Nice write-up @westMJim Am I the only one who noticed those analog years are almost exactly on a 10 yr frequency (missing mid-90s ofc)? One would think (hope) that NOAA's seasonal forecasts are getting better as time goes along. Wish I had saved their maps 11 yrs ago. Back in 2013 their outlook for the winter of 13-14 was so far off, it was ridiculous. Not saying anything about that year vs this one either, just an example of how bad even the professionals can be. I will add that I have a lot more hope going into this year that I will see real winter than I ever had living in Detroit burbs. Snows (when they came there) went just just as quickly.

The Euro weeklies are definitely improved. Tons of cold members on there. The extended GEFS is looking like there might be some hope with today's run too tbh. I still think we have a pretty solid chance of scoring in December, but we'll see.

00z GFs in 2 hours 3 minutes. Any improvements tonight? I'd be surprised honestly.

We avoided the 50- here today with a high of 49. 0.02" so far, should get a bit more precip overnight, better enjoy it while we have it because it looks dryyyy coming up.

Finally had a little bit of rain