tim the weatherman Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 another thing the AVERAGE highs this time of the year is in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 just found out by the weather centre that we could be looking at our first major severe weather outbreak by mid march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 I have really never followed the LRC but I am starting to believe it. Living in Nebraska we usually have a large March blizzard or large snowstorm. Some of our biggest storms in history happen in March. We keep waiting for a storm to bring us the moisture that is do desperately needed for agriculture. We are fortunate to have the Ogallala aquifer below which allows irrigation for some of the best soil on the planet. However, farmers must pay for this water that is extremely expensive. I am not a farmer but our community relies on farmers to buy products to keep the farm economy alive. This pattern is so frustrating as storm after storm goes around Nebraska. This is why Nebraskans on this board appear to be whining but actually are desperately wanting moisture. Thanks for letting me vent. I'm whining because I just want a snowstorm. Seriously though, I've said this before this dry winter hasn't been that detrimental to our drought situation. Look at the drought monitor in November and right now, and it hasn't really changed at all. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/MapArchive.aspx Go to Nebraska and change the date and go to categorical stats to see the diff pcts. This weeks drought monitor shows 37.8% in D0, 25.44% D1, 21.88% D2, and 4.62% D3Nov 5th showed 38.65% D0, 20.46% D1, 22.63% D2, and 4.76% D3 We average under 3" of precip the entire winter, so we may be 2" below normal for the entire winter. Moisture runs off the frozen ground, sun angle is low, etc. As much as the low snowfall has sucked, it's not wiping out the soil moisture. Now if things don't change soon for the spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 i am thinking that after next week than the temps will be back to normal that we will be out of this below normal temps. I wouldn't go quite that far, but maybe -5° - -8°. There should be several near average days. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm whining because I just want a snowstorm. Seriously though, I've said this before this dry winter hasn't been that detrimental to our drought situation. Look at the drought monitor in November and right now, and it hasn't really changed at all. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/MapArchive.aspx Go to Nebraska and change the date and go to categorical stats to see the diff pcts. This weeks drought monitor shows 37.8% in D0, 25.44% D1, 21.88% D2, and 4.62% D3Nov 5th showed 38.65% D0, 20.46% D1, 22.63% D2, and 4.76% D3 We average under 3" of precip the entire winter, so we may be 2" below normal for the entire winter. Moisture runs off the frozen ground, sun angle is low, etc. As much as the low snowfall has sucked, it's not wiping out the soil moisture. Now if things don't change soon for the spring... Well the GFS gives you some snow on Friday! Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 I think they will do better this time around. That pattern would lead to a broad eastern ridge with most of the cold in the west and far northern Plains. If the MJO continues to hang around where it is, I think that will further solidify that forecast. EURO really cuts back on our snow cover and leaves less than 4" left by next Tuesday.speaking about the mjo that the weather centre that phase 2 of the mjo will be stronger by mid month that is causing a major severe outbreak by mid month that we are currently headed into phase 2 of the mjo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 speaking about the mjo that the weather centre that phase 2 of the mjo will be stronger by mid month that is causing a major severe outbreak by mid month that we are currently headed into phase 2 of the mjo. GFS at least showing it heading into 8. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 I have really never followed the LRC but I am starting to believe it. Living in Nebraska we usually have a large March blizzard or large snowstorm. Some of our biggest storms in history happen in March. We keep waiting for a storm to bring us the moisture that is do desperately needed for agriculture. We are fortunate to have the Ogallala aquifer below which allows irrigation for some of the best soil on the planet. However, farmers must pay for this water that is extremely expensive. I am not a farmer but our community relies on farmers to buy products to keep the farm economy alive. This pattern is so frustrating as storm after storm goes around Nebraska. This is why Nebraskans on this board appear to be whining but actually are desperately wanting moisture. Thanks for letting me vent.i do agree centralneb weather that there is a local meteorlogist that said in an article that the lrc has been bad at forcasting the winter weather that does not make sense that i don't follow that i never heard of this that should never been invented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 i do agree centralneb weather that there is a local meteorlogist that said in an article that the lrc has been bad at forcasting the winter weather that does not make sense that i don't follow that i never heard of this that should never been invented. ???? That is the longest sentence I have ever seen and I have no idea what you just said. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 ???? That is the longest sentence I have ever seen and I have no idea what you just said.it's about the lezak recurring cycle i twas talking about because he said that we are not getting the warming until april that we are stuck in a cold pattern until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 beyond the 18 of this month is when the winter pattern will finally break so that means that we will have warmer weather so the snow will start to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 beyond the 18 of this month is when the winter pattern will finally break so that means that we will have warmer weather so the snow will start to melt.Wait, I thought it was the 16th as of last night? Why the 18th now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Never been sure how i felt about the LRC. Sometimes it pans out, but ive seen it fail many times out here in the Plains. Want it to be April, and to have a moderate/high risk issued here. Anyone else agree tracking storms is almost better than tracking blizzards?? Just seeing a supercell heading due towards you really gets your adrenaline going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/blogimages11/blogimages11/Screen_Shot_2014-03-04_at_7.20.13_PM.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Wait, I thought it was the 16th as of last night? Why the 18th nowI think he meant the 16th for us in Nebraska and then probably the 17th for people in Iowa and then the 18th for Illinois. It's going to take like 2 days longer for people in Illinois since they have more snow. Am I right 24 weather guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Wait, I thought it was the 16th as of last night? Why the 18th nowi ment the 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 i ment the 16. May I ask what happened to the 3 18-24 inch snowstorms you predicted for Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHawkeyes Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 That would be nice to have warm temp the 16th since that is my birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 May I ask what happened to the 3 18-24 inch snowstorms you predicted for Chicago?i did but that was winter now spring is approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 What does that have to do with anything? You predicted a 12+ inches a day before a storm hit where the models showed like an inch or two at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 I always thought a +NAO meant less blocking and milder weather in the East U.S. and -NAO brought colder weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 What does that have to do with anything? You predicted a 12+ inches a day before a storm hit where the models showed like an inch or two at best. i don't know was i thinking at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 I always thought a +NAO meant less blocking and milder weather in the East U.S. and -NAO brought colder weather?nao was in a neutral to positive state while the pna was in a positive state too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 GGEM has a lot of snow in the long range. Cold as well. Doesn't get above freezing for most of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 GGEM has a lot of snow in the long range. Cold as well. Doesn't get above freezing for most of the run that is the canadian model and it's always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 The snow will start melting once it gets into the mid 20s and the sun comes out!I'm beginning to think the flip is next Monday. The fresh snow that fell around here will likely be gone by Sunday. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 that is the canadian model and it's always wrong. False. It's actually been one of the better models this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 The snow will start melting once it gets into the mid 20s and the sun comes out!that is true but we need daytime temp's in the 50's while nighttime temp's in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 The snow will start melting once it gets into the mid 20s and the sun comes out!I'm beginning to think the flip is next Monday. The fresh snow that fell around here will likely be gone by Sunday.i think so too geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 False. It's actually been one of the better models this year. It's been horrible with temperatures though. Been ok with precipitation patterns though. I see less and less ways it can stay cold in the medium to long range without blocking, a ridge over Alaska, or a -AO. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 It's been horrible with temperatures though. Been ok with precipitation patterns though.Agreed. Geos, can you post that graphic that shows what each phase of the MJO is associated with temperature wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Geos, like i said before, no offense but you've been calling for warm weather since like early Feb. and you've been wrong every time. I can see temps in the 20's and 30's but no way do I see constant temps in the 40's or 50s until the end of the month. The next 2-3 weeks look prime for snow events yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Geos, like i said before, no offense but you've been calling for warm weather since like early Feb. and you've been wrong every time. I can see temps in the 20's and 30's but no way do I see constant temps in the 40's or 50s until the end of the month. The next 2-3 weeks look prime for snow events yet. I'm not saying constant warmth. I'm just saying more seasonable weather and a gradual disappearance of the snow pack. It's March now... a whole different ball game. I was with JB, thinking things would flip like a switch sometime in February, but that didn't happen obviously. If you remember his original forecast was for a snowy and moderately cold for February in this region. Instead it was the coldest month and somewhat dry. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 this one ? http://i.imgur.com/2JLdnD7.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yes, thank you! I had it saved on my computer but had to get the whole thing wiped and lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm not saying constant warmth. I'm just saying more seasonable weather and a gradual disappearance of the snow pack. It's March now... a whole different ball game. I was with JB, thinking things would flip like a switch sometime in February, but that didn't happen obviously. If you remember his original forecast was for a snowy and moderately cold for February in this region. Instead it was the coldest month and somewhat dry.i agree geos that the only reason that the switch wasn't throwing is that we have a stubbron polar vortex in eastren canada that sat over hudson and james bay's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm not saying constant warmth. I'm just saying more seasonable weather and a gradual disappearance of the snow pack. It's March now... a whole different ball game. I was with JB, thinking things would flip like a switch sometime in February, but that didn't happen obviously. If you remember his original forecast was for a snowy and moderately cold for February in this region. Instead it was the coldest month and somewhat dry. Yes, it's March. I think we have about 2-3 weeks of winter left, and then we'll see gradual temps increase as we head towards April and opening day. Doesn't mean we won't get snow events, and usually March is a wild ride between snow/rain and warmer/cooler weather. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 i am thinking that we have 2 weeks of winter left than we will have warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 i am thinking that we have 2 weeks of winter left than we will have warmer temps.you cant just say warmer temps, that's obvious. right now a 10* warmer temp would still be close to 10* below normal.. so yes it would be warmer but still below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 5, 2014 Report Share Posted March 5, 2014 The average high temps by this weekend I am pretty sure is like 45 degrees or so. So, even 35 degree temps would be "below normal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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