It is all phantom snow anyway

You can actually trace that trough all the way back to now. It's currently a little blip baby trough over Eastern Russia but develops further over the next 48 hours, strengthens over the Sea of Okhotsk and cuts off over the Bering Sea/NPAC near the Aleutians at hour 96, and then gets progressively pushed into the Western CONUS by a decent jet streak. Hopefully models will come into further alignment on the big picture over the next 2-4 days as this thing develops. I always love looking at the source of things and continuously realizing how it's all one big connected train. Never ceases to amaze me.

Annual reminder, Kuchera or bust

The MJO continues to trend more amplified into phase 7. Bring down the cold!

Be back later. 12z ECMWF in 14 minutes