Tom Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 Models have been showing a couple disturbances to traverse the region tonight and a more robust clipper Tue/Wed period. Here is the 18z NAM snowfall map. Went a bit south this run with the Tue/Wed event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM all over the place as usual this far out. Current snow chances are 50% here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 Dubuque going to cash in on Wednesday's system. 4.5" or so. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 And the march to the south begins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 Dubuque going to cash in on Wednesday's system. 4.5" or so. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-7389-0-83484400-1393883958.jpgis this gfs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 is this gfs? Yes. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 Dubuque going to cash in on Wednesday's system. 4.5" or so. Only problem with that is the amount of times it's still going to change.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 DMX discounting NAMhttp://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 LOT mentioning there could be a LES set up for NE IL on Wednesday with this system as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Some developing snow in western Iowa right now, DVN mentioned it could bring up to an inch of snow over here. Had no idea about this until I read the AFD this afternoon. Also going with 1-3" for the Tuesday night/Wednesday system, so should add another layer of snow this week before the brief warm-up later in the week.. This is what the latest HRRR showed: EDIT: Sorry, just actually realized I put this in the wrong thread.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 NAM seems a tad north with tomorrow wave. James will like this run. Covering the first 2 waves. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 looks great. nice surprise coming down right now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 MKX's calls. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 0z GFS Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 GFS still not too bad, but putting me a little too close for comfort. We'll see what happens tomorrow with the trends, anything can happen with these dang clippers.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 my forecast for tonight is 1/2". Radar looks better than that, any thoughts or are those radar returns not all hitting the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 1.4" here this morning. 18:1 ratio. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Posted it in the other thread as well, but picked up 1.5" overnight and temp got down to 6 this morning, a little colder than guidance.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 same here right around 1.4-1.5" on to tonights "storm" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meichel Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 .125" here, maybe. Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Bottom at 9° for this morning. 12z NAM is losing some steam. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 12z GFS looks a bit stronger for northern iowa for tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 My guess for tonight is 2".. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 12z GFS...that looks pretty good for IA and for N IL/S WI. You just never know with these Clipper's how they develop. Just like last night, the northern counties of IL received a surprised 1.0-1.5" of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 My worry with this clipper is the weakening that looks like is going to take place as it heads east. That does not always bode well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 What worries me is that the GFS is actually wetter than the NAM! The almost never happens. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 looks pretty put together out in ND at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Had well over 2" last night. Radio said 2 1/2"... Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 ^ Geo's, that would be redic if that much moisture fell... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHawkeyes Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Is that for tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_eus_045_precip_p36.gif Perhaps the NMM is out to lunch. Weenies on the menu. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 12z GFS...that looks pretty good for IA and for N IL/S WI. You just never know with these Clipper's how they develop. Just like last night, the northern counties of IL received a surprised 1.0-1.5" of snow.Wow, that puts me right on the edge of the 6" line. that would be epic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Both NMM/GFS showing a lot more moisture than the NAM but the 12z 4km NAM not bad also... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Perhaps the NMM is out to lunch. Weenies on the menu.Well why not...it's been 3 days since we've had a decent snow so we are due!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Skilling mentioned yesterday that the jet stream placement puts our region in the maximum lift tomorrow in the "right rear" entry region. Could be another surprise snowfall in the making. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Well we all know that the Euro has under-performed this winter with qpf...especially with the clippers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 + Tony, complete bust with last Saturday's system. I think it had less than .10qpf for ORD! LOL Anyway, I like what I'm seeing in the trend for the models. Showing some decent qpf totals that may warrant an advisory for this afternoons disco's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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