Tom Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 ENSO 3.4 region cooking...ENSO 1.2 about 0.92C cooler http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 1.2 rose last week along with 3.4. Cdas has been way off in 1.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 1.2 rose last week along with 3.4. Cdas has been way off in 1.2CDAS does show the slight rise last week though...it has since cooled the last few days... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Was just watching a video put out by the NWS in Binghamton, NY. Met hosting the video saying convection across the 3.4 region will likely migrate west.Discusses overall pattern change. https://www.facebook.com/NWSBinghamton/videos/1035431629852814/?theater 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2015 Report Share Posted December 24, 2015 SOI has just had the biggest rise yet...pretty impressive and a sign this El Nino may start weakening quite a bit: Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 24 Dec 2015Average for last 30 days -10.70Average for last 90 days -12.25Daily contribution to SOI calculation 30.72 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Rapid decline in the ENSO 1.2 region... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png JMA Weeklies last week suggested convection near the central Pacific where the warmest waters are heading... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201512.D3012_gl0.pnghttp://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201512.D3012_gl0.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 SCRIPPS updated their ENSO forecast for next Autumn/Winter... Sept-Nov.. http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-01_for_2016-09.jpg Dec-Feb... http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-01_for_2016-12.jpg That's a super La Nina! Might be another interesting Winter next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 10, 2016 Report Share Posted January 10, 2016 That's just crazy. Will definitely be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png rapid decline??? Have only been hearing calls for that since november... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 SCRIPPS updated their ENSO forecast for next Autumn/Winter... Sept-Nov.. Dec-Feb... That's a super La Nina! Might be another interesting Winter next season. Was just reading more about what a la Niña does to the jet stream. It weakens it and makes it hard for Pacific air to flood penetrate far into the North American continent. With low solar activity we could be looking at a winter 13-14 redux. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 Was just reading more about what a la Niña does to the jet stream. It weakens it and makes it hard for Pacific air to flood penetrate far into the North American continent. With low solar activity we could be looking at a winter 13-14 redux.pretty bold call there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 Was just reading more about what a la Niña does to the jet stream. It weakens it and makes it hard for Pacific air to flood penetrate far into the North American continent. With low solar activity we could be looking at a winter 13-14 redux.As I said before, definitely going to be interesting to see the transition and the weather to follow it. I have a few ideas about the QBO and ENSO phase that I'm looking forward to seeing how or whether they play out or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 pretty bold call there It's a fact that the stronger the la Niña, the weaker the jet stream is. And when the Pacific jet stream isn't stronger, the cold dense air from Canada can travel easily into the nation.Some climatologist have been saying the winter of 2016-17 will be the start of some brutal winters as we go deeper into a type of maunder minimum. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 15, 2016 Report Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's a fact that the stronger the la Niña, the weaker the jet stream is. And when the Pacific jet stream isn't stronger, the cold dense air from Canada can travel easily into the nation.Some climatologist have been saying the winter of 2016-17 will be the start of some brutal winters as we go deeper into a type of maunder minimum.I'm not quite as sold on that theory (new maunder minimum) as some are. However, if you were to look at the long term (1895-present) 5 year running mean temperatures would show 30-40 year cycles in winter temperatures. We recently exited a 40 year warm cycle and are at a midpoint. That's not to say that there won't be above average winters mixed in but the overall trend should be below average temperatures over the central US during winters ahead. If I can find a link to the chart I have, I will edit and add it to this post at a later time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 For some who have questions about La Nina or El Nino, this might answer some of your questions: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 For some who have questions about La Nina or El Nino, this might answer some of your questions: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.htmlThat's a great link for those who don't understand what is going on with the ENSO state. BUT, I'd advise caution when assuming a "typical" Niño response. There's no such thing and someone who says so is just too lazy to do their D**n homework on causation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 ENSO 1.2 in the tank now and ENSO 3.4 rockets higher....crazy http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png The entire central basin continues to torch but is now clearly shifting towards the dateline near 150W. Convection will also continue to blossom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 It kind of makes sense that the warming is shifting west. The upwelling has commenced again along the South American coast. Soon region 4 will rise as the warm pool shifts towards its normal position by Papua New Guinea. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Dont look for the jet to slow any time remotely soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Dont look for the jet to slow any time remotely soonSeasonal weakening is inevitable once we get into Feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seasonal weakening is inevitable once we get into Feb.When the mechanism that is driving the jet weakens sure.. Even so there will be lag time on that. It wont weaken just because its suppose to every february. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 When the mechanism that is driving the jet weakens sure.. Even so there will be lag time on that. It wont weaken just because its suppose to every february.Doesn't really matter if the jet is over southern Mexico and Florida anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Doesn't really matter if the jet is over southern Mexico and Florida anyway.As systems zip through a hundred miles an hour... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 As systems zip through a hundred miles an hour...Yep. Unless it's an apocalyptic rainstorm over my house of course. Lol. Then it takes its sweet time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 The jet and anomalous PNA are to major reasons I'm getting irked with people saying that everything that's happened to date are caused by el nino. There really hasn't been anything typical about it so far in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 The jet and anomalous PNA are to major reasons I'm getting irked with people saying that everything that's happened to date are caused by el nino. There really hasn't been anything typical about it so far in my opinion.Everything no for sure not but do you think the jet isnt being driven by the ragging pacific??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 The jet and anomalous PNA are to major reasons I'm getting irked with people saying that everything that's happened to date are caused by el nino. There really hasn't been anything typical about it so far in my opinion. ??? El Ninos typically promote +PNAs, which is what we've seen for the vast majority of this winter. I'm not sure why you lumped the PNA as being anomalous so far this winter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 ??? El Ninos typically promote +PNAs, which is what we've seen for the vast majority of this winter. I'm not sure why you lumped the PNA as being anomalous so far this winter?Am I wrong or has there not been a trough stuck in the west for most of the first half of the winter with a ridge in the east? If that's not a -PNA signature more typical of La Nina I don't know what is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Everything no for sure not but do you think the jet isnt being driven by the ragging pacific???Oh I know that it is for sure. Not even a close argument there. Very atypical to see it suppressed so far to the south though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2016 Report Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's going to be fascinating to see how quickly the oceanic waters cool this summer. You can see the colder waters below are about to upwell to the surface. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 1, 2016 Report Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's going to be fascinating to see how quickly the oceanic waters cool this summer. You can see the colder waters below are about to upwell to the surface. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gifAbout time.... Some thought this would be way more rapid to happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 Cold water making a move towards the first 50 m of the ocean now.^ Cooling is becoming widespread now. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 It's amazing how much more cold water is surfacing all over the oceans on a week-to-week basis even. The ssta maps look nothing similar to what they did back in December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2016 Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 Something to ponder about for next Fall/Winter season... Current SST's in N PAC... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png GEFS in the longer range showing what happens when you establish a GOA trough/NW NAMER ridge... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032106/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_47.png JAMSTEC trying to show very similar SST's next season in N PAC... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1feb2016.gif Will it produce the same result with a La Nina??? Should be an interesting weather pattern next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 22, 2016 Report Share Posted March 22, 2016 Not saying anything definitive yet (obviously) but 1878-79 type of winter for next year seems to be a logical place to start thinking at this point given the incredible similarities in 15-16 to El Niño of 1877-78. Data is pretty sparse on these years also. Makes it pretty hard to study them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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