Wxmidatlantic Posted March 1, 2019 Report Share Posted March 1, 2019 12Z looks good. CMC/NAM trending south. GFS steady. Could be a memorable March.Included 10day CMC. Says we may get one more. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2019 was expecting 12-18 inches of snow, the models even supported it - got six inches of sleet and no snowIt happens, its that x-factor in every storm. That's why we stare at radars. Reality can be much better than digital estimates. Looks like NYC may have a good year this week... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2019 Sweet.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted March 1, 2019 Report Share Posted March 1, 2019 I'm usually over in the PNW threads but I'm in NYC for the month – what's going with the local NWS office? I've seen them repeatedly forecast dry or rain only to cave to snow at the last minute. And I'm seeing models forecast snow in the coming days without much mention from NWS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2019 I'm usually over in the PNW threads but I'm in NYC for the month – what's going with the local NWS office? I've seen them repeatedly forecast dry or rain only to cave to snow at the last minute. And I'm seeing models forecast snow in the coming days without much mention from NWS...They have a protocol. It is a conservative mesh. They get paid the same. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2019 Low pressure near Lumberton NC. We are getting to the part were Goddie Locks meets the bears. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 1, 2019 Report Share Posted March 1, 2019 I'm usually over in the PNW threads but I'm in NYC for the month – what's going with the local NWS office? I've seen them repeatedly forecast dry or rain only to cave to snow at the last minute. And I'm seeing models forecast snow in the coming days without much mention from NWS...Different culture over here..4-8” of snow won’t cripple the infrastructure so unless it’s a snowmageddon type nor’easter dumping 20”+ in a day, more time is devoted to getting the forecast and probabilities correct, as opposed to freaking out the public, which just leads to traffic jams and road rage. Our WFO puts out HWO statements ahead of time to notify the public during the monitoring stages of snowstorms while leaning conservative in the forecasts until a day of two beforehand. It has worked out very well to this point, even if it’s less “fun” for wx weenies. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Some random wet snowflakes mixing back in here as this bright banding moves overhead. Still 90% rain, 33*F. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Last dance... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Looks like 1-2" of snow will fall Friday. It will be mainly an atmospheric event. Accumulations 1/2 to 1" on grass, cartops. If that forecast doesn't get us hammered, nothing will....lol Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2019 Nothing goes better with coffee than a fantasy late March Blizzard... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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