GEM looks pretty similar to ECMWF on Monday and still builds in a pretty big ridge because the trailing system comes south into Alaska so strongly that the lead system can't dig down into the PNW.
Appears to be an all or nothing situation... compromise doesn't seem to be on the table. Forecast is going to change dramatically when GFS and GEM finally cave.
I don’t know that the GFS and GEFS add any value to the forecast for next week, in fact they may be making the forecast worse by inflating the odds of a ridge when the superior EPS has already dropped the ridge odds down to 20% or less.
I’m not as confident as you w/rt the downstream/PNW ridge, but agree the GFS solution near/south of the Aleutians is BS. That’s a classic GFS failure mode (phasing/deepening ULLs).
The operational CMC shows how a big western ridge could legitimately happen. Very different than the GFS over the NPAC.