GFS is an outlier. Yes, it can sniff out patterns earlier, but its just drunk again tonight similar to last week. The pattern is favored to emerge by mid December at the earliest, more likely late December or January.

Oooph. Was out at a Christmas light up and parade celebration and came back to see a pretty good GFS run. Unfortunately the GEFS tonight was much worse compared to the 12z

I see where all the super cold air is bottled up what I like to see is all that cold air bottled up in Alaska like in 1989. Alaska had temperatures below negative 50 degrees and some of that cold air came down to the PNW. I was working for Fred Meyer's and went on my lunch break. I went by a bank that had a temperature reading of 38 degrees. I knew the arctic air was coming my way. The east winds were blowing like a banji and when I was driving back to work that same temperature readout said 27 degrees. Less than a hour the temperature dropped 11 degrees. By the time I got off the readout was down to 18 degrees. With the east wind, it felt way below zero. I went through two car battery's because of the cold. Those were the days of having a arctic outbreak

I think you’re right. There have been times the GFS has picked up on things before other models. The models need to get a clue with the SSW and the MJO phase 7 though. Expect more crappy runs until then

Ok now the deck over SeaTac is definitely solid and IFR. Was only a matter of time