There’s another element I didn’t see before re: bifurcation point in the pattern/guidance.
The GFS/GEFS (and half of GEPS members) take a second shortwave trough and dig/phase it with the pre-existing ULL under the NW-Pacific anticyclone, while the Euro/EPS and ICON keep it relatively progressive.
That is the ultimate difference maker. And while the GFS is almost always too aggressive in digging such shortwaves even within 48hrs, the CMC isn’t (at least not to the same degree).
The smallest differences in the handling of the NW-Pacific situation makes a massive difference downstream!
The man people on here are grovelling over. Effing sad that half our country is apparently ok with this and thinks he deserves to be the one commanding our troops.