California Weather/ Climate

[Guest happ]

For some reason it has taken longer this year to transition out of the prevailing summer pattern into a fall pattern. I don't think we got out of the summer pattern until about mid-October. The last couple of weeks have been a transition period, that usually occurs in the first half of October as opposed to the second half. This Santa Ana wind event I believe has finally led us into a true fall pattern and next week's storm appears to be typical of an early November event. 

 

It has surprised me that it has taken this long to get out of summer considering the strength of this El Nino, and the pattern to me has been a bit more ENSO neutral-ish it seems during the last couple of weeks.

 

I think that "transition" you identify has occurred.  A week ago it was 91° ending a record hot October and the 6th month w/ max average 80+ this year.

 

Troughs dig deeper bringing Gulf of Alaska systems into California; another chance of rain late tomorrow night. 

 

81 / 59 [unlike micro climates many minimums were below 50°; good chance of first minimum below 50 this week going back to April 8] 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I think that "transition" you identify has occurred.  A week ago it was 91° ending a record hot October and the 6th month w/ max average 80+ this year.

 

Troughs dig deeper bringing Gulf of Alaska systems into California; another chance of rain late tomorrow night. 

 

81 / 59 [unlike micro climates many minimums were below 50°; good chance of first minimum below 50 this week going back to April 8] 

 

The transition has definitely occurred, as we are in a true fall pattern now with alternating Santa Ana wind events with low pressure systems from the north. The nights have been much colder and the air much less humid. It has reached as low as the upper 40's a couple of nights this past week here in Orange, although the winds have kept temperatures higher the last couple of nights.

[Guest happ]

The front appears to be in Central California this evening with rain currently falling over Monterey Bay over to Modesto and up into the Sacramento valley; hopefully moisture will reach SoCal by morning.

 

78 / 58

[Guest happ]

A fair amount of rainfall in northern/ central California with snowfall as low as 3000' in places.  The Sierra are getting more snow than what was observed last winter; a very encouraging sign.  Front seemed to wash out over SoCal with storm track going into Nevada instead of Arizona;  there were some rain reports in places in San Diego county.  Cold air could mean frost in low-lying calm wind areas for a few more days. 

 

68 / 55

[Dan the Weatherman]

A fair amount of rainfall in northern/ central California with snowfall as low as 3000' in places.  The Sierra are getting more snow than what was observed last winter; a very encouraging sign.  Front seemed to wash out over SoCal with storm track going into Nevada instead of Arizona;  there were some rain reports in places in San Diego county.  Cold air could mean frost in low-lying calm wind areas for a few more days. 

 

68 / 55

It is really good to see snow in the Sierra this early in the season, as it could be a hint of things to come. I would like to see some substantial widespread rain here in Socal soon.

[Guest happ]

It is really good to see snow in the Sierra this early in the season, as it could be a hint of things to come. I would like to see some substantial widespread rain here in Socal soon.

 

Models suggest extended dryness for California unlike the PacificNW.

 

Winter temp conditions in early November;  frost advisories from northern California to the upper desert/ Antelope valley.  It was windy all night but I still managed to record 48°

[Guest happ]

Cool dry conditions w/ light wind; fairly typical.

 

72/ 50

[richard mann]

( .. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=88709

[Jesse]

GFS is sticking to its guns with a mild, wet solution at day 5.

[Guest happ]

( .. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=88709

 

Upper troughs have helped keep temperatures down over the Southwest fueling comments about going from summer to winter, by passing autumn. 

 

L: 52

[richard mann]

Upper troughs have helped keep temperatures down over the Southwest fueling comments about going from summer to winter, by passing autumn. 

 

L: 52

 

.. Make sense, to me.

 

(Follows, where considering what I'm seeing / looking at.)

[Guest happ]

Check out these dew points:

 

L.A. DOWNTOWN  SUNNY     76   0   5 CALM      29.98F                 
FULLERTON      SUNNY     79  15   9 VRB5      29.97F                 
GETTY CENTER    N/A     77  14   9 S8          N/A                  
UCLA            N/A     72  18  13 S7        29.97S                   

BURBANK        SUNNY     76   6   7 CALM      29.99F                 
VAN NUYS       SUNNY     76  16  10 N20G26    29.99F                 
CHINO          MOSUNNY   77   8   7 CALM      29.99F           
ONTARIO        MOSUNNY   75   1   5 VRB5      29.99F                 
SAN RAFAEL HI   N/A     76 -18   2 E6          N/A                  
 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I sure hope we get into a wetter pattern soon, as it has been much more inactive than normal, even as far as Santa Ana winds go. It has been really dry so far this month, and the next week looks rather dry except for possibly a few showers on Sunday / Sunday night. I think it is atypical for this much of November to be this dry in a strong El Nino. November 1997 brought nearly 2 inches of rain to downtown Los Angeles from about 4 different storm systems and those same storms brought some decent early-season rain here in Orange as well. I will note that most of this activity was during the second half of the month.

 

At least Norcal and the Sierra have been getting some much-needed precipitation this month, but I feel that Socal is being left in the dust at the moment. The fact that nothing significant is forecast in the extended range is what is concerning me right now.

[Guest happ]

Dan

 

Agree that we agonize over every possible shower after 4 years of drought.  All our moisture this rain year [jul-jun] has been from the trade winds.  It is encouraging that temperatures are not spiking too warm during brief santa ana winds that shift northly and become quite strong after the next front passes. Jet stream has to direct that moisture that wants to stay too far north. 

 

Dangerous humidities but diverse over short distances

PASADENA        N/A     66  23  19 E2          N/A            

SAN RAFAEL HI   N/A     74  -1   5 SE6         N/A          

[Dan the Weatherman]

Dan

 

Agree that we agonize over every possible shower after 4 years of drought.  All our moisture this rain year [jul-jun] has been from the trade winds.  It is encouraging that temperatures are not spiking too warm during brief santa ana winds that shift northly and become quite strong after the next front passes. Jet stream has to direct that moisture that wants to stay too far north. 

 

Dangerous humidities but diverse over short distances

PASADENA        N/A     66  23  19 E2          N/A            

SAN RAFAEL HI   N/A     74  -1   5 SE6         N/A          

 

At least the temperatures have been more within normal ranges lately, including the warmer days with offshore flow such as today, as opposed to the oppressive level of heat we had in the first half of October.

 

There actually hasn't been any wind whatsoever here in Orange the last two days, despite this being an area prone to Santa Ana wind events.

[Guest happ]

NWS_LA

"...STRONG
  SUBSIDENCE COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE CONDITIONS
  OVER THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS MONDAY EVENING AND BRING THE
  POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN
  PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LA
  CANADA...LA CRESCENTA THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED."
 

 

This worries me.  The last wind event caused power outages and downed tree branches.

 

81 / 52

[Dan the Weatherman]

The 00z models are showing absolutely nothing for the entire Western U.S. (except the extreme NW corner) all the way out through the end of November.

 

The pattern looks a lot like 2014-2015.  And 2013-2014. 

 

I am not impressed with the way this November is going, either. It is just too inactive for a strong El Nino in my opinion, not only in terms of rainfall, but also in terms of significant winds. I know that strong Santa Ana winds mean sky-high fire danger, but strong winds are often a sign of a more active pattern. Los Angeles had around 2" of rain in November 1997. This feels more like ENSO neutral like we had the last 2 years.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Just as I said the weather has been inactive, it now appears a more active pattern will take hold the next several days. First, there is a 40% chance of showers here in inland Orange County tomorrow and tomorrow night. After the storm moves through, it looks if a stronger Santa Ana wind event will take shape Monday night and Tuesday with possible gusts to 60 mph on Monday night in the Santa Ana Mountains / foothills region.

 

Maybe this will finally set the stage for a more active pattern overall, even if there is a lull in the action later next week as is forecast.

[Alan]

I think the crazy flip flopping in the long range will produce a solid statewide soaker by the end of the month / 1st week in December....hopefully after that the storms aren't too far apart.

[Guest happ]

List of monthly rain totals [my station] shows that November can be very dry or quite wet.  Novembers provide modest rainfall overall.

 

2000: 0.00

2001: 2.67

2002: 2.35

2003:  0.75

2004:  0.72

2005:  0.20

2006:  0.09

2007:  0.80

2008:  3.09

2009:  0.04

2010:  1.72

2011:  2.15

2012:  0.94

2013:  0.67

2014:  0.24

 

0.04 this month thus far

 

Stunning satellite image : http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=sat_4km&list=VIS4.GIF.3.jpg,VIS4.GIF.4.jpg,VIS4.GIF.5.jpg,VIS4.GIF.6.jpg,VIS4.GIF.7.jpg,VIS4.GIF.8.jpg

[Dan the Weatherman]

Another storm with a two-minute sprinkle here in Orange, which is getting ridiculous! Only .04" has fallen here since the beginning of November, and only .13" has fallen since October 1st. Why is it we can get summer deluges from tropical system remnants, but we can't get a decent widespread rainfall from the north this fall?

[Guest happ]

No rain to speak of but the airmass is decidedly colder.  Wind gusts of 35+ overnight in foothills but just as strong in South Bay/ Dominguez:

LONG BEACH     SUNNY     60  25  26 NW31G41   30.02R                 

[Alan]

.09" rain and 3" snow last night.

 

Quite the thunder n lighting show as well!

 

23F overnight currently 30F

[Dan the Weatherman]

.09" rain and 3" snow last night.

 

Quite the thunder n lighting show as well!

 

23F overnight currently 30F

 

That will provide some good snow making conditions for the local resorts! Just hope we can get a much bigger storm system soon that brings more widespread rain to coastal regions as well as more snow for the mountains.

[Alan]

That will provide some good snow making conditions for the local resorts! Just hope we can get a much bigger storm system soon that brings more widespread rain to coastal regions as well as more snow for the mountains.

With the sharp uptick in traffic I'd guess they're all open.....

[Guest happ]

Looking dry for a while with chances for Thanksgiving holiday showers especially in northern California.

 

Tuesday: 75 / 51

 

L: 52 [very dry air = lots of 40's across the area

[Guest happ]

Some low 90's likely this afternoon especially in usual warm spots [i.e. inland Orange county].  

 

Thursday 86 / 61

 

L: 65

[Dan the Weatherman]

Some low 90's likely this afternoon especially in usual warm spots [i.e. inland Orange county].  

 

Thursday 86 / 61

 

L: 65

 

I don't think it got quite that warm in inland OC today, but that may occur tomorrow if the Santa Ana winds come up as forecast tonight.

[Guest happ]

I don't think it got quite that warm in inland OC today, but that may occur tomorrow if the Santa Ana winds come up as forecast tonight.

 

Today is a better example of santa ana conditions with the highest maximums right down at the beach.

 

 

LONG BEACH ARPT   :     90 /  59 /  0.00

REDONDO BEACH     :     90 /  55 /  0.00

IMPERIAL BEACH       :     91 /  48 /  0.00 /

 

The reason inland Orange county often records the warmest temps during santa ana events is that the downslope winds accelerate twice.  First through the Cajon/ San Gorgonio passes and again over the Santa Ana mountains.

 

89 / 69 [minimum reflects near constant light offshore wind; it is easily 20 degrees cooler in lower canyons]

[Alan]

Wow. Oddly enough there were no winds at my location in the mountains, usually there would be.

 

53/43.

[Guest happ]

Wow. Oddly enough there were no winds at my location in the mountains, usually there would be.

 

53/43.

 

Your readings today could be my temps late this week.  Coldest airmass of winter! 

 

L: 65

[Guest happ]

We can look forward to the coldest temps this year.  Last winter was so warm that minimums below 50° were rare.  December is the coldest month of the year for Los Angeles as it was last year.

 

Sunday 86/ 65

 

L: 62

[Guest happ]

Richard lives in Paradise

 

NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...PARADISE
1257 PM PST MON NOV 23 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO NOON PST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW ABOVE 2500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
7 AM TUESDAY TO NOON PST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
  NIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO
  AROUND 2000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...SLIPPERY ROADS...TRAVEL DELAYS...AND POSSIBLE CHAIN
  CONTROLS.

* LOCATIONS...AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET WITH 4 TO 8
  INCHES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

* SNOW LEVELS...4000 FEET EARLY TUESDAY...LOWERING TO 2000 FEET BY
  TUESDAY EVENING.

 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=92287

[Guest happ]

Cold front weakens moving southward but rainfall is a real possibility tonight.

 

70 / 53

[Alan]

33F rain right now - LOL!

[Dan the Weatherman]

I received .03" from this storm yesterday from a 10 minute late night shower.

[Guest happ]

Weak systems moving through the West Coast trough triggered thunderstorms offshore [Avalon: 0.70].  Ocean temps are basically mid/upper 60's. San Diego/ Orange county likely to get the most moisture, rotating out of the NW,  since rain shadow off the transverse range/ Tehachapi effects much of LA county, Ventura, Santa Barbara counties. 

 

Staying cold w/ lots of frost/ freeze warnings especially north.  Clouds kept minimums warmer than predicted; wind is also a problem for cold nights.

 

Thanksgiving: 63 / 49

 

L: 49

[Alan]

31/24 Thanksgiving & so far 29/23 today.

 

Wednesday morning I received .40" rain, yesterday a surprise 3" snow and today it's been snowing a couple hours but no further accumulations yet.

[snow_wizard]

The latest GFS shows absolutely no rain for So Cal over the next 10 days.  It's like no matter what combo of ENSO, PDO, and other indices we have you guys can't score.  You could still hit the jackpot in Jan and Feb though.  Nothing is for sure with this Nino IMO.