2015-2016 el Niño Watch/Discussion

[Tom]

ENSO 1.2 Region warming is having a minimal impact to the overall broader spectrum of the current ENSO...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

Easterlies have weakened a bit allowing for the slight ENSO 1.2 warming.  There is still a rather large difference between ENSO 3.4 & 1.2

 

Notice where the majority of the warming is occurring over the last week...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta-week.gif

 

 

Here are the weekly ENSO #'s...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

[gosaints]

So by your theory as long as 3.4 is warmer the 1.2 the temperature of 1.2 doesn't matter?  

[Tom]

So by your theory as long as 3.4 is warmer the 1.2 the temperature of 1.2 doesn't matter?  

It significantly suggests where the main convection will be centered in the tropics and therefore develops the mean trough to north in the N PAC (Aleutian Low) where all the global models are suggesting it to be centered in Dec-Feb.  In 1997-98 the main body of warmest waters were in ENSO 1.2 and in return placed the main trough off the western U.S. coastling flooding the U.S. with pacific air.  This season, that is the biggest difference between these two ENSO events.

[Geos]

I see the Aleutian Low trying to get established next week. It keeps on moving though during this timeframe.

 

 

[james1976]

It significantly suggests where the main convection will be centered in the tropics and therefore develops the mean trough to north in the N PAC (Aleutian Low) where all the global models are suggesting it to be centered in Dec-Feb.  In 1997-98 the main body of warmest waters were in ENSO 1.2 and in return placed the main trough off the western U.S. coastling flooding the U.S. with pacific air.  This season, that is the biggest difference between these two ENSO events.

Nice! That helps me understand the situation a lot more. And I remember the 97-98 Winter. No wonder it was so mild.

[Geos]

Here's an animation of what is too become of the equatorial Pacific waters in the coming months to year.

 

[james1976]

Here's an animation of what is too become of the equatorial Pacific waters in the coming months to year.

 

http://i.imgur.com/aSF0jx7.gif

Would that be a La Nina coming to fruition??

[Tom]

Would that be a La Nina coming to fruition??

Indeed, most models are starting to show a La Nina type pattern...some show a strong La Nina...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2015-11_for_2016-09.jpg

 

 

Here's an animation of what is too become of the equatorial Pacific waters in the coming months to year.

 

http://i.imgur.com/aSF0jx7.gif

That would be a very interesting weather pattern to have some warm waters still present in the GOA and off the Baja/Cali coastline while a strong La Nina is on going.

[OKwx2k4]

Huge nina+ positive PDO. Hmmm. There'd have to be a pretty narrow subset of years to fit that description.

[gosaints]

Looks like nino may have peeked. Only region not to drop this week....1.2

[Geos]

3.4 dipped to 2.9 this past week. Probably done rising given the SOI.

 

[gosaints]

If I have learned one thinking in watching nino evolve it is that you have to take the models completely with a grain of salt.  Most models had 1.2 tanking in november.  Still climbing.

[Geos]

Found this animation interesting. Not that it directly affects the surface weather, but colder water can be seen moving east and up slightly in the equatorial Pacific.

Next spring or summer those anomalies will have flipped if La Niña prediction hold true.

 

[Maxim]

Could be a an active severe weather season if that were to come fruition.

[OKwx2k4]

Found this animation interesting. Not that it directly affects the surface weather, but colder water can be seen moving east and up slightly in the equatorial Pacific.

Next spring or summer those anomalies will have flipped if La Niña prediction hold true.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

Yeah. That things going to crash and burn hard.

[gosaints]

Yeah. That things going to crash and burn hard.

The nino?? Other have been calling for its breakdown since early November.  The effects of nino are going to be felt at least well into january

[OKwx2k4]

I was referring to SSTs only.

[Geos]

Effects last longer than the warm SST anomalies. It's like the ghost of the el Niño lives a bit longer as it's dying.

[gosaints]

1.2 holding strong as 3 and 3.4 drop

[Geos]

1.2 holding strong as 3 and 3.4 drop

 

1.2 is usually the last area to drop.

[OKwx2k4]

Effects last longer than the warm SST anomalies. It's like the ghost of the el Niño lives a bit longer as it's dying.

Correct. The atmospheric effects of the 09-10 el nino lingered long into 10-11.

[Tom]

SCRIPPS ENSO Forecast...

 

Dec-Feb...

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2015-12_for_2015-12.jpg

 

Next Fall (Sept-Nov)...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2015-12_for_2016-09.jpg

 

 

Wow, now that is an impressive flip if this should transpire.  

[OKwx2k4]

Wow, they moved it up almost 2 months didn't they?

[Tom]

The latest JAMSTEC run continues to suggest the El Nino to crash and burn as we roll into the New Year...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1dec2015.gif

 

A weak La NINA develops by Autumn of next year according to this run.  Take a gander at what happens by late summer in the N PAC...very cold waters develop south of the Aleutians and another year may be on the table where warmer waters hug the NW NAMER coastline.  This SST orientation would set the stage for yet another interesting winter next year.  Let's not get ahead of ourselves though.  We still have plenty of Winter on the table this year.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2016.1dec2015.gif

[Geos]

The latest JAMSTEC run continues to suggest the El Nino to crash and burn as we roll into the New Year...

 

 

A weak La NINA develops by Autumn of next year according to this run.  Take a gander at what happens by late summer in the N PAC...very cold waters develop south of the Aleutians and another year may be on the table where warmer waters hug the NW NAMER coastline.  This SST orientation would set the stage for yet another interesting winter next year.  Let's not get ahead of ourselves though.  We still have plenty of Winter on the table this year.

 

 

Fix those pic links when you get a chance.

 

That will be one interesting combination if warm waters are still hugging the West Coast.

[gosaints]

Every model has had nino crashibg abd burning since early november

[Tom]

Fix those pic links when you get a chance.

 

That will be one interesting combination if warm waters are still hugging the West Coast.

Fixed.  Can you see the pics in the Winter Outlook?

[gosaints]

Fixed.  Can you see the pics in the Winter Outlook?

yes

[Tom]

Easterlies have strengthened again as the SOI rises following the recent decline.  Having done so, cooler waters seemingly are up welling off the South American coastline as ENSO 1.2 region falling quickly.,...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

Meanwhile, ENSO 3.4 holding steady suggesting the warmest waters are migrating towards the central Pacific.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Tom]

ENSO 3.4 rising a bit as warmer waters migrate west-ward...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

 

 

ENSO 1.2 still declining...looks like a true "Modiki" like Nino is trying to form...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

[gosaints]

Its almost january. The modoki ship has sailed. Any met would agree

[Tom]

Its almost january. The modoki ship has sailed. Any met would agree

Whatever you say...I'll make sure I sharpen my pencil and take this note down.  You obviously are not seeing the trough south of the Aleutians that the models are picking up on which correlates very well when you see a Modiki Nino.

 

For example, CFSv2 Weeklies see it happening in the central Pacific...

 

Week 1...barely any convection

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015122006/cfs-avg_mslpa5d_cpac_1.png

 

Week 2...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015122006/cfs-avg_mslpa5d_cpac_2.png

 

Week 4....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015122006/cfs-avg_mslpa5d_cpac_5.png

 

As more convection develops in the central Pacific, the response is to build the trough due north and placement is very similar to where the EPS/GEFS are seeing it.  Winter is maturing and Nature is responding.  Jet hasn't even reached it's peak yet, far from it...

[gosaints]

I am basking in my plus 12.4

[Tom]

I am basking in my plus 12.4

Fantastic...did you put on any SPF 30?  J/K

[gosaints]

Lol. By the way I still believe we do see I to I in the idea of storms.

[gosaints]

what an epic collapse

 

Latest values:

 

Region1+2 and 3.4 went up .1

This ain't collapsing...

[gosaints]

A nice add on. Since november 18 1.2 has risen .3 degrees while 3.4 has dropped.

[OKwx2k4]

Hmmm, where are the charts for this? Interesting.

[gosaints]

Cpc weekly updates

[OKwx2k4]

Cpc weekly updates

Cool. Thanks.