th_snow Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 The models are hinting at a possible snow storm for the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Too early to know where the rain/snow line sets up as we have a few days to go to watch this. At least it will help some with the drought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2015 Report Share Posted March 19, 2015 You know its been a dull snow season up near MN when the_snow posts in late March! 12z Euro isn't that enthusiastic about the snow potential but like you said, things will change. Hope you get your snow that is much needed up that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 GGEM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015032000/gem_asnow_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
th_snow Posted March 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 Out of all the 0Z guidance that is in the ggem is the furthest south and strongest. Will be interesting to see if its right or not. Still a ways out until we know for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 I'll admit I wasn't thrilled to read the NWS Green Bay AFD this morning. Really hoping to get aerial photography and LiDAR flown soon. AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM IS A TREND TO A MORE WRAPPED-UP/COLDER SYSTEM WITH A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SW RATHER THAN THE W. THIS SCENARIO IS FULLY SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEM WHICH BRINGS AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARD CHICAGO AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THIS WOULD PRODUCE MORE MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT OVER THE NORTH. PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE PRECIP PUSHES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER AS THE MODELS HOPEFULLY CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE AS OPEN AS IT HAS BEEN IN RECENT WEEKS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING TO NEAR 0.75" SO THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE MOISTURE STARVED. DEPENDING ON HOW WRAPPED UP THE SYSTEM GETS...A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW COULD SET UP OVER THE AREA...OR JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE SYSTEM DOES GET MORE WRAPPED UP...THERE COULD BE SOME DRY SLOT CONCERNS AS WELL. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE WITH THIS THIS SYSTEM SO WON`T GET TOO FANCY WITH THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT AND WILL MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT IT APPEARS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE QUITE MESSY WITH A BURST OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO WINTER FOR SOME SPOTS. COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH- CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 20, 2015 Report Share Posted March 20, 2015 GGEM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015032000/gem_asnow_us_20.png What's confusing is that the snow on this map is from the first wave which is what I thought the thread was about, then I realized this thread is actually about the storm following. I guess it's important to have dates on these threads so we know which event people are talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 12z Euro...temp profiles for some of the snow in Wisco may be marginal.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 21, 2015 Report Share Posted March 21, 2015 3 inches of slop max. But it is needed moisture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 00z GFS...nice hit for the Northwoods and the UP... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
th_snow Posted March 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 Models have definitely slowed this down and drawn in more cold air as the storm looks to have taken a more southern route. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted March 23, 2015 Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 Could be my biggest snowfall of the 2014-15 snow season if all the pieces fall into place. TO SHOW YOU THECOMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST...GRB NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATED0.4 INCHES OF ICE WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELSUPPORTED THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION. ALSO...THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEMWAS OF CONCERN. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL IN ABOUT A 6 HOURPERIOD. THOSE TYPE OF EVENTS USUALLY DO NOT GET US TO WARNING CRITERIA. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 23, 2015 Report Share Posted March 23, 2015 SWS issued here for fzr and several inches of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted March 25, 2015 Report Share Posted March 25, 2015 Storm was pretty much as advertised. Most reports were in the 2-4" range and I'll call it 2" imby. Here's a picture of my driveway this morning. UPDATED WINTER TOTALSMONTH / AVG TEMP / SNOWFALL / GREATEST 24HRNOV / 25.9 / 11" / 4.8"DEC / 24.1 / 2.5" / 1.3"JAN / 16.7 / 8.7" / 3"FEB / 7.5 / 3.5" / 2"MAR / 32.7 / 2.5" / 2"TOTAL SNOW = 28.2" Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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