Olympics on fire.

That's pretty skewed by 2015 and 2023, though. If you look at all Nino summers since 1950 where ONI peaked +1 or higher during the warm season, the picture outside of 2023 and 2015 is pretty different. So it just comes down to if you think any analogs before 2015 are completely irrelevant.

It has a +0.3 correlation for Portland. And +0.35 for Seattle. That's pretty high - higher than anywhere else in the US. JJAS ONI in 2020 was -0.45 (almost Weak Nina). JJAS 2019 was +0.25, so together your two analogs are net negative Nino 3.4.

The whole idea that Nino = roasty toasty super dry summer is sort of a myth. I think people have 2023 and 2015 foremost in their minds, but 2019 and 2020 were two of the coolest summers since 2012. And if you go back further, a good percentage of mega Nino summers were relatively cool and/or wet...1997, 1982, 1983, 1957.

SFHYRFNBCZEUIMN!