I agree but it might be out of their range. I would expect some lasting cold to show up between the 3rd and 6th of December. Seems like there's about a 1 week lag before the atmosphere drastically responds to a phase change. Maybe it will happen sooner.

Something something analogs... This winter is trying to be a classic that we haven't seen for a while. That's for sure.

I'd say Jan 1969 was like a significantly longer version of Dec 2021 for your area. Or as has been discussed before, a colder version of Feb 2019. The late Dec 1968 event was like Jan 2024 on steroids.

Those were deep, top-down air masses. 1989 is the modern juggernaut when they advected to 9 degrees, but thicknesses were right around 500dm at that point compared to 540dm when PDX dipped to 15 in 2024. Prior that 2004, 2008 and 2014 stood alone in the low level department just clipping the upper teens at their zenith.

One would think models would trend back towards colder solutions with this