Yep, not surprising at all since the driver(s) of the Aug/Sep lull were seasonally-fixed and were certain to attenuate through the autumn.
Best QBO matches in general or specifically within that analog pool? Because there are better QBO matches than the years you listed.
Good news is the filling/weakening trend it's showing in the 12-15 hours leading up to landfall there. Obviously a tough track for Tampa though and none of the globals are even in the right hemisphere right now with how weak they've initialized it.
Yes. Helene caused a lot of problems for wife's best friend's family there. The best friend is even talking about evacuation to Georgia or SC, considering she has lived in Tampa for like 15-20 years now.