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The funeral procession will be at 10:00 tomorrow morning, coming down Airport Way and ending in the empty field between the IKEA and I-205. Jesse will read the eulogy.

This doesn't really look like a building ridge. And FWIW, there's pretty much zero support for the ridgy solution on the 18z ensembles.

I come here hoping to see more discussion about the latest models. It's amazing how much pointless bickering you have to sift through to get to the interesting posts.

I'm old enough, but I was actually going to school up in S. Dakota in 2000-01. 2009-2010 was amazing. One other winter that was that good that I remember off the top of my head was the winter of 96-97 I believe. I remember having 2-3 feet of snow on the ground where I lived up in S. Dakota and I could jump off the back part of my garage into the drifts that were up to my head.

You're still saying it's too early 14 days into the month yet you made a three month summer forecast!

Welcome fellow Lincoln member! Last year was my first year at UNL and I wanted to experience a real Winter. Ha. We have quite a few Nebraska members such as me, NEJeremy, NebraskaWX, Gabel, CentralNebWeather, and that one dude from Grand Island (Don't kill me for not remembering your name). Hope you enjoy it here!

Last, but not least, the JAMSTEC is in and it has sided with the CFSv2/JMA that we will see a moderate/central-based La Nina during the Autumn months. Although, by December, the SST configuration looks weak and I don't think I agree. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1sep2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.gif Moving along, you can see that Winter hits fast and hard in the PAC NW/Rockies/Upper Midwest. There is highly likelihood that we will see an active northern stream and a very active storm track across the central CONUS. We are starting to see model consistency (finally), of which, we have not seen over the past couple months. Personally, I feel there is a high probability a borderline moderate Nina is in the works. As for precip & temps, this would be a loaded pattern for CO Low's/Cutters beginning late Autumn and throughout the winter. Autumn... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2017.1sep2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2017.1sep2017.gif Winter... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.gif

Pic of a late Summer evening in Detroit, MI

"Winter..." Maps = ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄ = 1 happy camper!

I gotta tell ya, this type of weather this time of the year is totally amazing. I hope October is the same. Sunshine, warmth and low humidity. That spells "Perfecto"

Yeah, looking at re-analysis, I think you're correct. That storm was clearly dumping a lot of heat/mass up there given the unusual intensity of the anticyclone relative to the pattern it was residing in, which constructively feeds back with the trough in the west.

Popcorn time!!!

It's certainly happened on a number of occasions where strong hurricanes hitting the U.S. have coincided with extreme blocking elsewhere in the country. Of course we recently observed it with Harvey to an extent and the massive ridge over us, but off hand you also have Charley which coincided with the mid August 2004 Midwestern coldwave, Andrew and the late August 1992 airmass, and Kate which coincided with the 2nd arctic airmass in November 1985.

I wonder if the 1926 Miami hurricane gave a tropical assist to the record-breaking cold wave in the Rockies/PNW that month. Something similar to what you're talking about, where it boosted a ridge in the eastern US and caused/enhanced an upstream buckle in the jet stream over western N. America? Just thinking out loud.

People are commenting on the 18z GFS, so Tim starts posting Euro maps...again.

First "Arctic outbreak" pattern of the season underway. Currently 42 with north winds at Cut Bank, with Fraser outflow at BLI.

I'm with Phil on his thoughts for this winter...Not sure about 2045 though...

Quite the intense conversation in here today. Longer nights and smoke free nights are dropping those lows down. Another morning in the 40s - 47. It doesn't looks like any sustained ridging over the region for the next couple weeks from what I gather. More transient ridges.

Seems early to be putting this much energy into the September record. As if we know what the temperature anomaly will be over the next 2+ weeks? It should be a very warm month overall, regardless of whether the record falls.

Flatironing at its finest.

Whether or not it ends up breaking the record (I don't know enough about PNW climate to have an opinion either way), it will almost certainly finish with a very warm anomaly thanks to the excessive warmth during the first half of the month. This much has been clear to me for awhile. A poleward-extended WPAC warm pool is a *clear* conduit to late-summer western heatwaves, and this has always been the case, probably through the entire Holocene, back 11,000+ years. There was almost zero chance avoiding an early/mid September heatwave this year.

Looking at the EPS weeklies, I wouldn't be surprised if October snow got as far down as N IA. Trough after trough and cold anomaly after cold anomaly.

If Bozeman gets more than 1", looks like it will be the first time this early since 1988. If they get more than 2", you'd have to go all the way back to 1910. If they top 3", it would be heaviest snowfall on record before 9/19.

Yep, at least in regards to the development of a new background state. A quick seasonal transition in Eurasia, generally speaking, indicates a NH system state more willing to leave its summer mode and enter its winter one. While it doesn't guarantee an epic winter in your backyard, it certainly makes it easier, since we won't have a super-expanded Pacific Hadley Cell descending branch trying to act as a pseudo NPAC ridge (dirty ridge look), which requires a SSW to break down in time for January.

I lived in California for 2000-2001 and Houston for 2009-10. I study Lincoln climatology day and night though so I know how awesome those Winters were.

Very encouraging signs out in today's JMA seasonal which is indicating a similar -NAO look the CFSv2 is flashing for October as the new pattern evolves. Looks like a stout -AO block develops in November and the PAC jet continues to drive storms into the west and a very wet look transpires. By December, as the seasonal jet intensifies, you can see a typical La-Nina pattern set in with a ridge in the SW & SE. Northern stream dominant pattern with a 500mb flow that would encourage cutters.

Welcome to the Forum! We do have quite a few posters in the central Plains and I believe you will enjoy this forum. Looking forward to an exciting Winter season ahead!

Mother Nature needs to give us a top 5 snowy winter to make up for the top 5 least snowy of last winter. This decade has got to start delivering the goods eventually. Looking back in previous decades it's almost always the same way. We get a few below average winters and then a few above average ones. Well, this decade has been skimping majorly on the above average category..time to deliver mother nature...even things out!

Winter is showing it's head in the long range models; that 540 thickness line keeps sneaking it's way across the lower 48. I can't wait to start seeing those wound up snowstorms show up!

Just outside Calgary...Kananaskis Valley...

Anybody know taps? http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=pqr&sid=PDX&pil=CLI

Down to 40F here currently and 0.76" of rain on the day so far with moderate rain continuing. Can see the snow line just up the hill about 5-800' above me now.

That's actually a good thing to read at the eulogy tomorrow. Thanks!

Gorgeous evening outside currently.

10-12 days in August were horrible, the rest of the summer was the opposite of awful.

Yeah, tropical systems look like a very interesting wild card for blocking patterns thousands of miles away. I'm also reminded of when those typhoon remnants barreled into Alaska in November 2014, triggering the jet stream buckle that led to a pretty epic coast to coast cold wave.

Blocking galore. Triple anticyclonic wavebreak. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9FA0E3D5-62A6-47E5-ADE7-0B8F142DC4CD_zpsfujygfc2.png

That's a strong-a** jet by Wednesday. Tim may be in mid-season form in less than a week.

The chicken doesn't hatch the egg, the egg hatches the chicken.

All three of you reek of scotch and cheesecake.

We rarely have such drawn out debates with so many maps when weeks of warm ridging look imminent. Even people like Jim or Andrew or I who prefer cooler conditions mostly roll with it or don't post at all. But if a potentially prolonged troughy period shows up, uh oh! Tim is scared shitless and suddenly this place becomes VERY active. Lots of day 10+ maps, lots of hyperbole.

I'm sure we will be getting hour by hour reports of SEA's temperature anomaly potential for the day soon, or how it is running warmer than Jim et al thought. Then maybe even a webcam shot of a sun break in Covington. Followed by a day-15 hosted image of the GEM showing 594 heights over us. I guess at very least this behavior will let us know that a cool period is back. You calm down a lot when temperatures are comfortably above average for weeks. Nothing to go to war against. The cold freaks are properly crushed and demoralized, as they should always be for holding such perverse preferences.

Incredible activity in NorCal over the past few days including over 2000 lightning strikes in 24-hours. Lake Tahoe - Andrew Joros

With a predicted strongly -AO from GEFS ensembles, its hard not to imagine some colder air to swing down into the central CONUS after the 20th-22nd period. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Sensationalistic!

Usually a warm September and October ends up being a cold Winter down the road. So, let the warmth begin.

That's why I keep coming back to that one. 2000-01 was pretty special because it was really like it was just suddenly winter. It's a weird year but it fits so many timelines in regards to ENSO and atmosphere/ocean coupling in other regions as well. I'm also getting my warm September weather back (as I hoped) starting tomorrow so thinking is currently leaning towards an early and hard winter.

Don't know but I cannot wait. Sorry for the chain of posts. I've been away for a few days. Lots of good posts to read through.

Love hearing and seeing everybody's passion for weather through pictures, videos, postings and information! Keep it up everyone.....looks like we will see another month of dry weather in the first half and wet in the second half. I must say that this year's ending to the LRC has been pretty spot on for us in the Plains. I'm keeping my eye on a hurricane coming up from the baja california peninsula area; then gets carried up through our area around one week from tonight. I can't recall being affected from an extra-tropical area of low pressure that originated as a hurricane . That would mark the end of a wild wet pattern this summer and would bring on a mad dash towards the fall. As an avid gardener, I'm hoping for a warm and wet stretch of weather until about mid-october. If I can avoid a hard freeze until then I could possibly have tomatoes for thanksgiving. That, of course, only happened once in my life as that was last year. I'm hoping for a volatile, wild fall that will lead to a wild wonderful winter for all!!

I'm expecting Portland-area snow busts on December 1st this year, then.