August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I don't remember expressing any dislike toward the 8-14 event. In fact I remember praising it. Seeing any rain was awesome. Wish we would have gotten more further south, but it was exceptional further north. No one should or will take that away from you. You're being ultra defensive about a period I never even downplayed!

 

I guess we'll see how the numbers play out...

[Deweydog]

If I don't talk about gardening preferences, who will!? WHOOO!?

 

It stresses him out.  

[Jesse]

It stresses him out.

So so much. I'm literally rocking in a corner right now.

 

I think the person who is worrying whether too much rain will make the ground too wet for his garlic while we're in the midst of an historic drought is the one with the stress issues!

[Jesse]

I guess we'll see how the numbers play out...

My guess would be less intense rainfall in some places, but more evenly distributed lighter totals regionally.

 

Also worth mentioning is, at this juncture, the upcoming troughy period looks to be longer lived that the two day quick hitter on the 14th-15th. Possibly more rain chances in the LR, which is significant given how ridiculously dry it's been.

[stuffradio]

So so much. I'm literally rocking in a corner right now.

 

I think the person who is worrying whether too much rain will make the ground too wet for his garlic while we're in the midst of an historic drought is the one with the stress issues!

If it was only ~2" of rain, I wouldn't bring it up. It's showing 5-8" of rain by next week though...

[Deweydog]

Do you think we can book The Scorpions in time?

 

I think it looks fun to track and worry about.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_324_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=1000_500_thick&fhr=324&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150827+12+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[Jesse]

I think it looks fun to track and worry about.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_324_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=1000_500_thick&fhr=324&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150827+12+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

Nice.

 

I figured you were just mocking me by calling Saturday's trough a hurricane.

[BLI snowman]

Two weeks ago.

 

That was an exceptionally active event. This one may rival it but probably won't equal or exceed it.

 

Since March 23, the most rain Portland has had in a single calendar day has been .41".

 

That's pretty pathetic and probably some type of record. They're really overdue.

[Jesse]

Since March 23, the most rain Portland has had in a single calendar day has been .41".

 

That's pretty pathetic and probably some type of record. They're really overdue.

Let's not get too carried away...

[Abbotsford_wx]

I'm only at .25" of rain for August, but it looks like we'll get as much as 3" in the final three days of the month and end up well above normal. It will certainly pad the stats to make it seem like a wetter summer than it's been.

[Deweydog]

Nice.

 

I figured you were just mocking me by calling Saturday's trough a hurricane.

 

Paranoia the destroyer.  

[Deweydog]

Since March 23, the most rain Portland has had in a single calendar day has been .41".

 

That's pretty pathetic and probably some type of record. They're really overdue.

 

Pretty crazy. 

[Kayla]

You all have to admit, there is a pattern change in the works that we haven't seen in quite sometime and that it's okay to get a little excited about.

[Jesse]

Paranoia the destroyer.

Hey, I'm not the one who immediately assumed everyone was trying to take 8/14's birthday away.

[Jesse]

You all have to admit, there is a pattern change in the works that we haven't seen in quite sometime and that it's okay to get a little excited about.

Yes, but let's not get too carried away...

 

This is fun! Makes me feel vaguely authoritative. I see why Dewey likes it so much.

[Kayla]

Yes, but let's not get too carried away...

 

This is fun! Makes me feel vaguely authoritative. I see why Dewey likes it so much.

 

It's a lawyer thing.

[Deweydog]

Hey, I'm not the one who immediately assumed everyone was trying to take 8/14's birthday away.

 

Perspective, my man.  I realize weenies tend to focus too much on their own backyard, but yeah...

 

Like I said, if PDX scores an inch or more (give or take) this weekend I'll be right on board with the watershed (pun!) nature of this weekend's activities.  

[Jesse]

Perspective, my man. I realize weenies tend to focus too much on their own backyard, but yeah...

 

Like I said, if PDX scores an inch or more (give or take) this weekend I'll be right on board with the watershed (pun!) nature of this weekend's activities.

I was fully aware of the more impressive aspects of that event up north.

 

An inch might be a tall order. I think the bigger story is that troughing looks to stick around with (potentially) more rain chances in the mid-long range, as opposed to the pattern immediately reverting back to ridging like it has the last 18+ months.

[Deweydog]

I was fully aware of the more impressive aspects of that event up north.

 

An inch might be a tall order. I think the bigger story is that troughing looks to stick around with (potentially) more rain chances in the mid-long range, as opposed to the pattern inmidiately reverting back to ridging like it has the last 18+ months.

 

It's going to be probably the most persistent long wave cyclonic pattern we've seen in a few months, yes, but that can be said by late August/early September during a lot of years.  Probably on par in some ways with mid November 2014.  Did you really think the default of the last couple years would just continue forever?  It should be noted though, despite your playful chiding, that a troughy pattern and an active pattern are not always synonymous, especially this time of year.  

[BLI snowman]

I think it looks fun to track and worry about.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_324_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=1000_500_thick&fhr=324&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150827+12+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

That is Tropical Storm Jimena.

 

Honestly, in a strong El Nino year like this that is definitely worth watching for the West Coast. 1997 was the last year you could say that, with Ignacio and Linda that year making for some weather action in CA/OR/WA. That warm ocean can work some relative wonders. A juicy remnant low isn't out of the question.

[stuffradio]

The WRF GFS gives me a range of 5-10 inches. How am I not allowed to be worried about my Garlic with that amount? I demand justice!

[Deweydog]

That is Tropical Storm Jimena.

 

Honestly, in a strong El Nino year like this that is definitely worth watching for the West Coast. 1997 was the last year you could say that, with Ignacio and Linda that year making for some weather action in CA/OR/WA. That warm ocean can work some relative wonders. A juicy remnant low isn't out of the question.

 

I remember seeing a few similar tropical entities in the LR of the GFS over the years, but that might be the strongest I've ever seen it entertain at that latitude.  Pretty cool.  

[Jesse]

It's going to be probably the most persistent long wave cyclonic pattern we've seen in a few months, yes, but that can be said by late August/early September during a lot of years. Probably on par in some ways with mid November 2014. Did you really think the default of the last couple years would just continue forever? It should be noted though, despite your playful chiding, that a troughy pattern and an active pattern are not always synonymous, especially this time of year.

Check, check and check. You are assuming I'm not taking things into consideration that I already have.

 

I hope this isn't like November 2014. A ten day respite followed by more hard core torching for the next nine months and counting.

[BLI snowman]

I remember seeing a few similar tropical entities in the LR of the GFS over the years, but that might be the strongest I've ever seen it entertain at that latitude.  Pretty cool.  

 

It's already a weak tropical storm and should become a major cane in the next few days. The GFS solution is obviously doubtful, but its remnants could easily get entrained in the westerlies like it's showing.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/144319.shtml?5-daynl#contents

 

Ignacio is also a legit threat to Hawaii in the next week.

[Jesse]

6th consecutive low in the 50s at PDX. A new record for August.*

 

*Records only go back to 2013

[Deweydog]

Check, check and check. You are assuming I'm not taking things into consideration that I already have.

 

I hope this isn't like November 2014. A ten day respite followed by more hard core torching for the next nine months and counting.

Time will tell!

[Deweydog]

It's already a weak tropical storm and should become a major cane in the next few days. The GFS solution is obviously doubtful, but its remnants could easily get entrained in the westerlies like it's showing.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/144319.shtml?5-daynl#contents

 

Ignacio is also a legit threat to Hawaii in the next week.

The storm surge could serve as a good dress rehearsal for big quake/tsunami along the northern California/southern Oregon coast.

[Jesse]

Time will tell!

That'll anxiety him!

[Deweydog]

That'll anxiety him!

Do you think I actually know for sure?

[Front Ranger]

Yes indeed. We live in a rainy/cloudy climate.

 

Indeed. But the past couple of years the number of sunny/rainy days in Seattle stack up pretty similar to a lot of U.S. cities. Quite the stretch.

[Front Ranger]

It's going to be probably the most persistent long wave cyclonic pattern we've seen in a few months, yes, but that can be said by late August/early September during a lot of years.  Probably on par in some ways with mid November 2014.  Did you really think the default of the last couple years would just continue forever?  It should be noted though, despite your playful chiding, that a troughy pattern and an active pattern are not always synonymous, especially this time of year.  

 

BLIsnowman and I have been calling for troughing/wetness in this period for a long time. Years, at least.

[Front Ranger]

The storm surge could serve as a good dress rehearsal for big quake/tsunami along the northern California/southern Oregon coast.

 

This talk about a tropical storm moving towards the PNW 300+ hours from now could serve as a good dress rehearsal for GFS fantasy blizzards this winter.

[Deweydog]

BLIsnowman and I have been calling for troughing/wetness in this period for a long time. Years, at least.

Climo!

[Jesse]

Do you think I actually know for sure?

No, but judging by your comments I would guess you think this troughy period will only be a blip on the radar as opposed to a meaningful change.

 

Unless the November 2014 comparison was only a trolling attempt. It's so hard to tell these days!

[Jesse]

PDX may have another surprise 90 in the barrel today. They are currently on pace with yesterday.

 

At least that would put them at an even number.

[Deweydog]

No, but judging by your comments I would guess you think this troughy period will only be a blip on the radar as opposed to a meaningful change.

Paranoia?

 

I have said nothing even remotely close to that. , I was the only one who picked September in the big contest for the longest time.

[Front Ranger]

Climo!

 

Relative to climo, silly.

[Deweydog]

Relative to climo, silly.

We've been a very distant relative to that for quite some time! LOL!

[Front Ranger]

Paranoia?

 

I have said nothing even remotely close to that. s**t, I was the only one who picked September in the big contest for the longest time.

 

With this being the word of the day, let's all remember a 90s one hit wonder from Seattle.

 

[Jesse]

With this being the word of the day, let's all remember a 90s one hit wonder from Seattle.

 

Good song.