March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[tim the weatherman]

another thing the AVERAGE highs this time of the year is in the 40's

[tim the weatherman]

just found out by the weather centre that we could be looking at our first major severe weather outbreak by mid march.

[NEJeremy]

I have really never followed the LRC but I am starting to believe it.  Living in Nebraska we usually have a large March blizzard or large snowstorm.  Some of our biggest storms in history happen in March.  We keep waiting for a storm to bring us the moisture that is do desperately needed for agriculture.  We are fortunate to have the Ogallala aquifer below which allows irrigation for some of the best soil on the planet.  However, farmers must pay for this water that is extremely expensive.  I am not a farmer but our community relies on farmers to buy products to keep the farm economy alive.  This pattern is so frustrating as storm after storm goes around Nebraska.  This is why Nebraskans on this board appear to be whining but actually are desperately wanting moisture.  Thanks for letting me vent.

 

I'm whining because I just want a snowstorm.  Seriously though, I've said this before this dry winter hasn't been that detrimental to our drought situation. Look at the drought monitor in November and right now, and it hasn't really changed at all. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/MapArchive.aspx Go to Nebraska and change the date and go to categorical stats to see the diff pcts.

 

This weeks drought monitor shows 37.8% in D0, 25.44% D1, 21.88% D2, and 4.62% D3

Nov 5th showed 38.65% D0, 20.46% D1, 22.63% D2, and 4.76% D3

 

We average under 3" of precip the entire winter, so we may be 2" below normal for the entire winter. Moisture runs off the frozen ground, sun angle is low, etc. As much as the low snowfall has sucked, it's not wiping out the soil moisture. Now if things don't change soon for the spring...

[Geos]

i am thinking that after next week than the temps will be back to normal that we will be out of this below normal temps.

 

I wouldn't go quite that far, but maybe -5° - -8°.

 

There should be several near average days.

[Geos]

I'm whining because I just want a snowstorm.  Seriously though, I've said this before this dry winter hasn't been that detrimental to our drought situation. Look at the drought monitor in November and right now, and it hasn't really changed at all. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/MapArchive.aspx Go to Nebraska and change the date and go to categorical stats to see the diff pcts.

 

This weeks drought monitor shows 37.8% in D0, 25.44% D1, 21.88% D2, and 4.62% D3

Nov 5th showed 38.65% D0, 20.46% D1, 22.63% D2, and 4.76% D3

 

We average under 3" of precip the entire winter, so we may be 2" below normal for the entire winter. Moisture runs off the frozen ground, sun angle is low, etc. As much as the low snowfall has sucked, it's not wiping out the soil moisture. Now if things don't change soon for the spring...

 

Well the GFS gives you some snow on Friday!

 

[tim the weatherman]

I think they will do better this time around. That pattern would lead to a broad eastern ridge with most of the cold in the west and far northern Plains. 

 

If the MJO continues to hang around where it is, I think that will further solidify that forecast.

 

EURO really cuts back on our snow cover and leaves less than 4" left by next Tuesday.

speaking about the mjo that the weather centre that phase 2 of the mjo will be stronger by mid month that is causing a major severe outbreak by mid month that we are currently headed into phase 2 of the mjo.

[Geos]

speaking about the mjo that the weather centre that phase 2 of the mjo will be stronger by mid month that is causing a major severe outbreak by mid month that we are currently headed into phase 2 of the mjo.

 

GFS at least showing it heading into 8.

 

[tim the weatherman]

I have really never followed the LRC but I am starting to believe it.  Living in Nebraska we usually have a large March blizzard or large snowstorm.  Some of our biggest storms in history happen in March.  We keep waiting for a storm to bring us the moisture that is do desperately needed for agriculture.  We are fortunate to have the Ogallala aquifer below which allows irrigation for some of the best soil on the planet.  However, farmers must pay for this water that is extremely expensive.  I am not a farmer but our community relies on farmers to buy products to keep the farm economy alive.  This pattern is so frustrating as storm after storm goes around Nebraska.  This is why Nebraskans on this board appear to be whining but actually are desperately wanting moisture.  Thanks for letting me vent.

i do agree centralneb weather that there is a local meteorlogist that said in an article that the lrc has been bad at forcasting the winter weather that does not make sense that i don't follow that i never heard of this that should never been invented.

[NEJeremy]

i do agree centralneb weather that there is a local meteorlogist that said in an article that the lrc has been bad at forcasting the winter weather that does not make sense that i don't follow that i never heard of this that should never been invented.

 

???? That is the longest sentence I have ever seen and I have no idea what you just said.

[tim the weatherman]

???? That is the longest sentence I have ever seen and I have no idea what you just said.

it's about the lezak recurring cycle i twas talking about because he said that we are not getting the warming until april that we are stuck in a cold pattern until then.

[tim the weatherman]

beyond the 18 of this month is when the winter pattern will finally break so that means that we will have warmer weather so the snow will start to melt.

[abhidupage]

beyond the 18 of this month is when the winter pattern will finally break so that means that we will have warmer weather so the snow will start to melt.

Wait, I thought it was the 16th as of last night? Why the 18th now

[Jaycee]

Never been sure how i felt about the LRC. Sometimes it pans out, but ive seen it fail many times out here in the Plains.

 

Want it to be April, and to have a moderate/high risk issued here. Anyone else agree tracking storms is almost better than tracking blizzards?? Just seeing a supercell heading due towards you really gets your adrenaline going.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/blogimages11/blogimages11/Screen_Shot_2014-03-04_at_7.20.13_PM.png

[NEJeremy]

Wait, I thought it was the 16th as of last night? Why the 18th now

I think he meant the 16th for us in Nebraska and then probably the 17th for people in Iowa and then the 18th for Illinois. It's going to take like 2 days longer for people in Illinois since they have more snow. Am I right 24 weather guy?

[tim the weatherman]

Wait, I thought it was the 16th as of last night? Why the 18th now

i ment the 16.

[Money]

i ment the 16.

 

 May I ask what happened to the 3  18-24 inch snowstorms you predicted for Chicago?

[IowaHawkeyes]

That would be nice to have warm temp the 16th since that is my birthday

[tim the weatherman]

 May I ask what happened to the 3  18-24 inch snowstorms you predicted for Chicago?

i did but that was winter now spring is approaching.

[Money]

What does that have to do with anything? You predicted a 12+ inches a day before a storm hit where the models showed like an inch or two at best. 

[East Dubzz]

I always thought a +NAO meant less blocking and milder weather in the East U.S. and -NAO brought colder weather?

[tim the weatherman]

What does that have to do with anything? You predicted a 12+ inches a day before a storm hit where the models showed like an inch or two at best. 

i don't know was i thinking at the time.

[tim the weatherman]

I always thought a +NAO meant less blocking and milder weather in the East U.S. and -NAO brought colder weather?

nao was in a neutral to positive state while the pna was in a positive state too.

[Money]

GGEM has a lot of snow in the long range. Cold as well. Doesn't get above freezing for most of the run 

[tim the weatherman]

GGEM has a lot of snow in the long range. Cold as well. Doesn't get above freezing for most of the run 

that is the canadian model and it's always wrong.

[Geos]

The snow will start melting once it gets into the mid 20s and the sun comes out!

I'm beginning to think the flip is next Monday.

 

The fresh snow that fell around here will likely be gone by Sunday.

[Money]

that is the canadian model and it's always wrong.

 

False. It's actually been one of the better models this year.

[tim the weatherman]

The snow will start melting once it gets into the mid 20s and the sun comes out!

that is true but we need daytime temp's in the 50's while nighttime temp's in the 30's.

[tim the weatherman]

The snow will start melting once it gets into the mid 20s and the sun comes out!

I'm beginning to think the flip is next Monday.

 

The fresh snow that fell around here will likely be gone by Sunday.

i think so too geos.

[Geos]

False. It's actually been one of the better models this year.

 

It's been horrible with temperatures though. Been ok with precipitation patterns though.

 

I see less and less ways it can stay cold in the medium to long range without blocking, a ridge over Alaska, or a -AO.

[East Dubzz]

It's been horrible with temperatures though. Been ok with precipitation patterns though.

Agreed.

 

Geos, can you post that graphic that shows what each phase of the MJO is associated with temperature wise?

[Money]

Geos, like i said before, no offense but you've been calling for warm weather since like early Feb. and you've been wrong every time. I can see temps in the 20's and 30's but no way do I see constant temps in the 40's or 50s until the end of the month. The next 2-3 weeks look prime for snow events yet.

[Geos]

Geos, like i said before, no offense but you've been calling for warm weather since like early Feb. and you've been wrong every time. I can see temps in the 20's and 30's but no way do I see constant temps in the 40's or 50s until the end of the month. The next 2-3 weeks look prime for snow events yet.

 

I'm not saying constant warmth. I'm just saying more seasonable weather and a gradual disappearance of the snow pack. It's March now... a whole different ball game.

 

I was with JB, thinking things would flip like a switch sometime in February, but that didn't happen obviously. If you remember his original forecast was for a snowy and moderately cold for February in this region. Instead it was the coldest month and somewhat dry.

[midwest buildit]

this one ?

 

http://i.imgur.com/2JLdnD7.png

[East Dubzz]

Yes, thank you! I had it saved on my computer but had to get the whole thing wiped and lost it.

[tim the weatherman]

I'm not saying constant warmth. I'm just saying more seasonable weather and a gradual disappearance of the snow pack. It's March now... a whole different ball game.

 

I was with JB, thinking things would flip like a switch sometime in February, but that didn't happen obviously. If you remember his original forecast was for a snowy and moderately cold for February in this region. Instead it was the coldest month and somewhat dry.

i agree geos that the only reason that the switch wasn't throwing is that we have a stubbron polar vortex in eastren canada that sat over hudson and james bay's.

[Money]

I'm not saying constant warmth. I'm just saying more seasonable weather and a gradual disappearance of the snow pack. It's March now... a whole different ball game.

 

I was with JB, thinking things would flip like a switch sometime in February, but that didn't happen obviously. If you remember his original forecast was for a snowy and moderately cold for February in this region. Instead it was the coldest month and somewhat dry.

 

Yes, it's March. I think we have about 2-3 weeks of winter left, and then we'll see gradual temps increase as we head towards April and opening day. Doesn't mean we won't get snow events, and usually March is a wild ride between snow/rain and warmer/cooler weather. We'll see what happens.

[tim the weatherman]

i am thinking that we have 2 weeks of winter left than we will have warmer temps.

[midwest buildit]

i am thinking that we have 2 weeks of winter left than we will have warmer temps.

you cant just say warmer temps, that's obvious.   right now a 10* warmer temp would still be close to 10* below normal.. so yes it would be warmer but still below normal.

[Money]

The average high temps by this weekend I am pretty sure is like 45 degrees or so. 

 

So, even 35 degree temps would be "below normal"