3/13 - 3/14 Midwest/Lakes Snow System

[Tom]

Tom how is LE looking for Chicago?

This is when an intense lake plume has the potential to from when 528 thickness swings through Tuesday morning...

 

Monday at midnight...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031012/gfs_z500_vort_ncus_16.png

 

6:00am Tuesday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031012/gfs_z500_vort_ncus_17.png

 

 

12:00pm Tuesday...these maps will change but gives us an idea of how it may unfold...this would produce some great convergence...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031012/gfs_z500_vort_ncus_18.png

[Tom]

12z GFS...looking better for IA/MN/WI/IL/IN/MI posters...

[Tom]

12z GFS close up...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031012/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Comparison from 00z vs 12z...the gap of snow between IA & OH keeps shrinking and is likely due to an earlier phase.

 

00z last night...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031000/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

12z today...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031012/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

The stronger the northern piece can hold, the better chance it can pull the coastal energy inland and ultimately throwing back more moisture as trough goes neg tilt.  Trend has been for a stronger northern piece so lets see what the Euro says.

[james1976]

Sign me up!

Id be getting close to avg season snowfall if that verified.

[gosaints]

GGEM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017031012/gem_asnow_ncus_20.png

[james1976]

Comparison from 00z vs 12z...the gap of snow between IA & OH keeps shrinking and is likely due to an earlier phase.

 

00z last night...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031000/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

12z today...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031012/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

The stronger the northern piece can hold, the better chance it can pull the coastal energy inland and ultimately throwing back more moisture as trough goes neg tilt. Trend has been for a stronger northern piece so lets see what the Euro says.

Would that necessarily mean a more N track?

[St Paul Storm]

I took a quick look at the soundings for MSP. Not sure I buy those Kuchera totals on the GFS. The DGZ looks a little iffy.

[Tom]

Would that necessarily mean a more N track?

Not necessarily, will prob see small shifts but nothing drastic.  Too much HP to the north to cause any significant shifts north and the models are pretty much locked on track through the Midwest/Lakes.

[Money]

12z ukie with 1012 L in southern IA at 72

[Tom]

Sign me up!

Id be getting close to avg season snowfall if that verified.

We have a lot more to go than you do to get towards average.  Sitting at 18.2" for the season.  Would need to about double that.

[jaster220]

Liking the (model) trends.overnight. Still first half of March, so I'd buy a ticket to ride this puppy...dragging me back in with an actual plow-worthy synoptic system. I was beyond done with this winter about a month ago tbh.

[Madtown]

Not buying into anything till Sat pm. Looks like a nuisance event at best here

[BrianJK]

Not buying into anything till Sat pm. Looks like a nuisance event at best here

 

Hopefully the High either shifts or weakens so this thing can push north for you.  I don't want anything more than flurries around these parts.  If we can dodge this one, there's a decent chance to extend the snowless record to next year.

[gimmesnow]

Thanks for the answers to my questions. I am learning a lot from these forums, I appreciate it.

[jaster220]

Not buying into anything till Sat pm. Looks like a nuisance event at best here

 

Models showing 6+ for mby. Cutting that to 4" for reality still means the first "non-nuisance" snowfall since Jan 31st.  IF it wants to dish, I'll shovel it, then move onto SPRING!

[Niko]

Niko is looking better for decent snowfall...the key will be how quick it phases and pulls west.

Currently looking @6"+. Lets see how much inland the low tracks. If its an Appalachian runner, then, it will turn out to be a nice , plowable snowfall.

[Niko]

big cities on the coast could easily still see a rainer

I agree, they could go from accumulating snow to heavy rain and wind. All depends on the track.

[james1976]

We have a lot more to go than you do to get towards average. Sitting at 18.2" for the season. Would need to about double that.

Im at 22-23. Avg is 35. Hoping to cut the deficit in half.

[Tom]

12z GEFS showing some support for a stronger northern wave...few more ensemble members showing up in OH...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017031012/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_16.png

 

 

 

12z GEFS vs 00z today showing a stronger low in S IL vs a stronger low near the Carolinas...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017031012/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_14.png

 

vs...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017031000/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_16.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017031012/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19.png

[Money]

Euro crushes southern wi 7-10

[Tom]

Euro crushes southern wi 7-10

How does it look overall???  Can you post a map?

[gosaints]

How does it look overall???  Can you post a map?

Ill try to..

[Money]

On my phone but 4-5 for Chicago

[Tom]

On my phone but 4-5 for Chicago

Not bad, getting better every day...yesterday it was showing 3-4"...I'm assuming Lehs is showing up farther north across MKE??

[gosaints]

Not bad, getting better every day...yesterday it was showing 3-4"...I'm assuming Lehs is showing up farther north across MKE??

Is it possible to post images that are not links??

[Tom]

Is it possible to post images that are not links??

Yes, you have to save it on your phone or comp and use the "more reply options" and upload it.  Or you can copy and paste it but if you use WxBell it wont work unless you save it then upload.

[gosaints]

[gosaints]

Really high kuchera ratios pushing 20:1 around here

[Tom]

Wow, that is a lot of snow at 10:1 ratios

[Tom]

Never mind, thought that map was 10:1...

[gosaints]

Never mind, thought that map was 10:1...

Lol I wish

[Tom]

So for 2nd day in a row, all models are showing a healthier system. Should get interesting.

[Money]

Really high kuchera ratios pushing 20:1 around here

Wouldn't go that high but we should have decent ratios for sure

[gosaints]

Wouldn't go that high but we should have decent ratios for sure

definelty could 

[Tom]

Did the Euro expand the snow on th EC inland?

[Hawkeye]

God, this stupid winter needs to die already.  I finally begin to get excited about a nice snow to end the dreadful snow season, then the euro yanks it away again.  I can't believe the dang low may go right over us.  EVERY low this winter has gone over us.

[james1976]

Did Euro stay same track as 0z?

[WBadgersW]

Nice to see rising totals instead of dropping. If its cold let it snow.

[Tom]

God, this stupid winter needs to die already. I finally begin to get excited about a nice snow to end the dreadful snow season, then the euro yanks it away again. I can't believe the dang low may go right over us. EVERY low this winter has gone over us.

Let's see what the EPS shows today before getting to upset about this run.