March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

too bad it won't verify though    

Oh Maxim....wish casting for no Snow again???  Snow flakes are going to fly in your back yard Sunday night that you obviously didn't want. Spring snows are common in this type of pattern that is setting up in the mid/long range.

[Maxim]

Oh Maxim....wish casting for no Snow again???  Snow flakes are going to fly in your back yard Sunday night that you obviously didn't want. Spring snows are common in this type of pattern that is setting up in the mid/long range.

So you think the Illinois-Wisconsin border will get 10" like that map is showing? 2 feet for the UP?

[Tom]

So you think the Illinois-Wisconsin border will get 10" like that map is showing? 2 feet for the UP?

No, not at all, but your comments seem to say like there won't be any snow at all.

[Tom]

Let it Snow, Let it Snow....RPM has more snow than these amounts suggest...it will be interesting how much falls since it will primarily fall overnight...

 

[Tom]

ORD SREF mean up close to 4"...

[Geos]

Up to 2.7" here.

[gosaints]

Back and forth, but the cold will win for the last time before we see Spring come back in mid April. Euro Ensembles still in agreement. The cold and warm cycles of the LRC have been both extreme in their own ways.

The warm broke records here. We will see about the cold.. Have my doubts

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro is much colder late in the week, has a high in the low 30s Friday with strong wind.  The normal high is low 50s by then.

[NEJeremy]

You guys in the Lakes can keep your nuisance snows to end out the winter season! I can officially say I'm done with this lame a$# winter here and have moved on to spring. Except for the first couple of days of March, we've had wonderful spring weather. Already hit 90, several days in the 60s and 70s, the grass is turning green and the leaves are coming out on the trees. I don't want anymore snow unless it's a big one. I'm sure we'll have a couple more cool spells, but the real cold looks like it wants to stay northeast of here and hopefully all the snow too.

 

We've had 18" total here this year and 12" of that fell in a couple of days at the beginning of February. Bring on the thunderstorms and nice weather. For all the hoopla this winter was supposed to deliver it really was a dud, and that's the case for basically everyone in the US except for the Northeast.

[tim the weatherman]

jb and the what i am finding out that the tornado and severe weather will be above average this year thanks to the gulf of mexico so that means that this year will have above avg tornadoes and severe weather this year could be the big one.

[CentralNebWeather]

With you NEJeremy, what a horrible winter for us in the plains. I didn't think it could be as lame as last winter but I was wrong. Bring on severe weather. Better luck next winter.

[Tom]

ORD probably peaked for the high of the day about an hour ago at 33F, temp dropped to 32F when the snow began to fly.  I think temps are forecast a bit to high for tomorrow.  Models suggest low 30's, might not crack freezing tomorrow.

[Geos]

Feels like a February day out there today. Sun has pretty much disappeared now.

[Tom]

Interesting period shaping up over the next 10-15 days with the MJO heading into the cold phases (2 & 3) in March at the same time the Cold Phase of the LRC hit its stride.  Using the East Asian Theory, there may be a big storm that hits somewhere in the central CONUS as we open April.

[Tom]

00z Euro the last couple runs showing a declining AO/EPO.  Should be interesting to see if it holds and see the cold correct farther south in the longer range.

[Geos]

No way it's making the forecasted high today. Still at 28° at noon... on March 23rd!

[Tom]

Euro Ensembles/LRC and potential high latitude blocking are pointing to what could be a nasty open to the month of April.  Not to mention, 10mb strat warming is blossoming as winter's last stance evolves.

 

 

[Tony]

Looks like a little more snow showing up Thursday night into Friday morning on the GFS. If it happens it could push ORD over 50" for the winter season. I believe it only needs less than 1" to accomplish this.

[Tom]

Looks like a little more snow showing up Thursday night into Friday morning on the GFS. If it happens it could push ORD over 50" for the winter season. I believe it only needs less than 1" to accomplish this.

Before this system, I think ORD was at 43.7" and if they got over 6" they should have cracked 50".

[Tom]

It's going to be the Upper Midwest's turn to get in on the snowy pattern setting up over the next 10 days.

 

12z GFS showing several systems...

 

00z Euro was showing something similar and today's 12z Euro hinting at a big Spring storm developing in the northern Plains Day 8-10.  Track this far out not important, but someone will cash in on some Spring snow.s

[Tom]

12z Euro with a monster classic Spring storm Day 9-10 that dumps major snows from the Dakotas/MN/WI...

[Tony]

Before this system, I think ORD was at 43.7" and if they got over 6" they should have cracked 50".

Yep, just saw where it went over the 50" mark.

 

Enough now, lets get onto spring and a early start to summer.

[GDR]

Bring on warmer weather with some spring storms!

[Tom]

Nasty looking Easter Weekend shaping up on the 12z Euro Ensembles and the opening day's of April.  People are going to wonder if this is natures's April Fool's joke.  

 

Baseball season opener's in the central CONUS may get interesting.  Cub's opener is on April 5th vs Cardinals, Kansas City Royals opener April 6th vs Chicago White Sox.  Let's see if nature cooperates.

 

Notice the evolution of the NW NAMER ridge and blocking near the Pole indicative of a -AO.  If everything aligns just right, could be a Top 10 (maybe 5) coldest opening days of April.  Wild looking 500mb on the Euro.

[Tony]

Nasty looking Easter Weekend shaping up on the 12z Euro Ensembles and the opening day's of April.  People are going to wonder if this is natures's April Fool's joke.  

 

Baseball season opener's in the central CONUS may get interesting.  Cub's opener is on April 5th vs Cardinals, Kansas City Royals opener April 6th vs Chicago White Sox.  Let's see if nature cooperates.

 

Notice the evolution of the NW NAMER ridge and blocking near the Pole indicative of a -AO.  If everything aligns just right, could be a Top 10 (maybe 5) coldest opening days of April.  Wild looking 500mb on the Euro.

I sure hope the modeling is very wrong with this setup but long range GFS seems to be in agreement with the EURO. Could be a rough ride the next couple weeks with temps and frozen precip.

[Tom]

Looks like a little more snow showing up Thursday night into Friday morning on the GFS. If it happens it could push ORD over 50" for the winter season. I believe it only needs less than 1" to accomplish this.

Looks like the Ukie/NAM/GFS may be showing some lakeside snowfall potential in WI/IL Thursday night.  Cold NNE winds coming down the relatively "warmer" and open waters of Lake Michigan could produce some LES???  Would be wild to see on March 26th.

[Tom]

This year's LRC had extreme warmth and extreme cold.  To be honest, I'm not shocked that the real cold is starting to show up.

 

Meantime, ORD's official snowfall was 5.8" from today's system bringing the seasonal total to 50.1".  Probably not the last snow fall it will see this season.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Tom]

No way it's making the forecasted high today. Still at 28° at noon... on March 23rd!

I think the midnight temp will be the official high of 31F at ORD.  Didn't even crack Freezing today.  Won't be the last sub freezing high of the season.

 

Interesting LES potential setting up Thursday night.

[Maxim]

Midnight temp was 32 at ORD I believe. 

[Geos]

Temp already down to 25° here. Thinking upper teens for lows tonight.

[james1976]

Winter Weather Advisory over here for 2-4" and possible thundersnow. Gotta love these springtime systems.

[Maxim]

Temp already down to 25° here. Thinking upper teens for lows tonight.

Got down to 12° at UGN... Pretty amazing, but they're like the radiational cooling capital of the country, lol. Only got down to 25° at ORD.

[NEJeremy]

Had a nice heavy period of rain move through this morning. Temp was only 34 and at the end winds were real gusty out of the east up to 40 mph. It was funny some of the small airport reporting stations in the area were showing snow this morning even though there wasn't any falling. I'll have to check the rain gauge when I get home, but so far this month we were only at .03" of moisture(on pace for the 2nd driest ever I believe).

[Tom]

Last night's Euro Weeklies/Ensembles showed the colder than normal temps coming through the first 8 days or so of April, then a massive ridge builds in from the west that pushes east that locks and holds.  There may be some volatile weather to open up April in the central CONUS and probably not the last Spring snows of the season.  I booked my flight to AZ yesterday and will be flying out tonight.  Enjoy the snows who gets them, Spring is around the corner...that's if Mother Nature cooperates!

[gosaints]

GFS seems to flip next week for bit at least

[NEJeremy]

I know parts of the US were cold again in February, but meanwhile on the rest of the planet.....

 

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for February 2015 was the second highest for February in the 136-year period of record, at 0.82°C (1.48°F), above the 20^th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F). The warmest February occurred in 1998, which was 0.86°C (1.55°F) above average. Nine of the past 12 months have been either warmest or second warmest on record for their respective months (March and July 2014 were each fourth warmest, while November was seventh warmest.

 

From: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/2

[gosaints]

I know parts of the US were cold again in February, but meanwhile on the rest of the planet.....

 

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for February 2015 was the second highest for February in the 136-year period of record, at 0.82°C (1.48°F), above the 20^th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F). The warmest February occurred in 1998, which was 0.86°C (1.55°F) above average. Nine of the past 12 months have been either warmest or second warmest on record for their respective months (March and July 2014 were each fourth warmest, while November was seventh warmest.

 

From: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/2

Ha ha some on here will cringe at this.  I am sure the data is made up.... Wink wink

[CentralNebWeather]

Was forecasted to have an 80% of rain last night and this morning.  This morning we sit at 0.00.  Missed again.  Will be interesting to see the drought monitor come out later this week as last week we were already in early stages.  Need a massive pattern change.  Basically from Kearney NE and west it has been excessively dry.  I know that places east of us got some rain this morning which is good for them.

 

I have many students in my classes that have parents that farm or are in the farm industry and they mention to me how nervous their families are about the extended dry conditions.

[clintbeed1993]

Was forecasted to have an 80% of rain last night and this morning.  This morning we sit at 0.00.  Missed again.  Will be interesting to see the drought monitor come out later this week as last week we were already in early stages.  Need a massive pattern change.  Basically from Kearney NE and west it has been excessively dry.  I know that places east of us got some rain this morning which is good for them.

 

I have many students in my classes that have parents that farm or are in the farm industry and they mention to me how nervous their families are about the extended dry conditions.

 

It will be another wet spring.  The pattern will flip in April like it did last year.