Because of a 3 week pattern break? We still have general La Nina conditions, with no Kelvin wave happening. I would say February is probably the highest risk of -PNA.
More of a flatter ridge though. The 12z EPS is actually showing wetter than normal precipitation now for Western WA days 9-15. Still drier than normal for OR.
Well the regular ensembles sure are bleak today, but there's at least some hints of a signal trying to emerge for end of December in the extended suites.