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Getting deep at cabin. My little dozer got a work out.

May I suggest that, instead of posting charts that most of us can't read and explaining them in terms most of us don't understand, you post something like: "X indice is showing this. Thus, if it is correct, you guys could be seeing X weather pattern in your region in X time frame." That doesn't seem like it would be very hard. Oftentimes the smartest people are able to elucidate even the most complicated thoughts. See Einstein's early mathematical proof of the Pythagorean theorem.

I never resort to name-calling, though. He takes this a lot more personal than I do. Lump us together if you want, but there is a difference.

Jet Suppression, Retrogression. If you say it out loud it is kind of catchy and has a nice ring to it! Edit: Holy I am sarcastic today.... weird. Is there an analog there? I don't think so.

Mammoth snowflakes in Lincoln right now. It's like baseball's flying around. Each time one hits my windshield it looks like it got pelted with a snowball. Unreal!

I just love how much more intellectual phil and front ranger's argument looks than mine and Jesse's...

Strong correlation factor between the West getting favorable blocking and Jesse not paying attention. Hmm....

Went to dinner with my brother the other night and we reminisced about Seattle winters growing up. Does anyone remember calling the old NWS number (206) 526-6087 and hearing the old British guy say "turning unseasonably cold at the end of the week" or "getting colder throughout the day with snow developing" as an arctic front nailed us. That seemed like a LONG time ago...

12z Alert!! - starting hour 300.... I KNOW... to far out to care. But here is some eye candy!

And just think a couple days ago it virtually had nothing and everyone was jumping ship! Edit: Almost everyone....the die hards still had faith.

Rob has a convert!

I've been lurking around on this forum for about a year. I've been a weather geek since I was knee high to a grasshopper, and even did an internship at the Weather Channel (back in the late '80's when they actually did the weather.) I ultimately took a different career path, and had no idea these forums existed. I have to admit I was quite intimidated when I started reading all of this NAM+ AO- stuff and realized I was not quite the weather geek I thought I was. Though I have rarely been able to understand a majority of Phil's posts, they have still given me a lot of clues for things to go off and try to read up on, and I have many of his posts archived. My work has kept me too busy so I have not had much free time, but I hope things will slow down soon so I can start doing more reading. So as a novice weather geek, I appreciate the techical stuff, but would definitely benefit from any laymen's "what this means is...." or "this generally translates to 'X'....." explanations that can be offered.

Is there a little chilly outflow sneaking in up north? I am still watching the satellite wave loop and the progression of the cold push is a little interesting. I am sure I am delusional.

In his defense, I don't think Phil is here to rain on people's parades, regardless of location. (Have I mentioned location bias is worse than anti-EPO bias?) To be fair, he has gone overboard with positivity for PNW chances once or twice. Makes me wonder...if we had a poster here from the North Pole, would we assume he'd bring white Christmas's to all the good little weenies?

Push out the most knowledgeable poster we have just because he doesn't live in the PNW and you don't understand him? Sounds like a stupid thing to do

ginormous flakes in lincoln currently. Picture does not do it justice.. http://i1228.photobucket.com/albums/ee442/jcwxguy1/Mobile%20Uploads/Screenshot_2016-01-07-14-10-32.png

Interesting to note that East Asia shows a retrogression of wave train correlating to the same timeframe depicted here. Let's hope this NAM reversal can shift a bit our way. Definitely has to put a fight vs the strong jet and Aluetian low though

Here's hoping I can get my zeros off the board this weekend. When all models show snow for me I have no choice but to agree right? :-)

Whoa!.....starting to look like the comment section of a Ford vs. Chevy video on YouTube here.

Good lord, we all know it takes a multitude of factors for the PNW to get all longwave super cold and snowy. Thank god a guy from Colorado and a guy from DC are here discovering this fact for the first time. It's akin to a person from Seattle visiting Vancouver for the first time and asking "what's Burgerville?"

By itself it doesn't mean a ton, there are obviously other factors at work. But, it can be very beneficial to us. Plenty of examples of impressively cold deep -AO months in the PNW. When the AO is deeply tanked in DJF, I'd certainly say it favors us being cold overall. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table AO was -2 or lower in DJF in the following months: February 1956 February 1958 January 1959 January 1960 January 1963 February 1965 January 1966 February 1968 January/February 1969 January 1970 All of 1976-77 February 1978 January 1979 January 1980 January 1985 February 1986 December 1995 January 1998 December 2000 December 2005 All of 2009-10 December 2010 So there are a handful of really bad months in there, but I'd say more often than not it favored cold in the PNW. Either through deep inversions (January 1985 and January 1977) or through arctic airmasses. A disproportionate number of these months featured a PNW cold snap.

12z Euro...

Does anyone here remember the Arctic blast back in December 2009? #AOisnotoverrated

For s**ts and giggles, here's the 11-15 day 12z GFS. Not my forecast, but goes to show how strong polar blocking can overwhelm an unfavorable underlying NPAC component, as it did as recently as November 2014. #AOisnotoverrated

Totally... But according to Phil it will never happen. He is probably right and this is most likely and outlier. Almost did not post it but could not help myself as it looked like a carrot that was to good to resist... And I am weak and desperate.

Me too...when its in the frozen state due to a major arctic outbreak at the end of the month!

I can walk on water.

Polar vortex doesn't look so big and bad anymore! lol

Emotionally.

NAM spelled backwards is MAN. Men are awesome, so I suspect the NAM does indeed suck.

12z Euro Para...

Because you don't understand it, does not mean it's not communicated correctly. Sometimes you can't explain everything in a perfectly clear manner. Not sure what you're getting at. Weather isn't 2+2=4

Some thoughts on this developing storm from Springfield MO NWS 4. While model solutions have shown some convergence, consistency still remains somewhat poor. For example, the 15Z SREF point plumes show a significant spread in snowfall amounts. For Springfield, amounts range from no snow accumulation up to around 10". Quite the spread! 5. The parent short wave trough will eventually phase with a northern stream trough later this weekend. Models often struggle with phasing energy...thus changes in the forecast structure and track of this storm system remain likely. With all of that being said, the operational ECMWF, Canadian, and NAM models all indicate a quickly maturing low pressure system with a wrap-around/TROWAL signature. The operational GFS is somewhat of an outlier with a more open wave. Additionally, SLU CIPS analog guidance indicates a pretty good signal for accumulating snow with this setup. We have therefore nudged the forecast in the direction of the model consensus.

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1124-winter-2015-16-banter-thread/?p=97096

So this strung out look at 500 mb is the problem? It's not real compact.

I didn't call your opinion about that event out, even though I disagree with your take on it, so don't do that to mine. There are plenty of us here who are interested in really cold temps. Nothing weird about it. I'm done with the opinion wars, so either refrain from posts like this directed at me in the future, or just expect no response next time.

Probably, but like most of your arguments it's tantamount to unnecessary weenie hair-splitting. But as always, it's a fun substitute for model riding for us to see two guys 1000+ miles away b*tch about their split hairs in our weather thread.

Need this to phase if we want something big to happen but a few inches is a good start.

Me too except about 2 degrees colder. Another bout of multiple days for 34 degree rain will about push me over the edge. NO really I probably will go freaking Ape s**t if that was the result again. OR at least I would starting throwing Ape s**t...

I received 2" of snow in November of 2014 and I did enjoy the cold...I would be ok with a repeat!

I never said that. Read the first page of this thread.

We just need it to go slightly west, then have a low spin off of Vancouver Island, track over my area, then go south all the way into Oregon and spread snowy goodness to everyone down there also!

Impossible! There's a +PNA! #AOisnotoverrated

12z models injested some bad stuff...probably from Chipotle

I know the winter weather is less than stellar when the forum is dead...

https://www.facebook.com/NWSSeattle/posts/1032630096797396:0 Need to get around to finishing that D**n flux capacitor.

Down to 31F here. Looking like tomorrow morning will be my 25th consecutive freeze. Last day with a low above 32F was a 36 on December 13th.

Let me clarify a wee bit more... You post some graphic that most us have no clue what it is for or how to read... then post some OMG statement with no explanation what your are OMG'ing about, for or where it will impact. If it is not something that impacts our area then why in the OMF'ingG are you posting it here? If there is a correlation to our area then an explanation is needed.. Please! ... OMG!

I appreciate your posts tracking events like these. Keep it up!

Looking out from our back porch 1/3/16 Sorry, its a cell pic...