T2m_ncus_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Total qpf...0.7 right near Mt. Geo's place...that could easily fluff up to 10"+ http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031200/078/qpf_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 00z GGEM...little more generous with 0.5" qpf... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017031200/gem_apcpn_ncus_14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 SEMI right now looking good for 4-7" snowfall. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 The nam at 60 hours on a coastal... Good luckThere is a sharp line between nothing to 12"+, to no snow, rain and or a blizzard. Track is very crucial. Expect changes in the forecast. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 00z NAM gives SMI near 8". Wow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 DMX concerned about first wave:Snow will spread across the area on Sunday afternoon andevening, persisting through the night before ending on Monday.Moderate to heavy accumulations are expected. Some uncertaintydoes remain with this storm. There will be an initial push ofmoderate to even heavy snow from mid afternoon to mid evening.Lighter snow will then persist through the remainder of the night.Should snow amounts with the initial surge be lighter thanexpected, snow amounts would be lighter than current forecasts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 00z RGEM...thru 6:00pm Monday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017031200/rgem_apcpn_ncus_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017031200/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 How does euro looks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Bag full of crap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Last nights GEM really likes the lehs potential in MKE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 06z NAM... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017031206/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png 06z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031206/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 RPM model really develops the lake plume Tuesday morning and wobbles back and forth thru Tuesday night as it swings into NW IN Wed. Targets Lake/Cook/Dupage counties. Local met is forecasting additional 1-5" from Lake Effect. Makes sense if the intense lake plume develops. Saying isolated spots may hit 10". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 06z NAM-4km... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017031206/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_20.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017031206/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 06z NAM 3km...a little higher resolution showing a lake band pounding MKE just around 6:00am Monday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_31.png Individual lake bands begin hitting NE IL around 6:00mpm Monday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_41.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_50.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_56.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031206/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_57.png Tuesday morning rush hour will be interesting in Chicago...a blip of 1.00"qpf over in E Cook near downtown Chicago...this is very difficult to pin down but suggesting a very intense band. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031206/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z nam coming in south/drier http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017031212/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Repeat of the 10th/11th "storm"? Seems like the trend has been drier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Reports of Heavy Snow falling in the blossoming shield of snow near Aberdeen, SD... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 @ IndianaJohn and posters in Lake/Porter county, looks like the lake plume pounds your area around 10:00pm Tuesday. It pushes very far inland according to the RPM. This model handles lake snows and synoptic systems very well inside 48 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z NAM 3km looking good for LES up in MKE area and Chicago... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031212/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_28.png The band up near MKE may push very far inland... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031212/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_30.png Monday night... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031212/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_36.png This higher-rez model is really puking snow in SE WI near Racine/Kenosha Tuesday morning...McHenry county may be in the action Tuesday morning... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031212/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_18.png I've been thinking, if the models continue to show this trend tomorrow, local MKK/LOT offices may issue some sort of Lake Effect advisory/warning for lakeside counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 LOT's take on the LES potential and possible headlines: Several important pieces of the puzzle are comingtogether to support our first organized lake effect snow event ofthe season. This process will allow some very cold air to returnto the region, and will create steep low level lapse rates due tothe relatively "warm" lake. 850 Temp to lake surface temperaturedifferences are about 15 to 18 C, which is pretty decent. Thesesteep lapse rates appear to extend over a deep moist low levellayer. Lake induced CAPE values reach in excess of 500 J/KG andequilibrium levels up to 10000 ft or so are also stronglyindicative of the potential for effective snow producers. With thestrong high to our northwest and a nor`easter low, this is afavorable synoptic setup for our area for the development of lakeeffect snow into Illinois and for the possibility of a convergentband.The complicating factor is that these situations are highlycontigent on the development of a stronger single band for thehigher impacts, and this is highly contigent not only on thedevelopment of a low level convergent axis, but how long that axislingers in one area. The GFS/GEM depict a strong convergent axispointed into northeast Illinois for an extended period of time.If this were to occur in conjunction with the increasinglyfavorable thermodynamic environment, some heavy snow showers wouldbe expected. The EC does too but is more transient. Whatdecreases confidence is that the NAM is more progressive with thisconvergent axis and does not linger it as long, but has severaltransient periods of synoptic/lake enhancement Monday night andagain Tuesday afternoon in Illinois, but has the convergent axisfocused a bit farther east more into southern Cook countyeastward into Indiana. The 6z NAM is not that impressive either.Confidence and Headlines: We feel confident there will be lakeeffect snows regardless of how long they last, but certainlyimpacts hazard decisions. These situations are challenging, evenat a shorter distance, but a signal is there for a potentiallysignificant event if things come together. The lake effect willalso shift into Northwest Indiana where conditions remainfavorable for at least occasional snow showers through the dayWednesday, possibly significant as well. It is possible we willneed to handle this event with a separate headline. We do taperthe advisory towards Livingston county the earliest once ratesease and temperatures become marginal, hold onto areas away fromthe core Chicago metro through the day, with the highest impactson the earlier side. Finally, we have not changed the end time ofthe lake adjacent counties yet (late Monday evening) as this willbe the time synoptic snows ease in Indiana, while lake effectprocesses begin to ramp up in WI and NE IL. Did not have highenough confidence to do a lake effect snow/winter storm watch forlake effect snow in NE IL just yet, though it is conceivable onecould be issued as we get closer. And for Indiana, it as mentionedearlier significant snows could fall there from lake effect butthe time window is more Tuesday into Wednesday. It is alsopossible that the advisory could be extended for a transient butpotent band of snow (note: Milwaukee has their advisory for thewhole event to cover both the synoptic and lake effect). We havechosen to not run out a long drawn out advisory at this point asthere could be a break, and due to the higher impact potential ofround two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Tom is nam an outlier croz is not showing as much as other models are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Tom is nam an outlier croz is not showing as much as other models areSeems like it...lets see the rest of the 12z suite...I like paying attn to the higher rez models at this stage... 06z RGEM...thru 1:00am Tuesday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017031206/rgem_apcpn_ncus_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 The 00z WRF had a broad band of heavy snow from S MN/N IA/S WI into N IL... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2017031200/wrf-nmm_apcpn_ncus_48.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Still snowing in MKE, Kenosha, and Racine.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Still snowing in MKE, Kenosha, and Racine..qpf_acc.us_mw (1).pngD**n, that looks good! Looks very similar to the high rez NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 The Lake Effect part of this system may be the "highlight" of the season for MKE/ORD locations...sadly, but I guess not if you enjoy the snow.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 12, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 Latest HRRR thru 3:00am tonight... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017031214/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_18.png Temps in the low 20's should boost those snow ratios up... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017031214/hrrr_T2m_ncus_19.png Those just to the north of the low where the best spin in the atmosphere will get the best synoptic snows... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017031214/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031212/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 LE doing work in MKE/Chicago after that: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031212/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031212/054/qpf_012h.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 GEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017031212/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 12, 2017 Report Share Posted March 12, 2017 I am thinking an advisory should be issued for my area this afternoon. I am forecasted for 3-6"+. Surprised they have not issued anything yet. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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