California Weather/ Climate

[Alan]

First sub 50 high since May, 49F after a low of 42F - felt great! A couple quick showers during the day and remaining foggy for the 5th or 6th day in a row.

[Guest happ]

I haven't checked local weather network for totals but a downpour occurred east of downtown LA yesterday evening.  Boyle Heights is due south by maybe 6 miles, received so much rain all at once that street flooding occurred.  I was looking forward to see how much I received only to discover that the ground was damp but nothing measurable.  Last week's flooding in Mojave/ Lake Elizabeth produced 1.81 in 30 minutes.

 

Flash flood in Death Valley yesterday

LAT

"The park has received 1.23 inches of rain this October, exceeding the average rainfall of 0.07 inches for the month, according to the National Weather Service. The annual rainfall average in the park is 2.36 inches, the weather service said.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-flash-floods-death-valley-park-20151019-story.html

[Guest happ]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-olaf-forms-in-e/53032965

 

Hurricane Olaf energy could hit California next week.

 

L: 63

 

Yesterday: 81/ 60

[Guest happ]

I've been watching that on the ECMWF.  It's struggling run to run.  About every third run brings it to the west coast.

 

Who knows where the remnants of Olaf come ashore but California is hoping some of the precipitation comes our way.  It's great in October to be discussing rain possibilities. 

 

81/ 65

 

Wednesday: 84 / 63

[Guest happ]

Ocean temps are in the mid to upper 80's along the Mexican coast where Hurricane Patricia is becoming the strongest Pacific cyclone on record.

 

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-patricia-mexico-coast

[Dan the Weatherman]

It was unbelievable how fast and how much Patricia strengthened. The conditions must have been ultra-favorable in addition to the almost bath-like warm SSTs.

[Guest happ]

It was unbelievable how fast and how much Patricia strengthened. The conditions must have been ultra-favorable in addition to the almost bath-like warm SSTs.

 

Patricia has weakened; I think sustained winds were under 200mph when she made landfall. 

 

Pleasant evening w/ dry breeze coming out of the northeast.  Still 75.  Looks like a little heat this weekend.

 

86/ 60

[Dan the Weatherman]

Patricia has weakened; I think sustained winds were under 200mph when she made landfall. 

 

Pleasant evening w/ dry breeze coming out of the northeast.  Still 75.  Looks like a little heat this weekend.

 

86/ 60

 

I believe you are right that sustained winds were under 200 mph when Patricia made landfall as they were somewhere around 190 mph. They reached 200-205 mph over open water prior to landfall.

 

EDIT: According to AccuWeather.com, Patricia made landfall with 165 mph sustained winds, not the 190 mph I mentioned above. That is still a major Cat 5 hurricane and there is going to be some catastrophic damage in the regions that bear the brunt of the storm. Even parts of south and east Texas will likely see major flooding from the remnant moisture in addition to what they are getting right now.

[Guest happ]

I believe you are right that sustained winds were under 200 mph when Patricia made landfall as they were somewhere around 190 mph. They reached 200-205 mph over open water prior to landfall.

 

EDIT: According to AccuWeather.com, Patricia made landfall with 165 mph sustained winds, not the 190 mph I mentioned above. That is still a major Cat 5 hurricane and there is going to be some catastrophic damage in the regions that bear the brunt of the storm. Even parts of south and east Texas will likely see major flooding from the remnant moisture in addition to what they are getting right now.

 

Interesting how the hurricane's intensity rose so quickly and then dropped to lower categories as quickly once it came ashore.

 

90 / 63

[Guest happ]

At least it's a dry heat -- with the low humidity, the heat index is a mere 116.

 

And makes the point how low dew points feel compared to what it has been for so long: humid.  It was 90° but felt fine in shade/ open house; warm dry wind; no need for A/C. 

 

74.2F

42° dew temp

[Guest happ]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=sat_4km&list=VIS4.GIF.3.jpg,VIS4.GIF.4.jpg,VIS4.GIF.5.jpg,VIS4.GIF.6.jpg,VIS4.GIF.7.jpg,VIS4.GIF.8.jpg

 

Shield cloud from Olaf overhead; hoping for moisture later in the week.

 

L: 70

[Dan the Weatherman]

The mid-high cloud deck helped to keep temperatures in check today. It would have been quite warm to hot if it weren't cloudy.

 

Meanwhile, I am hoping for some action next week as far as rain goes. The first widespread Santa Ana event of the season is a possibility next weekend after the storm departs.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=87190

[Guest happ]

The mid-high cloud deck helped to keep temperatures in check today. It would have been quite warm to hot if it weren't cloudy.

 

Meanwhile, I am hoping for some action next week as far as rain goes. The first widespread Santa Ana event of the season is a possibility next weekend after the storm departs.

 

I must say that I am not looking forward to a 'santa ana' wind event.  First off, we have not had any really bad fires in SoCal during and since summer unlike northern California.  With the rain we've had, I hope we can dodge autumn fires that offshore winds produce.  Secondly, I am sick of hot weather.  I think most people here are done with summer by the end of August or September.  Heat in October kind of pushes us over the edge even if it is basically low humidity.  A check of data across the West Coast shows that temps have been consistently above normal for several months.  I want to have a cool morning where a blanket is finally necessary overnight; where we can turn off air conditioning for good [until late Spring] and not have to water the garden each week.  I am ready for a change in the seasons.  November is the start of the cool/wet season which we need badly.

 

90/ 63  

[Alan]

Nothing like norcals fire season but we did have early on (Early July?) the Lake fire near big bear / San Gorgonio that threatened 1100 homes and burned 35K and the small and short lived fire below the Cajon pass that jumped the 15 and burned 50+ cars alltogether and some homes/ranches. Blew up to 3k acres in a matter of hours and monsoon rains knocked it out the next day thankfully.

 

Otherwise a pretty quiet season and blessed for that indeed!

[Guest happ]

Nothing like norcals fire season but we did have early on (Early July?) the Lake fire near big bear / San Gorgonio that threatened 1100 homes and burned 35K and the small and short lived fire below the Cajon pass that jumped the 15 and burned 50+ cars alltogether and some homes/ranches. Blew up to 3k acres in a matter of hours and monsoon rains knocked it out the next day thankfully.

 

Otherwise a pretty quiet season and blessed for that indeed!

 

How could I forget those crazy scenes of motorists fleeing their cars?  There were plenty of opportunities for big fires this summer but heatwaves were always accompanied by thunderstorms/ monsoon/ tropical moisture.  I think it was Dolores that greatly help end the Cajon pass/ Rancho Cucamonga fire.  

 

L: 63

                 

 

 

[Alan]

I think it was - and the amount of summer rain was crazy, I'm at almost a foot!

 

Snows coming soon...anytime now....

[Guest happ]

I think it was - and the amount of summer rain was crazy, I'm at almost a foot!

 

Snows coming soon...anytime now....

 

Next week looks quite promising for cooler temps and perhaps rainfall/ snowfall.

 

83 / 63

[Dan the Weatherman]

I think it was - and the amount of summer rain was crazy, I'm at almost a foot!

 

Snows coming soon...anytime now....

 

This was the rainiest summer I can ever remember here in Orange!

[Dan the Weatherman]

All-time record warmest October (by a significant margin) seems virtually certain for much of SoCal, with most stations currently running between a +6 and +10 departure, and only a brief cool-down to near normal temperatures expected later this week.

 

Next week could bring the first negative temperature anomalies in quite some time.

 

I am ready for some cool weather for a change, that is, high temperatures below 80! It has been 80+ for what has seemed like an eternity.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=87307

[Guest happ]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=87307

 

Unfortunately very little precipitation from remnants of Olaf [generally under 0.05 in Bay Area] but much cooler temps will be a nice change next week.

 

L: 67

[Dan the Weatherman]

There is a chance for scattered showers Monday-Wednesday next week. Hopefully the rain is more widespread than is currently forecast, because my area doesn't usually fare well in scattered shower scenarios, or at least it hasn't in recent years.

[Guest happ]

NNW winds kicked in last night w/ some fairly strong gusts this morning; anemometer not hooked up yet but wind knocked over patio umbrella.   Warm & windy for a few days; rain looks iffy.

 

L: 68

 

Wednesday: 82 / 67 

[Dan the Weatherman]

NNW winds kicked in last night w/ some fairly strong gusts this morning; anemometer not hooked up yet but wind knocked over patio umbrella.   Warm & windy for a few days; rain looks iffy.

 

L: 68

 

Wednesday: 82 / 67 

 

There was no wind here in Orange last night, likely because this area doesn't seem to be affected very often by NW or NNW wind events. Los Angeles and surrounding areas and areas closer to the coast are affected more often by these type of wind events. However, the Santa Ana winds are forecast to come up tonight and last through tomorrow night, so I am sure there will be winds here tonight. It is starting to get a bit breezy as I type here, so the Santa Ana may already be starting to blow lightly.

[Guest happ]

Another round of strong winds last night.  Downed tree branches and arced power lines knocked out electricity; fire department even closed the road I live on for several hours.  Peak winds over 45MPH depending on one's location.  Look at wind in Malibu @ 10AM:

LEO CARRILLO    N/A     78  23  13 N20G51      N/A

 

Next week will be a great reprieve from an endless summer.   

 

Thursday: 84 / 68

L: 69

[Dan the Weatherman]

Another round of strong winds last night.  Downed tree branches and arced power lines knocked out electricity; fire department even closed the road I live on for several hours.  Peak winds over 45MPH depending on one's location.  Look at wind in Malibu @ 10AM:

LEO CARRILLO    N/A     78  23  13 N20G51      N/A

 

Next week will be a great reprieve from an endless summer.   

 

Thursday: 84 / 68

L: 69

 

For some reason it has taken longer this year to transition out of the prevailing summer pattern into a fall pattern. I don't think we got out of the summer pattern until about mid-October. The last couple of weeks have been a transition period, that usually occurs in the first half of October as opposed to the second half. This Santa Ana wind event I believe has finally led us into a true fall pattern and next week's storm appears to be typical of an early November event. 

 

It has surprised me that it has taken this long to get out of summer considering the strength of this El Nino, and the pattern to me has been a bit more ENSO neutral-ish it seems during the last couple of weeks.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=87453

[Guest happ]

For some reason it has taken longer this year to transition out of the prevailing summer pattern into a fall pattern. I don't think we got out of the summer pattern until about mid-October. The last couple of weeks have been a transition period, that usually occurs in the first half of October as opposed to the second half. This Santa Ana wind event I believe has finally led us into a true fall pattern and next week's storm appears to be typical of an early November event. 

 

It has surprised me that it has taken this long to get out of summer considering the strength of this El Nino, and the pattern to me has been a bit more ENSO neutral-ish it seems during the last couple of weeks.

 

It seems like unrelenting heat but last October was also hot.  Eujunga pointed to record departures.  The ocean water temp is still between 70-75° which has to be at least 5-10 degrees above normal.  Were past El Nino's cooler in October?  What about November?  The transition to the rainy season is always a great pleasure.

 

86 / 69

[Guest happ]

October 2015 Data

 

Aver Max: 85.6 / Norm: 81

Aver Min: 67.1 / Norm: 61

Mean: 76.3 / Norm: 71

 

HI/Lo Max: 102 / 70

Hi/Lo Min: 78 / 60

 

Rain: 0.47

Year: [jul-jun]: 3.07

Days: 4

[Dan the Weatherman]

I hope this year is an exception, too. I remember October 2003 being a rather warm month, especially during the second half, and that led to a really dry winter. However, that was an ENSO neutral season, as opposed to a strong El Nino.

[Guest happ]

Looking forward to much cooler temps and a chance of rainfall over the next several days. 

 

88 / 63

[Guest happ]

TRUCKEE        SNOW      32  32 100 CALM      29.85R VSB 1/4         
 

[Guest happ]

About half an hour of steady rain here and 0.07" in the rain gauge.  Epic!

 

Nothing spectacular but over 0.50 in San Bernardino mts.  Further north the Central Valley/ Monterey county recorded over an inch of rain. Sierra got it's first significant snowfall.  It's the temperatures that signal the end of summer.  Minimums in the 40's in the valleys and today could stay below 70°.  Have to go back 5 months to get these readings.

 

Monday

73 / 58

0.04

 

L: 53

[Dan the Weatherman]

It got gown to 51 degrees here in Orange this morning, making this morning the coldest of the season to date.

[Guest happ]

This rainyear even relatively weak fronts seem to trigger some rainfall, unlike last year.  People at work [Dominguez Hills] reported a thunderstorm late this afternoon but by the time I got out of a meeting, it was dry.  Must have been from this cell: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-beaches-closed-amid-lightning-rain-in-southern-california-20151103-story.html

 

69 / 53 [coldest mean since May 15]

[Dan the Weatherman]

There were really dark clouds to the north and northeast of here (Orange) late this afternoon and early evening. I thought it might rain here, but the clouds stayed just far enough away to not affect this area. I also thought that I may see some lightning, but despite watching the sky, I didn't see any.

[Alan]

A high of 36 today, currently 31, with a burst of heavy snow this evening dropped a quick 1" after last nights .70" rain.

 

Sounds like grauple on the roof right now.

[Guest happ]

Cold [for California] air mass in place; nice change.

 

69/ 50

[Guest happ]

Early-season storm makes small dent in California's drought outlook

 

An early-season storm that blanketed mountains from Northern California to the Central Valley with snow showed tangible results on the state’s historic drought, new federal data show.

 

Two areas of California considered to be in “exceptional” drought were upgraded to the “extreme” category —  the best either area has seen since at least the beginning of summer, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

 

A third area also was upgraded from extreme to severe, an even better improvement.

 

On Monday, a Pacific storm dumped between 11 and 30 inches of snow on mountains from Truckee to Mammoth. The new data show that a portion of Modoc County moved from exceptional drought to extreme.

 

That area had been in exceptional drought since early July. Farther south, in Mono and Inyo counties, two swaths of land that had been in exceptional drought since January and February were finally upgraded. One area bordering Nevada also moved into the severe category.

 

The U.S. Drought Monitor report, which comes out weekly and provides a glimpse of the nation’s drought status by region, called the rain and snow an “early bonus” for California’s water year, which runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30.  “But with 4 consecutive years of drought, this precipitation was just a start to moisten the soils for hopefully more (frozen preferred) precipitation this winter,” the report stated.

 

The past six months have been unusually wet in the eastern part of the state, the report said, also laying the groundwork for more gains on the state’s drought if there’s a large El Niño rain season as many experts predict.

“This past 6 months of wetness in a semi-arid environment is significant and a good start to … the water year,” it said.

 

There needs to be more snow in the Sierra Nevada, however, for experts to upgrade those areas. Much of the mountain range remains in the worst category. Less than two-tenths of a percent of California is not under some level of drought.

 

Snowpack is a key factor in California's water supply: In a normal year, melting Sierra Nevada snow provides the state with one-third of its water. Another third is pumped from aquifers, and the rest comes from rivers and reservoirs.

 

This spring, researchers found that the amount of water contained in the snow on April 1 was 5% of the average snow-water equivalent since monitoring began.

 

A new federal forecast released in October showed the upcoming El Niño could bring rains into Northern California, reaching more vital reservoirs than previously predicted. El Niño is a weather phenomenon that involves warming sea-surface temperatures and a change in wind that alters weather patterns in the atmosphere worldwide.

For breaking California news, follow @JosephSerna.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-snow-drought-monitor-report-20151106-story.html