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Bryant also nailed it. I think he picked up on it during the third week of January, about a week earlier than I did.

The 12z GFS is just a wee bit cold. This has potential to be an historic cold wave for so late in the season. The great 1955 is one of the top analogs.

30 is average, so yes.

March 1867 is the latest subfreezing high event for the Portland region as a whole. Fort Vancouver had a high of 28 on March 16 with an east wind. 1936 is the latest

Thank you Phil. When you're on board with my calls, I have much more confidence they will verify, or at least get close I remember discussing the timeframe with you around the 3rd week in January, then I started discussing it on here at the end of Jan

I'm amazed he's not spending his vacation trying to crush our hopes.

I don't think I've said anything ironic or hypocritical, but sure. I hope you get some snow.

Thank you for real weather talk!

*Model analysis in progress* 12z Euro looks real cold, possibly record breaking cold.

You guys to the north/northwest can have it all. In lieu of a final snowmobile trip this season, decided to do an overnight Milwaukee get away. Currently sitting in a packed beer garden in shorts, sandals, and t-shirt. I'll take this all day long.

I was trying to be helpful. I've never seen you post a model or analyze one. My assumption, and many others I'm sure, is that you weren't confident in reading the models yourself. That will happen when you always ask others to give you your "fix"

Just for the record Seattle did have a "flash freeze" snow event with the 1955 blast. One of the only ones ever recorded in March.

Seriously surprised there is not more chatter about the models.

Needing everyone else to check them for you and update you on them seems more high maintenance.

GFS ALERT! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_47.png

From the MPX morning disco: "One could write a novel about the upcoming long term with regards for more record highs, record warm minimums, record PW, a risk for severe weather on Monday, then ending with a colossal snowstorm (blizzard) on Friday. I can`t recall in my 35 years of forecasting the potential that the week ahead has."

That model is terrible w/ the MJO. Seems to struggle mightily with the Indo barrier effect.

Just a heads up, GEFS is totally missing this upcoming MJO wave as of now, and it will alter the progression of the upper level pattern in medium-long range

Many other countries now require photo ID to vote. It's a pretty logical maneuver.

Here it's a little over 22" on the season so far. I'm not sure what this particular location averages, but YYJ is up to 19.4" and they average 17.2". I've noticed that this area and much of Victoria proper can get much more snow than YYJ going into and during significant Arctic outflow events whereas the airport tends to get more in transitional situations where a cool pool of air gets caught up against the hills before transitioning to rain.

Somewhat lost in all the long range craziness is that a relatively significant shot of cold is likely just 5 days away now.

Share with Dome Buster. ☺

The problem is that photo ID's aren't free and requiring one essentially amounts to a poll tax, which is unconstitutional. It's pretty surprising, but 12% of Americans making less than 25,000, 13% of African Americans, and 11% of 21-24 year olds don't have a photo ID. That's millions and millions of people. http://www.projectvote.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/AMERICANS-WITH-PHOTO-ID-Research-Memo-February-2015.pdf Literally a few handfuls of people committing in-person voter fraud is a tiny price to pay to avoid suppressing millions of people's vote. Republicans don't want to require ID's to prevent voter fraud. They want to require ID's because the people who don't have them overwhelmingly vote Democrat.

Yikes. Reminds me of March 2012. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/533FBD43-84FE-403C-8E0E-D634840CAF33_zps6f9smktq.jpg

Snow squalls moved through here two days ago behind a departing cyclone. Took this (low quality) video at the Rockville MC campus before a think-tank seminar. Accumulated about 1/2" in 5mins, all sublimated 5mins later.

Pretty sure that was sarcasm

Trump Jung Un.

Tim won't admit it, but he is there for he Trump rally!

18z, so far so good.

I think if we can actually manage a really cold upper level airmass this time the details will play out a lot better for Seattle - Everett. Of course this late in the winter the snow can be a lot more hit or miss with big winners. The Feb 2011 event had some pretty amazing convective snowfalls

Obama held a political rally on February 9th, 2009. What's the big deal?

Wasn't Tim saying yesterday was like 75 up there on his car thermometer? That's quite the 24 hour drop in that case!

ORD hit 70 after the last hourly ob.

We also had great events in 1951, 1955, and 1971. Early March has historically been a window for some really great events. After March 10 it gets REALLY rare though.

Deport them to Oregon!

Touchy! Moss Man is a pretty nice guy with a simplistic in his weather enthusiast approach. His only crime is he likes warm weather water sports WAY too much. I'm pretty sure Washington is a sanctuary state for these types of offenders.

It's actually a lot of fun once you get the hang of it. And the more you do it the better you get.

We had 48 hours of 33-36 degree rain during your guys big event early in the month. The January 10-11 storm was the only one that we truly scored and you guys didn't.

This has been a remarkable winter in terms of number of chilly to cold days. I think this might be just a taste of what 2018-19 will be like. The stars could align perfectly for that to be a wicked winter.

Indeed. I'm getting tired of them snow thieves.

Pretty crazy we are looking at another cold snap in the models. If this works out, some people around Shawnigan Lake, who have properties without much direct sun, are going to end up with more than 3 months of snowcover this winter. Insane!

It was the frame that had the 516 line south of me. Thought it looked cold, wasn't really even paying attention to where it showed snow.

That's great news; here's more feedback from NWS_LA yesterday: "Overall, Santa Barbara rainfall totals so far have varied from 3.5" up to just under 9 inches in the Santa Ynez Mtn Range. Ventura County received just over 8" in the mountains and coast and valleys varied from 2.5 to 5 inches with Ojai receiving up to 6.5". As for Los Angeles County. The rain did not pick up until this afternoon, but it certainly left a mark. As of 7 pm...The LA County Mtns have received over 5" while valleys were up to around 2.5 to 3". Coastal areas in LA county were around 1.5 to 2 inches for the most part. So far Downtown Los Angeles have received less than 2 inches, but it will continue to rain across LA County for several more hours. The record for rain at Downtown Los Angeles for today was 2.18" set in 1884. So a bit surprised based on rain totals that Downtown LA will likely come up short of the record."

Thank goodness for 50s and 60s this weekend. I have a frozen drain tile in my yard that needs to thaw out before the potentially severe t-storms on Monday. Being able to turn the outdoor hot water spigot on in mid Feb is a blessing. BBQ and beer on the deck afterwards.

Friday's total was 2.28" here in Modjeska. Weather Underground forecast 3.15", while the NWS predicted 5.91". It looks like the brunt of this storm was the Santa Barbara area.

Some heavy hitting analogs to the 0z GFS. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

Well I took this test years ago and forgot what my score was, but decided to take it again. It definitely has some gems though, such as "Astrology accurately explains many things.". I don't think we can take it too seriously with stuff like that, I mean how does that make some one left, right, authoritarian or libertarian? Anyway here are my results E: -7.25 S: -5.28 I think I was like -5/-9 years ago when I took this.

My statement in regards to proxy time-resolution? Isotope ratios in the ice cores ate highest-resolution proxy currently available. I personally view the "big picture" and "small picture" as part of the same picture. I don't think one can understand the small picture without first understanding the big picture, similar to how a PNW Arctic blast in a super niño may not reflect the "normal" underlying background state in said regime.

And so is the rest of the Holocene before the industrial revolution or before the LIA, or whatever arbitrary cutoff we want to assign. Its a slippery slope like I said. Its relative. Invoking 10,000 years of climate history when the conversation is about the last ~150 years misses the point.