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August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

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in West of the Rockies

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Lots of southerly flow with the potential for little/no progression to what could be a moist pattern.

 

Don't freak...

Both the GFS and Euro and advertising a fairly progressive trough kicking through starting Friday.

 

Between now and then the low is stalled offshore, but it's too far away to give us any precip until late in the week.

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Tyler Mode
Tyler Mode

Eh...I'll be heading to Alaska in a few weeks...Guaranteed fall???  I hope so.   We went to an abandoned house outside of The Dalles...nice quite place.  On the way there, the traffic into Rooster Roc

BLI snowman
BLI snowman

Since March 23, the most rain Portland has had in a single calendar day has been .41".   That's pretty pathetic and probably some type of record. They're really overdue.

Front Ranger
Front Ranger

Hey. This isn't a seismology forum.   It's a weather/gardening/wildfire/sports/law/aspiring comedians/personal therapy/anti-Canadian forum.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Both the GFS and Euro and advertising a fairly progressive trough kicking through starting Friday.

 

Between now and then the low is stalled offshore, but it's too far away to give us any precip until late in the week.

Lots of possibilities.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Lots of possibilities.

Maybe another convection, wind-fueled fire explosion. Looks like same pattern as the one that started the firestorms 10 days ago on some runs.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

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For months the CFS has been focused on rain chances in the late August/early September time frame. Looks like it may have nailed it. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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For months the CFS has been focused on rain chances in the late August/early September time frame. Looks like it may have nailed it. 

 

Unless the whole thing cuts off way offshore and pumps a 612dm ridge over us, like the Canadian has been showing.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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For months the CFS has been focused on rain chances in the late August/early September time frame. Looks like it may have nailed it. 

 

I'm saying it NOW.  80% chance we see rain in late August/early September 2016.  

 

Plan accordingly.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Starting on a ridge above a certain North Bend, WA yuppie haven perhaps?

 

 

Maybe!   

 

Its a possibility.    

 

Original point was that an ejecting ULL that has been spinning offshore for several days could be a bad situation given the conditions to our east.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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For months the CFS has been focused on rain chances in the late August/early September time frame. Looks like it may have nailed it. 

 

 

I am guessing rain in November.   I am going to nail this one.    You watch.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Maybe!

 

Its a possibility.

 

Original point was that an ejecting ULL that has been spinning offshore for several days could be a bad situation given the conditions to our east.

Sorry, man. This isn't a classic cut off low set up.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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Sorry, man. This isn't a classic cut off low set up.

The low never fully cuts off like the one a few weeks ago did. At least that's how it's looking for now. It just kind of stalls and elongates offshore before finally getting punched in with the help of some northern steam energy.

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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I've actually seen it. And it is funny because I could see you being both of them.

Nah. The "okay" guy is totally you. It's perfect because I'm they guy who gets his feathers all ruffled by it. :lol:

 

I didn't know you were a Key and Peele fan. We have so much in common. :wub:

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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The low never fully cuts off like the one a few weeks ago did. At least that's how it's looking for now. It just kind of stalls and elongates offshore before finally getting punched in with the help of some northern steam energy.

Okay.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Nah. The "okay" guy is totally you. It's perfect because I'm they guy who gets his feathers all ruffled by it. :lol:

 

I didn't know you were a Key and Peele fan. We have so much in common. :wub:

Big fan. Especially after their role in Fargo.

 

And you freak out either direction. Not caring enough or caring too much...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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12Z Canadian brings it through as a typical trough late Sunday into Monday...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

 

And then returns us to ridging heading into September...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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I'm sure it will change and the trough will continue getting pushed back, but the Euro sure is purdy.

 

Hopefully the rain this weekend won't be accompanied with any wildfire igniting winds.

I sense some Atmospheric Wrath-patented cautious optimism!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Looks wet this weekend and early next week.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Through hour 234 the 18z GFS looks amazing. ;).

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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