I've joked before with the OSU AMS chapter the SPC for Oregon is the kiss of death if they show a marginal risk and above. This was the outlook for October 14, 2016. 10 tornado warning ensued that day (2 was the previous record), with the Manzinita EF2 coming out of one of them.
I joke mostly but they do seem to struggle a lot more out here.
Becoming pretty clear the GFS actually has a decent handle on the situation over the next 7-10 days. The ECMWF has been far too amplified. Interesting that the GFS is doing better than the ECMWF with this pattern.
We're not going to know until Fall truthfully. Gut tells me moderate, but I'm not going off of any evidence except that trade winds need to be stronger to get that super cold water upwelled. If this happens I wouldn't expect to see signs until August to October.
There's no way... Phil. Get real with us for a moment. You're the guy who literally typed out "5,000-7,000Kybp" instead of "5-7 million years ago" like a normal human being.