Wxmidatlantic Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 I am empessesd by storm/wave freguency next 14days. Primetime indeed. Borderline, no doubt. The biggest nothing, or something is afoot.., Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted February 2, 2020 Report Share Posted February 2, 2020 I Hope Larry Cosgrove is abserlutly wrong about the summer he going with 2012 and 2016 2012 summer was really awful heat wise after a noneshow winter that would be the ultimate slap in the face. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 I Hope Larry Cosgrove is abserlutly wrong about the summer he going with 2012 and 2016 2012 summer was really awful heat wise after a noneshow winter that would be the ultimate slap in the face.Yeah, I’m getting bad heatwave vibes with the persistence of the SE ridge. Showed up last fall and it’s been present off and on through the cold season. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Some nasty winds in the mountains tonight. Weirdish to see pressure rises and WAA on W/NW flow. Some upper 50’s/low 60’s out there as we approach 10PM. We’re still decoupled here @ 38*F but those winds could mix down anytime and spike is into the 50’s..areas just a few miles to the west have already surged past 55*F and are still climbing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Inversion broke..now up to 55*F in a flash with the wind roaring outside as we approach midnight. Clear skies. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Yikes. 62mph @ Petersburg, 51mph @ Winchester and also 51mph @ Front Royal. Temp up to 60*F here with gusts ~ 40mph. Definitely didn’t expect this type of downsloping at night without any CAA. Not in any forecasts or modeled boundary layer soundings either. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 72mph @ Wintergreen earlier. That’s pretty solid. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2020 Downsloping shut off at ~ 5AM and we plummeted from 60*F right back down to 39.9*F by 830AM. Lol. Not we’re back up to 62*F as of 11:45AM. Ugh. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 No kidding. Windows up and the birds are singing. A Spring morning indeed. CAD development still seems likely as a series of waves move just west and overhead next 72hrs. Risk ZR-/ IP- on front side of CAD. Contrast this with tommorow at 10am. Gray stratus, winds NNE 10-15 mph. Temperatures mid 30s. Wind chills in the mid 20s. Volitility will be the name of the game next 30 days. NWS still has warm bias. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Nice squall with frontal passage. Clouds were as black as you ever want to see. Peak wind 51mph. A lot of severe weather with this system. Spring conditions for sure. Mid and long range models show stormy weather to continue. Still might crank out a couple of winter storms. Current conditions. Light rain, temp 44, wind WNW 25 gust 36.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Surge of wind this morning. Not with the squall itself but lagging behind it by a few hours with the CAA. About 10mins of frequent 45-55mph gusts with a mist falling. Drying out a bit now, less wind but still 30-35mph. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Also looks like Germantown got hit hard. Some areas where trees are blasted like Feb 2016 in Damascus. Structural damage too. Probably 70-80mph. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Good lord. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Call me a hopless romantic. Artic air digging SE. Low pressure developing in western Gulf. Outside 120 hrs is suspect. We will see how it develops.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 That run was close... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 After seeing the warm stratuspheric plum. I feel better. A lot of warm air is gone. That still gives us a few weeks... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Starting to get interested in the first 7-10 days of February. Don’t wanna jinx it, but there’s potential.In the meantime, tomorrow looks like a warm rain washout. Solid 1”+ of rain possible within 12-18hrs. I'm afrade we got jinx in fact we were talking severe thunderstorms tornados for parts of the state this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Wind is blasting through here again as I’m getting ready to leave for school. I literally saw a “cloud” of pine cones fly off a group of evergreens and travel at least 125ft, all while gaining altitude. Lol. yeah this winter is really getting Comerica lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 After seeing the warm stratuspheric plum. I feel better. A lot of warm air is gone. That still gives us a few weeks... I still wouldn't be shocked if we see something crazy in March this year if there any winter where something crazy happens in March it would be this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Call me a hopless romantic. Artic air digging SE. Low pressure developing in western Gulf. Outside 120 hrs is suspect. We will see how it develops.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Call me a hopless romantic. Artic air digging SE. Low pressure developing in western Gulf. Outside 120 hrs is suspect. We will see how it develops.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 7, 2020 Report Share Posted February 7, 2020 Get weak in the knees and hold my breath..? Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Good lord. More reports. Gnarly. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 Some additional gusts today. Albemarle Co, VA: 62mphSwoope, VA: 62mphMillers, MD: 67mphSotterley, MD: 65mphSt. Mary’s Co, MD: 67mph Peak here was 47mph, however I have lots of trees obstructing the anemometer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2020 And now it’s snowing, lol. Just a brief squall but it’s nice to see snow/blowing snow again. Especially given it was in the upper 50s with lightning and thunder just 12hrs ago, haha. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Looking at this pattern, I am very concerned. Storm track still producing cutters, at leaest at mid levels. Surface CADs just give us rain with temps in the 30s and 40s. Five confirmed F-1 tornadoes by NWS in Maryland with last frontal passage. I will admit, I saw those putrid black clouds. It brings back memories from the South. I am not a severe weather fan. If you are this may be the year. There is plenty of cold air aloft and at the surface, just on the backside here. Above normal temps and dewpoints on the front side of this storm track scares me. Not good.... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 No snow for the Mid-Atlantic. I am a man of constant sorrow. https://youtu.be/YBVnKYOvWcs Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 No snow for the Mid-Atlantic. I am a man of constant sorrow. this is certainly one wrack winter this year hopefuly we see some changes in this pattern over the next few years some keep claiming this is the new norm I can not buy that climate has always been changeing this winter could easily just be one of those rare exstreams in the natural varibity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Cutters. It can't get worse.. https://youtu.be/a6_efthmkAQ Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Cutters. It can't get worse.. I suspect the warm oceans and the bad qbo Enso combinations is what at play and not really human climate change factors,low solar is good but if other factors are in bad very bad phases then it is very possable for the good to be offset by the bad forces at play. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 9, 2020 Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 If you need contact me. I will be under the bed... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2020 Looking at this pattern, I am very concerned. Storm track still producing cutters, at leaest at mid levels. Surface CADs just give us rain with temps in the 30s and 40s. Five confirmed F-1 tornadoes by NWS in Maryland with last frontal passage. I will admit, I saw those putrid black clouds. It brings back memories from the South. I am not a severe weather fan. If you are this may be the year. There is plenty of cold air aloft and at the surface, just on the backside here. Above normal temps and dewpoints on the front side of this storm track scares me. Not good....I’ve been thinking about this lately. The SE-ridge returning as more of a low frequency feature (and the more meridionally-consolidated Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, albeit still longitudinally-extended relative to climo) would hint at a more favorable wave station for severe weather this year. In my gut I’m feeling it too. Who knows. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 11, 2020 Report Share Posted February 11, 2020 R- temp 49F, big shocker. Cold front comes in tommorow. Weak CAD gives us R- 37F Thursday. It will be a mild 50F at 850mbs. The Earth is not getting warmer. Because it is much above here it must be much below somewhere. It's snowing in Baghdad, Iraq. Image from today below. 3.5 inches of snow here so far. Cutters and sliders, oh my..... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 14, 2020 Report Share Posted February 14, 2020 Great view of the recent southward developing snow pack. Climatolicly correct for mid February. Of note are the streamers developing, in Kentucky and Tennesse, as the artic air heads SE. -5F in Champaign Illinois this morning. Walking in snow at these temps has a unique crunching sound. Brings back memories. Hints of a slider 120-180hrs. Hints of strong NW flow with blocking. I believe March of 1960 featured an East Coast storm every Wednesday, or so the story goes.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 14, 2020 Report Share Posted February 14, 2020 12Z still has potential slider. Slightly North of last run. Slight amplification. Maybe nothing, but what's a man to do. Next Arctic push moving over Great lakes.., Everything else is suspect... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 16, 2020 Report Share Posted February 16, 2020 I must admit the weather is askew. Jacques Cousteau said, " In nature there is no good or evil. Things are simply as they are." I say, "There is no such thing as normal weather. The weather simply is what it is." The weather does, however, average out. Will the script flip? It must. A storm could be brewing.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 16, 2020 Report Share Posted February 16, 2020 GFS hinting.. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 16, 2020 Report Share Posted February 16, 2020 Euro has lots of confluence with cold air in place. 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 16, 2020 Report Share Posted February 16, 2020 Wishful thinking maybe. Let's hope there will not be a warm surge in advance. Snow or tornadoes are our options... 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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