Lol. When convection is enhanced over the West-Pacific warm pool, it will ultimately force a western ridge in approximately 75% of cases (and near 100% of cases in the summer/fall).
And this is a clean, healthy MJO (wave-1 VP200 signature) with no background/ENSO signal to interfere at the moment. So climatologically, you would expect a warm/dry outcome with a high degree of confidence.
But no need to fret. This MJO will propagate into the E-Hem late in the month and into June, when it will coincide with the seasonal onset of the asian monsoon, which is likely to even further enhance the forcing from the Indian Ocean/E-Hem sector, and bring about a period of substantial western troughing (and likely the onset of the low frequency niña signal in the global tropics).
I think you’ll enjoy the eventual outcome (at least subseasonally) since the longest days of the year are likely to coincide with troughing in your region.
True that. I have been disappointed on previous campouts for the same purpose. That it is the first G4 level storm warning prompting a campout makes me cautiously optimistic.
The Map I saw showed the naked eye line down to the northern 3rd of California. Also the newest news on X is that it is stronger than they thought once it reached the first detection satellite. Either way a 3 minute walk down to the lake with a beer in hand is always a good thing:-)